Kevin Whitcher
So six days on from my initial ramblings on Euro2012 so far, here’s some more.
The three sides who would had been expected to win the quarter finals so far delivered. Portugal had to keep plugging away to beat the Czechs, but the deserved goal came eventually and thankfully. I know the Portuguese aren’t everyone’s cup of tea because of certain of the personalities, but as a spectacle, we are far likelier to get a watchable semi-final against Spain than it would have been if the Czechs had somehow sneaked through. And Cristiano Ronaldo and Pepe up against some of their Real Madrid team-mates is a potential soap opera in itself. The Portuguese record in major finals has been fairly decent for some time now, with the nation reaching at least the semi-finals in 2000, 2004 and 2006. Eventually, they are going to come good and this might be their year. To an extent, they are carried by their best players, but tournaments have been won in this way before, not least 1986 when Diego Maradona carried along a workmanlike Argentinian side to glory.
However, my money is still on the Germans, who dismantled a Greek side that were a little too cynical for my tastes on Friday evening. Joachim Low has been at the helm since before the 2006 World Cup, even if Jurgen Klinsmann was officially in charge then. Two semi finals and a final is quite a record, with narrow defeats to Italy and Spain preventing them from fulfilling their promise. What is significant is that, during this time, new blood has been introduced that has improved the team, mixing the established efficiency and organization with some genuine flair. Compared to Spain, to these eyes they are actually a more entertaining prospect, because they seem more incisive and exciting. I think if Spain had Lionel Messi, they would be far more watchable, but without him, the metronomical distribution and keep ball lacks an element of fantasy. Do not get me wrong, it is very good on a technical level, but there is a sense of just waiting for the inevitable with Spain, and an accompanying lack of tension. Perhaps I have become a little bored of them winning all the time.
Their result against France was no great surprise as the French decided to go for caution rather than the jugular. It wasn’t a tactic that suited their personnel and I am not convinced France have ever had the players to deliver such a gameplan. France are at their best when they try to be expansive and Laurent Blanc, an accomplished defender, should consider this as their best way forward. They took apart Estonia in a pre-tournament friendly and went for a win against Ukraine, on both occasions delivering excellent performances. They took their eye off the ball against Sweden with the consequence of finishing second in the group and the attendant meeting with Spain. But they got their tactics all wrong last night and several of their players underperformed. Laurent Koscielny was not one of those though, and did his reputation no harm. I suspect he will be starting their matches next season. It was also interesting to see Yann M’Vila play after all the stories linking him to Arsenal. Although he did little that was noticeable, neither did Gilberto a lot of the time. You only really take notice of holding midfield players when they make costly errors, which is why there are doubts about Alex Song. However, M’Vila seemed to throw a bit of a strop when substituted for perfectly sound reasons given the state of the game. That really does not augur well, and perhaps symbolized France’s main problem – a lack of real team spirit. It is difficult to win a tournament without that.
Spain seem to have it, and seem to be writing a new chapter in the history of football formations by fielding a team without a striker. In a sense though, it is merely what Barcelona have been doing since the day they decided Lionel Messi would play central. The decision has been made to forget the need for a player in an advanced position to hold up the ball as the team move forward territorially, en masse, in possession of it. It allows them to dominate numerically in a congested midfield, but if the passing and movement are sharp enough, then there is no requirement for a 50 yard ‘out ball’. Fabregas is being used in the Messi role, and is certainly an adept finisher as well as a quality creator of chances for others. He may not be as good at Messi beating players with the ball at his feet, but is good enough to ensure at least a goal a game, which is often enough for victory with Spain. They face two difficult tests though. I imagine Portugal will not be quite disciplined enough to overcome them, and it is hard to see beyond Germany as their final opposition, a repeat of the 2008 final and the 2010 semi-final. I think the Germans might actually triumph this time though because of their own improvement.
Naturally, that would depend on beating the victors of this evening’s remaining quarter final between England and Italy. It could go either way. Italy do not seems to have as many star names as they did in the past, but it is difficult to argue against a side stuffed with players that have just completed an unbeaten season in Serie A. That suggests an ability to carve out results and two draws and a win are typical Italian tournament form. At this stage, it is all about results. Performances are a bonus really. Yet, England are getting results too. They do not look anything special, but have played two fairly disciplined matches. Sweden was a crazy game, an aberration that would have had Roy Hodgson tearing his hair out. The two goals conceded there were not the kind of thing I associate with a Hodgson team, and I am sure he will have addressed this since.
There is little doubt that the manager is adept at result football, and frankly, that is England’s best hope. They could beat Italy this evening, even if they have a long record of failure to beat major sides in tournament knockout games. Psychologically, it is something that England need to change. Belief is key to winning trophies (Arsenal take note) and it has been lacking for a long time, with tournament exit after tournament exit digging the nation’s football self-confidence into a deeper and deeper hole. This evening, the key is really to try and restrict the opportunities for Pirlo and Cassano to shape the game. Both are matchwinners. Balotelli is such a wild card that he could do absolutely anything, including seeing his team reduced to ten men. That a number of Italy’s players are on a yellow card that would see a further caution lead to a semi-final suspension is of no help at all. Their players are more than happy to take one for the team, so expect no shortage of niggly fouls to break up any potential England progress upfield.
It will be a tense game. Possibly dramatic. We are due a close dramatic game in the quarter finals. A penalty shoot-out even, and it’s about time England won one of those. Should they beat Italy, it would be a big result and reason for celebration. However, I suspect that would be the end of the road this summer. Germany look another level entirely, a better side than that which beat England 4-1 in Bloemfontein two years ago. But a last four place would be a good return for England given the chaos that led up to the finals this year.
Not 100% sure, but if the muse takes me and there feels like anything fresh to say, I might post again after the semis. If not, then after the final, with less than a fortnight to go before Arsenal’s opening pre-season fixture – the triangle tournament at St Mary’s. A whole two weeks without football!
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