Gary Thwaites
Following our glorious failure in Monaco recently, we are once again out of the Champions League at the first knockout stage. However, as I write this during the international break, we look reasonably well placed to qualify for an 18th consecutive season next year. That would equal Man United’s record for English clubs, with only Real Madrid ahead of us (by one year).
As I contemplate the remaining fixtures of those teams still in contention for a top four finish, trying to figure out how many points we can afford to drop, I find myself wondering why I care so much. More the point, given that it is becoming increasingly difficult to qualify unless you are bankrolled by foreign fossil fuels, do I care too much?
In almost two decades of Champions League participation, we have rarely looked capable of winning it. In 2004, the Invincibles blew perhaps our best chance on paper (in what remains my most painful memory of Highbury), but even then a Mourinho managed Porto would have awaited us in the final and Arsene has yet to beat him in a dozen attempts. Who knows what might have been had Jens not been sent off in the 2006 final, but despite our brave rearguard action we were probably beaten by a better team on the night and they could have been a goal up if Jens hadn’t walked. We were utterly battered in the 2009 semi final by a United team that went on to be outclassed in the final. Aside from those three years, I can remember none in which it ever really crossed my mind that we would go on to lift the trophy. Compare that the teams mentioned in the opening paragraph. During the same period United have won the competition twice and lost two finals. Madrid have won it three times, having also won it the year before Arsenal first entered.
An honest appraisal of our current squad doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we will fare any better next year. How I hope to eat those words next May, but I doubt many reading this will really disagree. Yet when Wenger said recently that it might be better to be knocked out at the group stages and win the Europa League, he was vilified, even though he was only joking. The mere suggestion that a trophy might be worth more than another routine exit from the Champions League was dismissed out of hand. Obviously it is a trophy that has been shockingly devalued by the participation of teams like Swansea, Hull, Fulham and Spurs, but it is still a European trophy.
Different clubs have different ambitions, of course. Champions League qualification was the absolute pinnacle of achievement for that mob down the road a few years ago and that is fine for a club without a league title in half a century. It should not be considered success for the Arsenal, particularly now that the financial shackles have been somewhat loosened. The primary target every year should be to win the title, but Champions League football, particularly when we have to play the qualifying round, undoubtedly makes it harder to achieve that goal. We will never have a squad as deep as City and Chelsea, who can afford to pay ridiculous salaries to squad players, but it might just have been deep enough to finish the job last season, had we not played an extra ten games in Europe. In previous seasons we have relied on late runs to finish in the top four, but it can’t be a coincidence that getting knocked out of Europe has so often coincided with an improvement in our form.
So there we have it, every year I anxiously fret over qualification for a competition that I know we are unlikely to win, despite the evidence that it actually damages our chances of winning other trophies, including the one which matters most. This isn’t a phenomenon unique to Arsenal. Liverpool got as close to the title last year as they have in decades. It was widely anticipated that their participation in the Champions League would make it harder for them to compete domestically this year, and so it has been (albeit the absence of the Uruguayan nibbler hasn’t helped). Despite this and the fact that they predictably got knocked out at the first hurdle, nobody suggests that they would have been better off not qualifying, once Gerrard’s slip had cost them the title.
Our national obsession with Champions League qualification owes much to the self-interest of the media. In the 13 seasons since 4th place was awarded a Champions League spot, the team finishing there has, on average, finished around 18 points off the title, but only five clear of 5th place. This season there is already little interest left in the title race, but still half dozen or so games left between the direct competitors for Champions League places. Of course the media are going to do all they can to hype the significance of those games, as they still have papers and half-time adverts to sell.
The financial significance of Champions League qualification cannot be entirely dismissed on an objective analysis, but football fans are rarely an objective lot. The financial benefits of qualification don’t really have much to do with the emotional energy I expend every year worrying whether we will make it. In any event, the new Premier League TV deal makes it far less significant. Whilst I do not purport to be fully conversant in the intricacies of football finance, the BBC are reporting that the 32 teams who qualify for the group stage next year will each be guaranteed only £8.7million as an “entry payment”, whatever that means. That is around £1.5million less than the new domestic TV deal is worth per televised game. Obviously there are other factors involved, but Man United’s failure to qualify this season did not stop them from signing by far the biggest kit deal in the history of sport. All this, coupled with the influence of the petro dollar, means that Champions League football no longer automatically gives us such a significant financial advantage.
For me at least, the most tangible benefit of regular Champions League football has been the chance to see the best players and teams at close quarters. I remember, as a kid, asking my Dad whether he had seen this player or that player play in the flesh, but there were very few international superstars who he had the opportunity to watch first hand. A generation on and I am hard pushed to think of many, if any, genuine contenders for an All Star XI of the last couple of decades that have not come up against us at one point or another. I have also had the opportunity to visit some of the greatest cathedrals of football (albeit the sight and smell of the gents in the away end at the San Siro will forever haunt me). If we had a few years out of the competition, then I am sure I would miss this, but I don’t think it’s enough to make qualification every year such a burning priority.
Playing regularly in the Champions League also helps attract players. Would Ozil or Sanchez, for example, have come to us if we were not a regular participant? Maybe not but, again, it doesn’t follow that we have to qualify every single year to attract top players. Just look at Man U. They managed to sign (albeit over priced and over hyped) top players this summer. In addition, for the very top players participation is not enough. They want to win trophies, as so many have proved in leaving us over the last 10 years.
As I said above, even if we do qualify this year, we can by no means assume that our participation is going to continue uninterrupted for too much longer. Chelsea, City, United and Liverpool are not going anywhere and the new TV deal means other teams will become more competitive. We must brace ourselves for seasons when we are not in the Champions League, maybe even next year. Would that be such a disaster?
Well, it depends. I could certainly live with a season here and there when we don’t qualify. It might even help us win a title, which would be well worth the sacrifice. My only caveat and the single most significant reason for why I have become so obsessed with qualification each year can be summed up in one word, and it’s a dirty word at that… Spurs. As the observant reader may have gathered from the above, I have little love for Spurs. I have also been giving decades of grief to my many Spurs supporting friends and I will, deservedly, have to reap what I have sewn if they ever finish above us. They have given us some real scares over the last few years and the whole process of qualification is so much more stressful when it is Spurs chasing us. Had they being flirting with the Championship, rather than the Champions League, I have no doubt that qualification would seem far less important to me.
Looking forward, of course I would rather we qualify every year, because I live in hope. However, come the inevitable year that we fail to make it, then I won’t shed too many tears, just so long as it is not Spurs who qualify instead of us. In fact, if you offered me a trade now between Spurs spending a year out of the Premier League for every year we spent out of the Champions League, I am not sure I’d ever want us to play in it again.
