Strategic Planning Or Pot Luck?

Are managers really so good at identifying talent?



Strategic Planning Or Pot Luck?

Coquelin – Fluke opportunity


Modern football is more scientific than ever before, or so we are led to believe. Managers talk for hours about emerging projects, developing philosophies, jigsaws that need completing. Player-development is micro-managed. Ice baths, heart-rate monitors, state-of-the-art medical facilities, individualised training programmes, special diets. Metres and analytics. Tactics are debated, millions are spent scouring the world for kids with the mojo. But does any of it make much difference? A quick look at the current Arsenal first team (minus Coquelin) suggests it might be more a case of pot luck. Nearly half the team is there more by luck than judgment and yet, as I write, they are second in the table.

We have needed a top-class keeper for years since mad Jens graced the turf. Quite why we haven’t signed one is a matter of some debate. But lo and behold, this summer our prayers were answered. A little local difficulty occurred at the Bridge. Long-standing servant Cech found himself surplus to requirements and a move was on. Fortunately for us, he didn’t want to uproot his family from London so suddenly we are his number one choice. The usually ruthless Russian has a soft spot for him and overrules his manager. You can bet Mourinho wasn’t happy with it. So without doing a whole lot other than being in the right geographical location, we got ourselves a world-class keeper; fantastic.

Next up is Nacho Monreal who we bought for peanuts from Malaga in 2013 as a back-up for the injury-prone first choice, Gibbs. Gibbs then goes and does what he always does, gets himself injured, and up steps Nacho. The rest as they say is history. He is now one of the top left-backs in the league. He is remarkably consistent and the real bonus if you are an Arsenal fan is that he is rarely injured.

Now it gets really strange. On 12th December 2014, Francis Coquelin is recalled from a loan spell at Charlton as cover for an injury to Ramsey and makes his first Premier League start later that month. Within weeks he becomes indispensible as our main defensive midfielder and one of the first names on the team sheet. Where did he come from? Did anyone realize how good he was? His early career has ‘might have been’ written all over it. Loan spells at Lorient, Freiburg and Charlton suggested he would be one of those players with promise that are eventually deemed surplus to requirements and sold to a second division Spanish team after a peripatetic career travelling around Europe on loan, another Fran Merida or Carlos Vela. If he was in the manager’s mind as the answer to our defensive midfield prayers, it was an odd one to send him out on loan to Charlton. The truth more likely is that he was in the right place at the right time and we didn’t have anyone else. Ramsey’s frailties left the door open and he took his chance.

Once Sagna left for City for a shedload of dosh we had an obvious hole at right-back. The boss duly filled it with Debuchy from Newcastle for around £12m. He showed early promise and looked a good buy. Debuchy however was a victim of the Arsenal injury curse. He had a couple of bad ones; he damaged his ankle ligaments and was out for three months and dislocated his shoulder soon after and spent another three months on the sidelines. Wenger tried Calum Chambers, a right-back cum centre-back who he had bought from Southampton for a sizeable £16m, but his lack of pace made him something of a liability. Up steps a teenage kid called Hector Bellerin whose claim to fame is his speed - he is allegedly the fastest player at Arsenal. While he has plenty to learn and has faltered slightly of late he is a fantastic prospect and has deservedly made the position his own so much so that Debuchy is now agitating for a move. But the real question is, if we knew he was this good why did we spend £16m on Chambers? The answer is that those responsible didn’t.

Last but not least we come to Joel Campbell, our Costa Rican forward. Despite being an experienced international with 50 caps, Joel has had to do a lot of travelling since 2011. Loan spells took him to Lorient, Real Betis and Olympiakos. It is reasonable to say his emergence has been as a result of being the ‘last man standing’. You could be forgiven for wondering whether Wenger would prefer to play anyone else rather than dear old Joel. His first couple of games backed up that view. He looked all at sea but gradually it’s possible to see a proper player in there. He has an eye for a pass, he puts in a defensive shift, and he scores goals. We have found ourselves a potentially excellent player.

These examples raise a lot of questions about football and Arsenal in particular. Do these managers just make it up as they go along? Listen to any one of Van Gaal’s last few United interviews. Here is an experienced, some would say world-class manager; a manager who has spent north of £250m building a side that is currently one of the most turgid United teams in living memory. And what of Mourinho, the so-called special one? Champions last year, relegation candidates this. He sounded ever more paranoid with each interview as he thrashed around trying to work out what had gone wrong; same players different results. What went wrong? The answer is he didn’t know. This was the same manager who in his wisdom let Lukaku and De Bruyne go. That is about £100m worth of talent out the window.

Or, on a lighter note, what about Wenger trying to convince us that Sanogo is the new Anelka? Do these managers really know what they are talking about or is it pot luck? On a slightly different note, how many other Coquelins, Bellerins and Campbells do we have in the ranks that might make us a much better side but who never get to see the light of day? And who is it that assesses whether they will or won’t make the grade? Wenger’s job is made a whole lot harder if those around him can’t recognise whether a player has got it or hasn’t. In the light of this article, maybe some of them need to reapply for their jobs.

Ed’s note – We have received the following information from the club and have been asked to publicise it to make it a success…

There will be a special fan display ahead of Arsenal v Manchester City on Monday. To make this as successful as possible please get to your seats as early as you can and together we can welcome the teams onto the pitch in the true Arsenal way.

No idea what the display will be, but apparently it will be more detailed than the one v Bayern, so please aim to be in your seat at 7.55 so when the teams come out you can help to make it look really special. Additionally, in Greece recently, after their fans had done a pre-match display, the bags they had been handed were all waved around in the air before the match kicked off, and this looked very effective, so hopefully Gooners can imitate that after whatever the message/theme is has been displayed. Of course, this is all dependent on more people getting in a bit earlier than for a typical evening game. The 8pm start will hopefully make this easier.


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16
comments

  1. John Gage

    Dec 21, 2015, 15:08 #80930

    @Bard: I have always thought it was a bit of both, the manager AND luck. When it comes to young players its like popcorn, some pop and some don't but unless they play its very difficult to say.

  2. Ron

    Dec 21, 2015, 12:16 #80928

    AKB - Word is that Podolski wasnt a good trainer and that his lifestyle was far from that of a choir boy. Wenger wdt tolerate it so he was frozen out. He freezes a player out by annoying and frustrating them by playing them out of position as we know. Its probably designed to provoke a transfer request. See Arshavins and indeed Bendtners case. FC looked a decent enough player at one time both at full bck and in the middle. I dont really dig at Wenger over him, trying to sell him/farm him out etc. FC in my view is a moderately decent player, a journeyman really. Not good enough. He s a willing horse though granted.

  3. mbg

    Dec 20, 2015, 16:31 #80916

    Snowbiggee, he makes it up as he goes along alright, and he's been doing it for so long now he has it memorised and it just rolls of the tongue, and to think if Cech hadn't fallen into his and our lap he'd still be bumbling along with Chesney or some other third rater that he imagines is world class.

  4. Snowbiggee

    Dec 20, 2015, 8:38 #80908

    Yes, they do make it up as they go along and no,most have absolutely no idea what they're doing. Wenger tells us all today, via the Mail, that he's realised after 30 years in the game that a great keeper is vital to a team which wants to win major trophies. Really?

  5. mbg

    Dec 19, 2015, 23:04 #80907

    Typical wengerite AKB, when nothing left to say with nowhere to go, insult, but are we surprised ?

  6. goonercolesyboy

    Dec 19, 2015, 22:12 #80906

    No thanks jeffjunior, you stick to whoring yourself out mate, it suits you.

  7. Alsace

    Dec 19, 2015, 21:51 #80905

    Like most situations OGL gets 75 to 85 per cent right. The 15 to 25 percent he screws up is spectacular screw up though. It's a bit like "simply having A wonderful Christmas time" making you want to rip your ears off and "ticket to ride" making you want to glue them on again. He's either brilliant or clueless and it's very frustrating. Btw Lestaaaah, are doing great but everyone else is stinking the place out. Buy in Jan OGL. The league is begging to be won.

  8. sid

    Dec 19, 2015, 18:09 #80904

    Second highest paid manager in world football behind pep and worth every penny.

  9. mbg

    Dec 19, 2015, 17:05 #80903

    Wouldn't it have been nice to still have Maureen at the chavs ballsing things up with the team not playing for him, making them selves a laughing stock, instead of playing one of their best games of the season ? there's only one way for them to go now, the sacking of Maureen could well turn out to be not as funny as some thought. And well done Leicester and Claudio, the AKB's knives are out your making their messiah look foolish..

  10. goonercolesyboy

    Dec 19, 2015, 16:46 #80902

    Monreal cost £8.3 m peanuts and has been tremendous. Chambers was a full back at Southampton but was identified as a centre half/ defensive holding midfield player. Coquelin has been a revelation and maybe needed his loan spells to help his development. Campbell is an established international even if some would question the quality of Costa Rica, mind you they did ok in the World Cup didn't they? But rich to ask his advisors to reapply for their jobs. Leicester look as if they have passed their latest test and what with Pakace and Bournemouth winning, what's the betting jeffjunior will be on later.

  11. John F

    Dec 19, 2015, 13:50 #80900

    We can only hope a bit of luck comes Gabriel way in replacing BFG.Sad to hear about Jimmy Hill today.I remember him being called to run the line at anArsenal game once not many pundits can say that.So famous did he become at my school,that stroking your chin and saying Jimmy Hill meant I think you are telling a porky.

  12. jeff wright

    Dec 19, 2015, 12:13 #80899

    In my view Bard it's often been a case of more luck than judgement with Wenger regarding players that he signs. His bizarre sticking with Almunia for 5 years when better options were available to him proved to be costly. In my view and others it was one of the reasons why he never won the European Cup . Taking account of Wenger's own comments about Ospina being top class ,based on the clown's clean sheets against Prem opposition, plus Wenger starting his latest disastrous Champions League campaign with him rather than Cech in goal , it looks like a case of Wenger again with Cech having been forced by circumstances to sign a player that he probably did not want to sign - for reasons of his own well known rather large ego.I'm expecting him to make more costly mistakes ,he's already done so , in the league .Wenger clearly believes in his myths and never learns from his mistakes and that is why he keeps on repeating them.

  13. Westlower

    Dec 19, 2015, 12:09 #80898

    @Bard, Would you be eager to sign a youngster who scored 18/18 at U16 International level, captained France U17's in the absence of Paul Pogba, scored the goal of the tournament v Brazil at U19 level, before being the leading scorer in the World U20's Cup for his victorious French team. He was nominated for 'THE GOLDEN BOY' award in 2013. He averaged a goal in every other game for Auxerre. His career suffered a down turn with a fractured tibia & later a back injury. Both Spurs & Arsenal were interested in signing him. His name - Yaya Sanogo. It's an example of how difficult it is to predict which player will progress and who will plateau in the fullness of time. The probability is that he lacks technical ability, so maybe his strength & height gave him an advantage over his peers at a young age, consequently flattering to deceive. Unsurprisingly he's been marked down at Ajax where technical ability is king. With time, the talented weaklings strengthen and overtake the precocious types. There is no magic formula, taking opportunities to shine when the chance presents itself is key, as sadly patience is at a premium these days. Chelsea have won the FA Youth Cup 4 times in the last 6 years but their recently departed coach fought shy of giving the younger players their chance with currently 33 players out on loan.

  14. mbg

    Dec 19, 2015, 11:09 #80896

    You've more or less nailed it there bard especially with our old man, luck, as has been said quite often to describe other scenarios we're where we are at the minute more despite him than because of him.

  15. Arseneknewbest

    Dec 19, 2015, 10:22 #80895

    Thanks Bard - Thought provoking stuff for all of us, including AKBs (and very neutral and balanced if I may say so). Apart from pot luck and strategic planning, I think there are other factors too in the Arsenal selection equation, chief among them stubbornness (on the part of you know who) and a known tendency to favour some players over others. Podolski is a good example - a gifted and technical player with a proven track record of scoring. OGL consistently played him out of position and never publicly backed him to my knowledge (although he was of course all too ready to tell us about Sanogo's world class quality...). Who know's what really happened but I'm pretty sure that LP wasn't angling for a transfer when he was sold. A terrible waste of his talent. Chuba's loan to Hull was also mystifying given the dearth of available strikers this season. In the meantime, he is happy to tolerate under-performance from others, e.g. Arteta, Chambers and Feo. There are examples of Arsene's stubbornness ad nauseam, persisting with certain players and refusing to see what everyone else did, i.e. that we needed extra reinforcements. On Coquelin, I'm no football expert (other than having played a bit) but I remember writing on here that it was daft to send him to Charlton. I'm sure I wasn't the only one who saw his natural aggression, strong desire to win, the neatness of his play and how his abilities as a DM made the team stronger. But I suspect Weng probably tried to sell him before reluctantly agreeing to the loan to the Addicks. Indeed if it hadn't been for last year's injury crisis, then I reckon FC would either still be at Valley Floyd Road of he'd be back plying his trade in la belle France. Whichever way you look at it, they got it badly wrong with Coquelin, not just because they overlooked him but because they laboured for many wasted years without a DM.

  16. mbg

    Dec 19, 2015, 9:51 #80894

    Bard, the excuse for a manager we have has certainly taken a long time to complete his jigsaw, every transfer window over the last ten years has needed just two maybe three pieces but no, TOF knows better it doesn't, and bumbles on forcing pieces in that don't fit. How many teams did fergie build (successfully)when he was bumbling about trying to work out the shapes of the pieces? And it's the same this time round and it's going to be no different this time no matter what his disciples think.