Jim Davis
Yesterday, there was an article on the site raising the question of whether or not the Arsenal management is really trying to win. Indeed, the listless and uninspired second half of the 2013-14 campaign did resemble the work of a club that's accepted a position just below the top. As a result, there are plenty of supporters fearing more of the same this time around. Naturally the summer signing of Alexis Sanchez was a step in the right direction. Also, coupled with a stronger year from Mesut Ozil and a healthy (we can hope, can't we?) year for Aaron Ramsey, things ought to be looking up. But truthfully, it's the more recent acquisition of Danny Welbeck that is most encouraging.
The Welbeck signing is meaningful not just because it puts another top-notch player in a Gunners uniform, but because it specifically addresses one of last spring's chief concerns: The team depended far too much on Olivier Giroud. If Arsenal get what they want out of Welbeck, despite not having addressed a lack of depth on the defence, the attack could be significantly better prepared to keep up with the Chelseas and Man Citys of the world. So now the question becomes: Can Welbeck become a 25-goal a season player for Arsenal?
If we were to ask his now former manager Louis Van Gaal (who's hardly been at Man U long enough to have made a proper judgment of his own), the answer would appear to be a fairly emphatic "no." Quoted in an article for BBC Sport, his outlook on selling Welbeck to Arsenal was puzzling, to say the least. Van Gaal stated that Welbeck's goal-scoring ability—29 goals in 142 appearances for Man U, though it's worth noting many of these appearances were as a substitute and/or playing wing positions—wasn't up to the standard of more experienced players like Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie. Van Gaal also stated that it's his mission at Old Trafford to promote young, local talent, which does make one wonder why Welbeck, who is just 23 years old, was let go in favour of Radamel Falcao. Of course, Falcao is the better talent at this stage, but Van Gaal's actions seem to directly contradict his stated philosophy.
Looking at Welbeck's goal-scoring rate is an interesting place to start, however, for Arsenal supporters looking to approve of the acquisition. And in particular, it's Welbeck's numbers for the English national team that offer some genuine encouragement. Recently, Betfair's EPL news section took a close look at Welbeck, specifically in the context of his time with England. And interestingly enough, the article showed that Welbeck actually has a better goal scoring rate than Daniel Sturridge or Rickier Lambert. Welbeck has scored in 36% of his national team appearances, which isn't half bad even if it's not up to the Rooney standard for international play.
Whether or not this sort of goal-scoring percentage ultimately translates to a 25-goal EPL campaign is difficult to say. Translated directly, the percentage falls short even of Giroud's 44% scoring rate last season (16 goals in 36 appearances, per the EPL site). But Welbeck will undoubtedly have more opportunity for the Gunners than anywhere he's played in the past, be it at Man U or for the national team. Also, we must remind ourselves, he's still only 23, with room to improve. And the latest example of his potential—a two-goal effort in England's victory over Switzerland—showed fine form heading into the season, and this weekend's Arsenal debut against Man City.
All things considered, expecting 25 goals from Welbeck seems optimistic, at least at this stage. If he remains with the club and reaches his potential, he could well become a 25-goal player and the true striker supporters have been waiting for. But in this first year, it seems more realistic to hope for something in the 15-20 goal range and an attack that's generally more well-rounded than last season. Additionally, it'd be wonderful to get 25 goals out of Welbeck, but this may still be a strong development. Decreased reliance on Giroud and a committee of talented attackers should make the attack more dynamic and more dangerous than it was in 2013-14.
