Theo Jensen
Last summer I submitted an article which detailed how the performances of English clubs in the Champions League had taken a steep decline since 2009. It was greeted with a mostly lukewarm response, but another season in which no English club made even the Quarter Finals of the Champions League instigated the long overdue discussion of the Premier League's relative strength, in particular amongst the majority of pundits. This season, even the Europa League didn't witness an English club in the Quarter Finals which again is testament to the struggling state of English clubs.
This issue has become all the more pressing because of Italian clubs greatly improving their results in Europe. The UEFA coefficient, which takes a (somewhat flawed) mean average of all national representatives' European results across the Europa and Champions League, is used to determine the overall strength of each country's top domestic division. Unless there is a major improvement of performances amongst the English clubs in Europe, this trend will soon see the Premier League lose the right to qualification of the Champions League through finishing fourth. At the current rate that would be by the end of next season or the one after.
I looked before at why the top English clubs had declined, and argued that the 'relative spend' arguments were disingenuous given the waning quality of Arsenal's domestic rivals. For this article I wanted to quickly examine - being also interested in what readers think of the Premier League's current situation - whether the league's biggest clubs are likely to make the improvements that are so desperately needed for the good of English top flight football in general.
Chelsea
They are head and shoulders above even their 'closest' competitors. Bringing in the brilliant (if invidious) Jose Mourinho was a major turning point. Most significantly, however, they remedied the deficiencies in their squad and added world class talent to the spine of their team - Courtois, Matic, Fabregas and Costa. Their loss to PSG was probably due to fatigue primarily. Their starting XI is brilliant but overplayed - it is no surprise they used the least players in the Premier League (22). Their new players saw the typical decline of form past January, given the denial of their routine Winter Break. They avoid including very young and older players, hence their lack of squad depth. Mourinho has indicated this summer's transfer activity will address that issue (and only that). I expect them to make a serious challenge for the Champions League next season.
Manchester City
Never mind everything, money can't necessarily buy you Champions League progression past the last 16! I have said before that City lack heart on the big occasions, probably because, as many suggest, their chief motivation for joining the club is money. Pellegrini has now publicly acknowledged that they need an English core, obviously recognising that artificially-based financial solutions are not alone sufficient to guarantee success. They also need to drop their preferred 4-4-2 in Europe, which is suicidal against Europe's elite teams. I don't see that happening as their team is built around Aguero, who is weaker in the lone striker's role, but they will undoubtedly target a number of English players this summer and pay other clubs generously to procure their capture.
Arsenal
This is obviously discussed permanently on this site. Generally, most seem to agree that the team's spine is not strong enough. It is unlikely Wenger will reverse his modus operandi and make the necessary purchases this summer, but the team now is at least settled and has good strength in depth, so I expect an improvement in Europe next season.
Manchester United
This financial juggernaut of a club has already splashed some £150m on transfer fees alone under Van Gaal. That has returned a slight improvement. They will allegedly spend similar sums this summer alone, which stands to reason. It is hard to predict what the outcome will be given the scale of player purchasing, but that they outdo every other club in terms of financial outlay can hardly be in doubt. A new seeding system might mean they have to face a team like Valencia to qualify for Champions League football, and for the sake of the coefficient it might be better that they compete in the Europa League.
Tottenham Hotspur
Embracing a thriftier approach as they try to fund a new stadium, their team is sparse in quality. If Harry Kane stays loyal to the cause and they unearth some rarer talents then they may well improve their Europa League performances.
Liverpool
They have some brilliant players but are virtually certain to lose Raheem Sterling, while the excellent Daniel Sturridge is struggling from prolonged injury problems. They have strong enough star players with Henderson and Coutinho, for example, to build around for Europa League success, but they do have major deficiencies and will struggle to make a smooth transition without Champions League football to attract the best players. Given that, it is unlikely they will mount a major challenge for the Europa League.
All in all, the prospects for the English clubs looks strong enough, but unless there is a drastic improvement in their European results, expect to hear about a 'Third Place Trophy' in a year or two.
Just a quick note at this point to mention that we are recording the end of season Gooner podcast this evening, hosted by Piebury Corner.
Our panelists will be Mike Francis, Mustafa Goldstein and David Oudot. If you have any topics or questions you wish the panel to debate, and get a namecheck in the process, please either…
Email them to [email protected]
Tweet them to @GoonerPodcast
or just leave them in the comments below this article. Thanks.
