Neil A. Fry, Arsenal Audit
The ‘2’ without ‘Coqzorla’
There was no shortage of rotation this month, although over-playing Alexis remains a big concern for yet another season. Last month Arsenal Audit examined the success of the ‘Coqzorla’ pairing in in some detail. With Santi Cazorla’s achilles injury much more serious than first believed, another long-term injury to the diminutive 30-something deep-lying playmaker has made the need to find an alternative all the more urgent. In his absence, the rotation has sometimes seemed more out of desperation than design.
Of course it is good that Arsenal's resources in the positions are now very much richer than an aged, unathletic and injured Flamini and Arteta. So far in the Premier and Champions Leagues, Monsieur Wenger has tried six different pairings. After the preferred ‘2’, Coquelin and Elneny seemed to be the next preference (four starts together), yet this hugely sacrificed offensive creativity. Xhaka had his chances alongside Cazorla (four) primarily due to Coquelin’s injury. Coquelin and Ramsey, surely doomed to fail, and Xhaka and Elneny had one go each. Arsenal Audit’s preferred ‘2’, in the absence of Cazorla, is a high-pressing Coquelin and a deeper-passing Xhaka, and these were afforded two goes. Yet Monsieur Wenger doesn't entirely seem to trust his expensive and much heralded summer signing, a fan favourite of many, it isn't clear why. The evidence suggests that the welcome patience afforded to Alexis as a false-9 might also be well rewarded. The Coq-Xhaka partnership suggested a healthy alternative to Coqzorla, marrying different strengths. The former, more athletic, pressing high up the pitch, tackling and intercepting to force dangerous transitions, the latter happier deeper and with a wide-range passing game to suit, and when he does advance, goals long- or shorter-range to add.
Game management/substitutions
Ahead of the season and after the end of August, Arsenal Audit compared the management attributes of the key Premier League rival managers. These included Mourhino’s tactical prowess, game-management, ruthless substitutions, motivational skills and a winning mentality (albeit on the wane – the Portuguese King Joffrey doesn’t seem so special anymore). And Conte, Guardiola, Klopp and Pochettino adding a clever and well applied high-pressing game as they too passionately prowl their technical areas excelling at highly proactive game-management. Monsieur Wenger on the other hand seemed passive by comparison and kindly and forgiving of his players’ individual and collective failures.
The three season-defining key matches were notable for slow starts and the contre-presser disappearing without the touch of a button, without the Captain or anyone else on the pitch able to effect any change. As for Monsieur Wenger, he appears happy to wait until the comfort of the half-time dressing room before reacting to matches going badly off plan. The other big issue remains substitutions and the inevitable wait until over an hour to make changes that were so clearly necessary. Arsenal were struggling in the two key Premiership matches, yet Monsieur Wenger waited until the 65th and 73rd minutes respectively for the first changes. Monsieur Wenger can normally be relied upon at least to bring on a defensive substitution to defend a lead, but against a PSG pushing for the goal that would give them control of the group, Monsieur Wenger waited until Alex Iwobi’s own-goal and it was too late.
British core
Ludogorets waltzed passed Kieran Gibbs to score their second, but the then-injured Nacho Monreal suffered far worse at the hands of wing-back Antonio Valencia at Old Trafford. Gibbs’ dubious reward of the League Cup Captaincy provided the end of a frustrating month for him. He didn’t quite do enough, after some useful cameos previously, to oust a somewhat exposed-by-his-colleagues and struggling first choice, Nacho Monreal.
Theo Walcott struggled offensively along with his team-mates from other shores and his close-range header against Bournemouth marked a welcome return to his goal-scoring. Ironically, having been exiled and publicly outed, Mourhino-style, over his defensive output and failures, that has become the most reliable part of his game.
Monsieur Wenger has also commented publicly about confidence issues dogging Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. Yet somehow he put his performance against Tottenham behind him to stride past a new young England starlet successor, Marcus Rashford, and put in a great cross for the Old Trafford equaliser next time out. His performances can be infuriatingly inconsistent, but he has nevertheless significantly improved of late and was rewarded with a start against Southampton – a double British Core start on the wings. Two notable improvements to his game have been not ceding possession in dangerous and often deadly positions and taking a leaf out of Theo's new book - thankfully not about babies or coffee-makers - the modern day wide man’s defensive duties.
Offensively, Alexis is very much the star of the show with eleven Premier League goals, four assists and 35 chances created – not a bad return for an Arsenal Authentic! ‘fraud’ of a number 9. His work-rate seems to have been a growing inspiration for his colleagues’ work-rate and even the manager. Given that Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has had around less than half the game time, his stats in terms of tackles, clearances and blocks are very similar to Theo’s and, in terms of interceptions, much better. Alexis on the other hand, is still way behind both in terms of tackles and interceptions and has no clearances or blocks to his name.
Having returned from his opening-day injury, after an unimpressive outing in his preferred number 10 position, Aaron Ramsey hasn't shown any signs of making that position his own or indeed any other. Certainly not left wing. Mesut Ozil, in addition to keeping Arsenal’s offensive effort going forwards has a good understanding with Alexis and is scoring goals. Francis Coquelin has been an even stronger presence high up the pitch breaking up play, but the tactic requires defensive discipline from his partner that Ramsey lacks. And Walcott has made the right wing his own, where Ramsey had some success last season, using his pace to find the space vacated by Alexis and scoring goals and now diligent defensively. This season, so far, Ramsey seems further than ever from recapturing old, or more recent Welsh, glories.
November
The last six seasons have seen Arsenal struggle when the season starts in August and then often pick up in September and October, as they have done this season. Two of Arsenal's traditionally strongest months, they average 2.14 and 2.15 points per game respectively. Throughout Monsieur Wenger’s reign, Arsenal have struggled in November with a points per game ratio far worse than in any other month and way down on their average for the rest of the year. Over the course of 78 Premier League matches in November since 1996, Arsenal have picked up 1.59 points per match, with the next lowest 1.88 in August, and the average for the other nine months 2.03. This month the win against Bournemouth saw a slight improvement to a monthly average of just 1.67 points and once again Arsenal couldn’t shake off their November woes. Also, of their last nine November Premier League matches immediately after Champions League games, Arsenal have recorded just two wins. Why do they keep struggling in November? I suggest two reasons.
Firstly, by November Arsenal’s injury problems often start to hit hard. Last season they began November with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Theo Walcott, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Danny Welbeck, Tomas Rosicky, Mikel Arteta and David Ospina all in the treatment room. This season Danny Welbeck and Per Mertesacker were injured before the season started and by November were joined by Lucas Perez and Santi Cazorla. During November, Hector Bellerin joined them on the casualty list. With Monsieur Wenger finally assembling a fit-for-purpose squad in terms of depth and general quality this season, it seems less a question of overworked players beginning to feel the effects of a busy start to the campaign. Nevertheless, three crucial players seem to have been particularly overplayed - the injured Cazorla and Bellerin, and Alexis who again seems close to his physical limit. Secondly, poor results earlier in the campaign increasing the risk of rotation as points need to be made up. Last season, particularly with the disastrous start to the Champions League campaign, there was an added importance to the November fixtures and this lessened the opportunities to rotate the thin squad. Thirdly, Arsenal often face key rivals and have struggled. Last season’s draw with Tottenham was repeated this season and, with the draw at Old Trafford, saw four points dropped in the first two Premier League matches. The one occasion Arsenal didn't face one of their main rivals in November over the last 10 years was in 2011, when their points per game rocketed up to 2.33.
Prospects
In its review of last season, Arsenal Audit argued forcibly that rather than the progress, change and development that Chief Executive Ivan Gazidis had claimed, Arsenal were going backwards. The Board must have believed him, and their annual gift of charitable largesse went to him, in the form of a one-million-pound bonus, rather than Arsenal’s silent absentee owner.
Since last season's disappointments, however, there have been some signs of progress this season. Finally, Monsieur Wenger dipped into the Club’s lavish reserves. A more experienced and deeper squad and stronger spine have left Arsenal less exposed when Francis Coquelin is out. With Per Mertesacker injured, new signing Shkodran Mustafi has added pace to the central defence. The more modern pressing tactics, when they happen, are usually allied with more offensive pace and movement. Monsieur Wenger’s patience with moving Alexis to be (a false) 9 has been richly rewarded, with Olivier Giroud having largely to settle for a role as an (excellent) impact sub.
However, significant barriers still remain. Firstly, August. As the Arsenal Audit review of that month revealed, ever since the Club abandoned the Austria pre-season for the financial riches further afield, six seasons ago, Monsieur Wenger has struggled to prepare the team adequately for the start of the new season. Another poor start left Arsenal five points behind the leaders going into September. Then there is November. Arsenal’s slightly improved 1.67 average points is a poor return for a team with title-pretentions and the manner of the performances in the three critical matches, and team selection for Old Trafford, suggested ongoing issues with the much-claimed, but not so often visible, mental strength. A third major stalling point has been coping when Santi Cazorla is injured. As Arsenal Audit explored last month, an average of 2.1 points per match with him, but only 1.6 without. In his absence, and the brief absence of Coquelin this season, five other pairings have been attempted. Surely, Monsieur Wenger should be able to coax at least one of them to do a similarly effective job, now Santi is injured long term. (Ironically, not so long ago, players over 30 soon found themselves on the manager’s scrap heap). There are also two further longstanding issues - Monsieur Wenger’s enduring passivity over game management and substitutions and the fact that the substitutions seem to be getting later and later.
Arsenal’s resoluteness in coming back from behind, scoring late goals, their good away form (where the home team doesn’t tend to park the bus), should not be dismissed. In keeping their unbeaten first team run intact, Arsenal kept the gap to just three points behind the leaders when November was done and dusted. Yet in many ways the resoluteness and late goals are a false positive – much in the way that the equaliser after the capitulation to Andy Carroll’s hat-trick was at Upton Park last season. A real positive would have been a repeat of the performance against Chelsea – starting confidently and on the front foot and taking control in the first half and then comfortably seeing out the match. The performances in garnering the two Premier League points and throwing top spot in the Champions League Group* suggested that, whilst not the end of Arsenal’s world, Arsenal’s players have insufficient mental strength, and Monsieur Wenger insufficient all-round management skills, for today’s game to win the Premier League for the first time since 2004 and, 2006 apart, the Champions League is as far away as ever.
Monsieur Wenger’s ‘Project Youth’ (Denilson, Song, Diaby et al.) did not overcome the burden of the new stadium debt-repayments. And the British core have fared little better consistently. Abramovich and then Mourhino took over at Chelsea. Manchester City enjoyed new-found wealth of their own. The game kept evolving and then a new breed of younger stellar-managers were attracted to English Clubs. Winning the Premier League was never going to be any easier this season. In the final year of his (existing) contract, Monsieur Wenger has made an admirable attempt to attain the true glory that has been absent since 2004. But there is a suspicion that deep down, after 20 years in the role, he worries that - beyond the comfort zone of a top-four finish and Champions League qualification - he still can’t quite compete with his key rivals and get Arsenal over the real finishing line.
* Written before Basel
Sources:
On November:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/11/01/why-are-arsenal-always-so-bad-in-november/
Player stats:
http://www.arsenal.com/fixtures/first-team/stats-centre?type=player-stats
