John Evans
After watching the WBA game late on the Saturday evening without knowing what the score was (I purposely stayed away from the scorelines so I could watch the game without knowing the result) I needed a couple of weeks off from football just to recover from the frustration of realising I wasn’t even surprised by the events that unfolded before my very eyes from the Hawthorns. Almunia is a damn poor keeper and Sebastien is a pretty ropey centre half but we knew that anyway so what was the surprise? The sad fact is the cock-ups that cost us yet another two points in this strange title race were of no surprise value whatsoever. These cock-ups have become so commonplace at our club these days that it is more of a surprise when they don’t happen than when they do.
Sure we rallied late and grabbed a point from a game that could have been lost but let’s be honest WBA were there for the taking from the first whistle not just for the last 20 minutes. We went into the game three points off the top with a game in hand so why is it then that we only seem to begin to care when the game looks lost? Why can’t we be raring to go from the first whistle and get the job done against inferior opposition? The only answer to this question can be one of mentality and let’s face facts - our mentality as a club stinks.
It is a fact that winners, when push comes to shove, go up a gear. They raise their game to a new level through heightened efforts and enthusiasm for the job at hand. If a club averaged two points a game all season and they had a winning mentality they would go up a notch in the final games of the season and average above two points a game in the title run-in. Here is where we fall well short as a club. We have averaged exactly two points a game as things stand from the start of the Premier League season to now. 29 games and 58 points amassed in those games. Who reckons come the end of the season we will finish with a total of above 76 points then? That would be the total we would end up on if we maintain our current levels of points taken per game played. If we show ourselves to have a winning mentality we should end up with more than 76 points. If we show more of a loser’s mentality over the coming nine matches we would end up with a total below 76 points and if we maintain our current levels we would end up with exactly 76 points.
I have followed The Arsenal week in week out since I was six years old in 1987. That is 24 years of weekly Arsenal experience and I feel like I can see a winning team when I watch one. And this current bunch of players would leave me with one prediction for the rest of the season, one prediction that I am making with almost 100% confidence in what I am writing. They will not end the season with more than 76 points. In all probability a little bit less as the mentality at our club is not a winning one and hasn’t been for some time. We are happy to finish fourth every season and it shows in our play come April and May every season without fail.
I make a prediction that we finish a minimum of six points off the top come May and we also have to scrap it out with Chelsea for the runners up spot. We will finish above City and Spurs who will battle it out for the final Champions League place the same as what they did last season. If we had the same mentality as we did when AW first took charge I would be pretty damn confident right now about winning the title. We sit five points off the top with a game in hand but vitally we are the only team out of all competitions other than the Premier League that still has a chance of winning the title. That makes a massive difference as United will know that when they take on West Ham at Upton Park tomorrow lunchtime as they have a quarter final in the Champions League to worry about with Chelsea only four days later.
What is the bigger game to them? Playing Chelsea that close makes them more likely to drop points at West Ham whereas we do not have any such problems for the rest of the season. Does this make us favourites? No it does not as you have one very important factor to take into account. History. United are proven over the distance time and time again whereas we are an unknown, in actual fact we are worse than that. We have failed to stay the distance on more than one occasion which makes us someone to take on in my book every time. Whereas United will go up a gear right now or at a bare minimum maintain their points per game ratio from now until the end of the season, we will (and this has been proved in recent seasons) for want of a better phrase ‘go to pot’. Time and time again when push comes to shove we fall well below our usual points per game ratio and fall by the wayside as other competitors rush past us well before the winning line.
If you take into account the calibre of opponents we have to face you would give us a hope of success as I have at earlier stages of the season but as we look at recent results the wheels have already come off with alarming regularity. The fact is we would have beaten Sunderland if the game was played in January at a time when results seem to mean less. That as a statement sums up why our fixture list is of little importance when looking at what kind of chance we realistically have of winning the title. I predict that we fail to beat Spurs, United, Fulham, Stoke and Liverpool. I would be surprised if we amass more than five points from those five matches. I predict wins against Blackburn, Blackpool, Villa and Bolton, Which would give us a maximum of a further 17 points from our remaining nine matches. Who thinks we will gain more? Who would feel confident of that total being higher than 18? Not me from what I have seen over the past five seasons and also from what I have seen recently against WBA, Sunderland and Birmingham. The last time we won a league game comfortably was at home to Wolves and that was some time ago now, back when results seemed to mean less. Back in the comfort zone if you like. Back when players like Samir Nasri were banging goals in for fun. When was the last time he scored by the way? Player of the season? Or player of the part of the season that doesn’t count for much?
This is the players’ chance to prove me wrong, put in a good rally till the end of the season, amass more than two points a game over the last nine matches and then stand a great chance of title success. But based on my knowledge of the game and the mentality of teams that win things on a regular basis I don’t think that will happen and I don’t just see that as down to players like Almunia and Squillaci etc. I personally feel it is a club ethos kind of matter that has spread throughout the entire playing squad so that when it really matters, they go missing. And I would include our big name players in that. Cesc, Samir, Andrei - I would include them all as I don’t recall them going up a notch when it mattered most at anytime in the past or in recent history this season either.
Prove me wrong and I will gladly say ‘I was wrong’ and eat some humble pie. But I do have the strong feeling that come the end of May if you look up the final standings of the Premier League the number at the end of the column that starts with the word Arsenal will be lower than a 76.
(Ed’s note – the new issue of The Gooner – 214 – goes on sale outside the stadium before the Blackburn game today)
