Neil A. Fry, Arsenal Audit
Injuries
Laurent Koscielny was risked by Monsieur Wenger’s own admission, following the Liverpool debacle, but thankfully without any ill-effect. Aeron Ramsey wasn’t so fortunate in the 14 August match and was left on after flagging up a hamstring niggle at half-time. A soft-tissue “injury that will require two or three weeks” morphed into an October need for a complete pre-season and his eventual return off the bench on 29 October left one of the stars of the Euros unavailable for two and a half months. Arsenal Audit’s concern over Monsieur Wenger exacerbating Arsenal’s poor injury record by not listening and taking unnecessary risks appears to be prescient. The manager has, however, recently denied that has overplayed players. “We test the fatigue level of everybody, for example I tested Alexis because he played two games in South America. Sometimes I rest him straight away after [the internationals]. I played him the other day against Swansea so I thought I would take him off when it is possible. We consider every case individually. Also, some positions are more demanding.” Given Alexis’s past history in the red zone, this must be a new - but very welcome - development.
Rotation
For the home tie against group make-weights Ludogorets Razgrad, Monsieur Wenger at last (League Cup excepted) pursued sensible small-scale rotation – without, in his own words, upsetting the balance of the team. Or perhaps, after last season’s Panathinaikos debacle, being accused of arrogance and complacency? Kieran Gibbs and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain were rewarded for some solid efforts and cameos by starting. But might not little used new signing Lucas Perez, have been given one of the two starting forward regulars a rest? Happy to operate anywhere across the frontline, his cameo which left him with a return of 2 goals and 3 assists from two substitute appearances, suggested he wouldn’t unduly imbalance the team. And, with Granit Xhaka suspended for the following 3 matches and Francis Coquelin returning from injury, might he not have started alongside the industrious energy of the little used Mohamed Elneny? Perhaps it might of lead to a little more having been of left in the collective tank against Middlesbrough?
It was widely thought that Granit Xhaka, a £35m new signing and first defensive midfielder Arsenal have paid for since Invincible Gilberto would quickly usurp the internal solution returnee from Charlton Athletic. After the Middlesbrough match, Francis Coquelin had started 6 Premier League matches and played for 504 minutes, Granit Xhaka 4 (2 due to Francis’s injury), and 408 minutes. Allowing for game time, their interceptions and tackle rates are fairly similar, albeit Granit wins more. Francis wins more duels, especially aerial ones, but Granit makes twice as many clearances. Their accuracy rates are the same (89%), but, as expected, the latter also makes many more passes and many longer. Granit creates more chances and has a good long range shot, and goal, to his name. But Francis has prevailed in Monsieur Wenger’s team selections over his expensive 48 capped international team mate.
The ‘Coqzorla’ pairing
Earlier in the season, with an unprecedented set of mid-field options to call upon, Monsieur Wenger addressed the - for many surprising - lack of game time Granit Xhaka and Mohamed Elneny were, thus far, getting. He explained that for him it was “all about pairs who work together … You know, Coquelin and Cazorla have worked well together”. The partnership excelled in 2015, before injury put paid to it and Francis Coquelin certainly seemed less effective with his longer injured partner missing almost all the second half of the season.
By asking his diligent compatriot to operate much higher up the pitch (in marked contrast to Alex Song’s post-Fabregas frolics of his own) Monsieur Wenger’s contre-presser has allowed Francis Coquelin to use his ball-winning capabilities and athleticism in front of the penalty box at the opposite end if the pitch and force transitions in much more threatening and creative areas (and then return to deeper defensive duties). But, it surely now seems even more perverse that no one was brought in to supplement Coquelin, before Mohamed Elneny and Granit Xhaka? For Coquelin has welcomed the additions to the squad and thrived on the genuine competition for his place that the ageing Mathieu Flamini could not provide.
What Coquelin lacks in offensively creative passing and movement, Santi Cazorla more than makes up for. As Monsieur Wenger explained, ahead of the Sunderland match. "When Santi is out we miss the pass from deep midfield to high midfield, security on the ball, getting out of pressure. When we are getting closed down, he gets you out of tight situations and creates openings for the team. There is as well a good understanding between him and Mesut Ozil.” Cazorla’s safety in possession in dangerous deep waters also means he can evade the in vogue high-press a lot easier than many. As Charlie Eccleshare has noted, the difference between Arsenal's results with him in the team and when he's missing is stark. Since the start of the 2014-15 season Arsenal have won 65.5% of the Premier League matches in which Santi has started (36 out of 55), compared with 40% when he has not (12 out of 35). That's a difference of 2.1 points per game compared to 1.6, or in other words title-chasing form versus Europa League form. Cazorla is third in Arsenal's Premier League rankings this season for assists, chances created and touches, and second for pass accuracy. His ability to move the ball quickly and forward, not sideways, also gets the best out of Mesut Ozil by getting the ball to him in dangerous areas before opposition defences are set. The two players have passed more to each other than any pair in the whole of the Premier League this season, and since the start of 2015-16 season the German international has averaged 70% more goals or assists per game when Santi is in the team compared when he is missing. Remarkably, the 5’6” Spanish international, who will be 32 in December, is also third in the rankings for distance covered, at 11.2 km per 90 mins.
Cazorla cost Arsenal £10m from Malaga in 2012, Coquelin £850,000 as a 17 year-old in 2008. Last season Arsenal coped with the pairs absence in December, until the 0-4 defeat at Southampton and then New Year turning point that saw Arsenal’s title pretentions implode again. This season, Arsenal's two poorest league results (the home defeat to Liverpool and goalless draw against Middlesbrough) came when Cazorla did not start. Unfortunately for the energetic and industrious, but less creative, Mohamed Elneny – those were his first two starts. Thankfully, the team left Sunderland pitch much happier and Mohamed enjoyed a decent match too.
British core
Theo Walcott continues to hit the headlines and with his poached goals against Swansea and longer rage strike against Ludogorets, added three more goals to his overall - and very varied - tally for the season – the top Englishman. Whilst, Alexis edges him by a goal and assist in the Premier League (having had an extra 26 minutes on the pitch), and they are equal on eight goals in all competitions, Theo’s tally of tackles, clearances and interceptions continues to far outstrip his season-after-season hardworking colleague. Returning to a point made last month, it really is testimony to how the expectations have changed that one of the pioneers of the high-pressing game, the highly exacting Pep Guardiola, has even dropped Aguero because of his lack of work off the ball.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has seemed to find some inspiration from his Arsenal and England colleague. Whilst he can still struggle for consistency and confidence, and he remains unlikely to be an automatic starter unless others are unavailable, his improvement in form has seen him securer on the ball in dangerous areas and, at last, adding significantly to his previously woeful goal and assists tally. Remarkably, his 5 goals so far this season is his best seasons’ tally.
Having done a decent job when called upon, Kieran Gibbs at last got a Premier League start and to very good effect. As the Editor said, he would have been deserving of a start regardless of Nacho Monreal’s injury. His form, like Alex Iwobi’s (albeit he has the excuse of youth), has dropped a little and both him and Oxlade-Chamberlain would be deserving of a start against their old local foes.
The England trio were rewarded with their returns to the England World Cup qualifying squad… if the honour can be called a reward.
Prospects
This review of October has been the most positive Arsenal Audit since it started in 2011. The main reason for that being that, prior to going monthly this season, it was written after either the traditionally disappointing January window, when injuries and squad deficiencies went unaddressed, or another title challenge had imploded long before the season end. Nevertheless, Arsenal are unbeaten in 14 matches and avoided the October banana skins with 6 wins and a draw, 16 goals for and 3 against in all competitions. The drawing blemish was replicated by rivals Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur on more than one occasion and Manchester United’s 37 failed attempts to breach the Burnley goal at Old Trafford demonstrate that, with a little luck, any well drilled Premier League team can frustrate. Manchester City, returning to their goal-scoring ways returned edged Arsenal off temporary top spot leaving three teams on 23 points and Chelsea one point behind Liverpool in fourth. Tottenham 2 points behind could draw level with Arsenal next Sunday. The Premier League has so far been every bit as competitive as expected.
As Monsieur Wenger acknowledged, “We now have some difficult games coming up, we have a difficult November, so by the end of the November we’ll know more about ourselves, but the desire and the mentality is great in the side. We have a great togetherness and we have quality as well, so they are good ingredients, but we have to show that we can do it week in, week out.” November has not always been kind to Arsenal and they face three defining matches in succession. And, for a very long time, successive defining matches have rarely gone well for Arsenal at any stage of the season. Last of the three is the home tie against Paris Saint German which as the potential group decider will test Arsenal’s poor record at home in the Champions League and poor tactical discipline. First (ahead of which this article was submitted) they must beat Ludogorets away and Arsenal Audit isn’t taking that match for granted. The Bulgarians, and Brazilian’s, showed enough in the first 40 minutes at The Emirates to suggest that with the backing of a partisan crowd they could be more of a threat than some think. After all, in the last 10 years Arsenal have lost away to Dinamo Zagreb, Olympiacos twice, Shakhtar Donetsk – and also thrown the top of the group slot through resting players. The manager has some tricky decisions to make in team selection.
Before PSG Monsieur Wenger faces his two biggest bogeys at once: Jose Mourhino and Old Trafford in the Premier League. The Special One is looking anything but special these days and his expensively thrown together squad of misfits languish 8th in the table 8 points behind Arsenal and with a goal difference of just +1. But nothing would improve Mourhino’s unhappy life in Manchester more than tactically outwitting Monsieur Wenger yet again. For the only people that seem to dislike the Arsenal manager more than him is the site’s anonymous and ultra-negative collective – ‘Arsenal AUTHENTIC’ they could be called. Wenger’s a fraud, Wenger OUT! Wally’s a fraud. Wenger OUT! Alexis as a false 9 is a fraud. Wenger OUT! Arsenal Audit’s a fraud. Wenger OUT!
First up the manager faces an undefeated Tottenham who have stalled a little as the absence of Harry Kane, but whose return is imminent and ill-timed, eventually told. Their young and demanding manager has yet to lose to his senior North London rival in the Premier League. This time he will face an Arsenal with a high-press of their own. The return of Santi Cazorla, helping to dodge Tottenham’s press, Theo Walcott and Hector Bellerin after his ‘little incident’ at the end of Champions League training, would enhance their chances as would a clean bill of health for any key players who are required in Bulgaria.
Two points from the two Premier League matches wouldn’t be the end of the world (although another home derby draw would be disappointing). Losing the derby at home would. As would yet another League defeat at Old Trafford and to Mourhino (especially given his current struggles). Four points, or even six, would suggest that to the more experienced and deeper squad, stronger spine and modern tactics, Arsenal have also finally acquired some of the new found mental strength the manager believes they have. On or before Wednesday 23 November, we will know a lot more about that and their pretentions for the season…
Sources:
On injuries:
http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20160818/team-news-ramsey-iwobi-koscielny
http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161013/team-news-ozil-giroud-and-ramsey
Fatigue testing:
http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161028/wenger-my-approach-to-resting-alexis
Missing Santi:
http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20161028/boss-what-we-miss-when-we-miss-santi
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/10/24/arsenals-draw-with-middlesbrough-shows-santi-cazorla-is-the-play/
