Frank Lee
Both Arsenal and Liverpool registered impressive victories in their final warm-up games last weekend. Jurgen Klopp’s side beat Barcelona 4-0, whilst Arsene Wenger’s team defeated Manchester City 3-2 in Sweden. Of course, pre-season counts for nothing, and a lot more will be read into the result when the two sides face each other tomorrow afternoon. The bookies favour a home win over any other result, with Bet365 offering 7/5 on an Arsenal victory - Read SmartBets' comprehensive Bet365 review here.
Liverpool’s record at the Emirates has been anything but spectacular in recent seasons. They last won there on the opening day of the 2011-12 season (a week later Arsenal lost 8-2 at Manchester United and were forced to buy four players in the final two days of the transfer window as a consequence). Since then, they have lost three and drawn two, including an FA Cup tie, when visiting the Gunners.
However, there is a feeling that, in spite of the bookmakers’ odds, it could be time for another Liverpool win. Arsenal might have beaten Manchester City last Sunday, but at least they played the vast majority of the game with one of their established centre backs. Gabriel’s injury – deep, ironically into injury time leaves Wenger without any experience in central defence. With Laurent Koscielny not ready to start after returning to training less than a week ago, a partnership of Calum Chambers and new boy Rob Holding looks the most likely to take the field tomorrow afternoon. It is possible that Wenger might choose to play one of his more experienced full backs there – Monreal or Debuchy have covered in the position in the past – but either way, it sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Daniel Sturridge may be unfit for Liverpool, but there is an argument that in reality, Roberto Firminho and new signing Sadio Mane are ahead of the England forward in Klopp’s plans. The German has expressed his satisfaction with his squad, stating that there are no players at the club that he is not happy with. Four of the new arrivals over the summer have come from German clubs, and Klopp has had a full pre-season with the far more of his squad available to work with than Arsene Wenger has enjoyed.
Then again, there is less settling in to do for Arsenal’s players, because very little has changed. Granit Xhaka and Rob Holding have arrived, but in terms of tactics and team selection, there probably aren't going to be too many changes to Wenger’s first eleven when everyone is fit and available. And there is the problem. As well as his two centre-backs, Wenger will be without Olivier Giroud up front, and Mesut Ozil has not yet played a minute of football since the European Championships semi-final defeat for Germany.
Wenger will almost certainly be signing defender Shkodran Mustafi from Valencia before the end of the transfer window, and the bid for Jamie Vardy indicates he is not happy with his options up front. He has cash to burn and, unless there is a hidden agenda at the club, no obvious reason not to spend it. With only three fixtures before the close of the window and an international break, the suspicion is that he is prepared to gamble and wait for new arrivals in the hope of striking a better deal, even if he can afford to pay the prices that would persuade Valencia to part with Mustafi and Lyon to sell striker Alexandre Lacazette without waiting another fortnight.
He will hope that a midfield of Granit Xhaka and one of Mohammed Elneny or Francis Coquelin (and the weakness in central defence suggests the latter will partner the only major Gunners signing of the summer so far to provide more protection) can provide enough resistance to prevent Liverpool scoring an opening day win, and that the use of Alexis Sanchez as a centre forward will address questions about Arsenal’s abilities to break down organised defences at home.
My conclusion – Liverpool are more ready, and at longer odds are worth a punt. They may be a work in progress, but are likely to start like a train and unsettle Wenger’s weakened side. Expect a similar home crowd reaction to the 3-1 defeat against Aston Villa that kicked off the season three years ago if the rails do come off and Liverpool take all three points tomorrow. I wonder what the bookies might offer on a chant of “Spend some f***ing money” being heard at some point after 5pm tomorrow?
