Neil A. Fry, Arsenal Audit
Alexis Alejandro Sánchez Sánchez
After Alexis’s hat-trick at the London Stadium, BBC MotD star pundit Alan Shearer wondered why he hadn’t been tried there before. Of course, he had been. When Alexis first joined Arsenal, he played upfront twice before Arsenal bought Danny Welbeck, following Olivier Giroud’s injury, and then a few more times – with Welbeck moving left. Shearer did know about goal-scoring. Yet he had just one Premier League winners’ medal and nothing at international level to show for it. He went on to say that for Alexis to be regarded as world-class, Arsenal had to win the Premier League this season. Surely, it isn’t reasonable to make one player responsible for the performance of the entire squad, manager, coaching, management and medical teams and the Arsenal Board? And in any case, Alexis has already won the Chilean league title, La Liga and Copa del Rey for Barcelona, and - with Chile usurping the South American giants Brazil and Argentina - the last two Copa Americas. Alexis scored the winning goal in the penalty shoot-out in the first and received the player of the tournament award in the second.
With Alexis and Özil in central roles, it means the two star offensive signings play where they can be most involved and have most impact, and put their long-standing good chemistry to its most explosive effect. Moreover, whilst on a bad day he can overdo it, Alexis as a false 9 often drops back into the midfield or wide left, leaving the opposition centre-back with the dilemma of either having to track him and leave vacant space for others to attack or leave him to drift deep and then either drive at defenders and/or play others in. Özil, from the centre, and Theo Walcott, from the right, have been highly adept at quickly inhabiting the vacant space to get goal-scoring opportunities themselves. At West Ham, Alexis set up Özil again before his own top-quality hat-trick. At Basel, Lucas came in from the right to inhabit Alexis’s vacant space and helped himself to a hat-trick of his own. Against Stoke and West Brom, Alexis had busy days as Arsenal attacked at will, and his surging run at the defence led to Iwobi’s goal against the former and he was unlucky not to score himself against the latter.
Alexis scored from a free-kick at Everton and put Walcott through into the centre-forward position on a counter-attack to score at Manchester City. Alexis’ incessant pressing of centre-halves, willingness to drop back into midfield and chase back when the opposition had the ball also offset Özil’s differing work ethic. Above all, set up with Alexis as a roaming false 9, Arsenal can operate with much more pace and movement than we saw last season. This has offered Arsenal an attacking fluidity, fluency and unpredictability that was so often so painfully lacking. The successful rehabilitation of Danny Welbeck, operating from the left, would offer an even greater offensive cutting edge, setting his scoring capability afainst to the Alexeses (Iwobi and Chamberlain), and a top-quality high press.
Monsieur Wenger seems to have made several joyless attempts, not least the very public refusals over Suarez and from Vardy, to sign a more mobile successor to van Persie than Olivier Giroud. This season, having patiently persevered when many including Arsenal Audit and Arsenal Authentic! would have thrown the towel in, he has solved the world-class centre-forward conundrum internally – with a player, like van Persie, who is a world-class but far from conventional no 9.
Mesut Özil
Whereas some still seem to doubt that Alexis is the answer to Arsenal’s failure to sign what would now be a £50-100m centre-forward (not least Arsenal Authentic!), Arsenal’s other major star signing’s overall contributions are significantly less appreciated. Whilst Özil’s kilometres-run stats have never proven to be an issue, some prefer simpler more visible homely virtues to what the German 2014 World Cup-winning star offers Arsenal – like players coming off the pitch looking like they’ve come off the Somme battlefield. Yet others of the same great skill/‘defensive frailty’ ilk seem to have been tolerated rather more. Kevin de Bruyne’s failure to track Hector Bellerin on a deep counter-attack was directly responsible for the Arsenal goal at the Etihad. Perhaps that was the reason that Jose Mourinho discarded him after half a season at Chelsea. But he never attracts anything like the same opprobrium as Özil. Similarly, Eden Hazard. After a flurry of comment from keyboard warriors and the media, Monsieur Wenger assured supporters that he didn’t give Özil any leeway when Arsenal don’t have possession. “He has to do his job like everybody else and usually he does it well … We are a team who win the ball high up the pitch very well, which means he and Alexis do their part of the job very well.”
As at following the Manchester City defeat, Özil had made 11 Premier League tackles this season to De Bruyne’s 17, but three more than Eden Hazard. Hazard, though, tops the chart for the most possession won in the final third, 18. Özil is second, along with Alexis (who had played one more match), on 16. Theo Walcott has won only half as many in the final third but made more tackles than both and over three times as many clearances as both added together (Özil 3, Alexis 0). Notwithstanding the rare blemish at Goodison, the stats reflect Walcott’s diligence and different role this season (similarly the Alexes, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Iwobi) to the two star central players - tracking back to support his full-backs. As for Özil’s offensive stats this season - which reflect the key attributes which led to his much-heralded signing - they are decent but not spectacular. He often provides goals (5 Premier League, 3rd Arsenal highest), assists (3, 3rd), chances created (45, 2nd), set pieces and passes (67 per 90 minutes, 2nd – interestingly, far behind Xhaka, 81.5), and like Silkolene engine oil, simply keeps Arsenal running. Neither his languid style nor his ball-winning prowess in the final third can disguise his lack of general impact in too many big matches (the same can be said of so many others, as we shall see).
Squad rotation
Once those two star signings were inked on the team sheet, Monsieur Wenger rotated at FC Basel to very good effect. Generally, however, in the Premier League and Europe, he has continued his old habit of picking settled teams and just made minor tinkerings. Last season - with ground to make up in both Leagues, clear weaknesses in the squad and many injuries - was no different. This season Arsenal made up for their August five-point Premier League deficit within a month, got off to a much better start in the Champions League, had fewer injuries and, above all, a much more fit-for-purpose squad. Yet, after the defeat at City, Monsieur Wenger said, “We have suffered a little bit physically in the last two games. We were twice 1-0 up and started the game well. I felt we have given a lot in Europe, in the Premier League. We were a bit less fresh mentally to absorb the pressure of two big away games having just come back from Europe.”
But the Everton match was seven days after Basel and only five players survived the Swiss rotation to start at home to Stoke (Koscielny, Gabriel, Xhaka, Özil and Alexis). The Tuesday and Sunday fixtures were just part and parcel of the competitive nature of the Premier League that has caused it to attract such globally-televised riches. Thereafter, the festive fixture list was as soft as Arsenal could hope for. Was it strictly necessary for Mesut Özil and Alexis to travel to Basel for a 10% chance? Hadn’t they been overplayed before that? Couldn’t Arsenal make a decent fist of a match without one or both? Couldn’t Gibbs have been trusted with another game or two more instead of the somewhat struggling Monreal? Bellerin had just had a break for his injury and the beneficiary Gabriel had only recently had his chances. Xhaka had hardly been overplayed all season. Coquelin had a break with his brief injury too. The Alexes had been oscillated. Walcott had missed a few matches through brief injuries. Giroud and Perez had assists and goals when given their fleeting chances. Beyond a modest amount of enforced injury-related changes, rotation has centred around just two areas - (until recently) indecision/experimentation over the ‘2’ once injury struck ‘Coqzorla’ again, and which Alex to play wide left. Managing a squad to keep players physically and mentally fresh – even more imperative given the demands on players in operating the high press, avoid injuries and keep the opposition guessing is just part of the modern Premier League manager’s job.
Game management
The Basel tie was effectively over in the 47th minute, yet Monsieur waited until the 70th and 73rd minutes to rest almost-ever-presents Alexis and Mesut Özil. Surely risking, and managing, their wrath would have been better than risking injury to such important players? At Everton, Arsenal failed to see out the first half after they had been in control and were physically dominated as the home crowd came to life and the press evaporated. The tide had turned but the first substitutions didn’t come until the two wide players who were having little or no impact on the match were finally replaced. At Manchester City, Arsenal were undone by Pep Guardiola’s changing their formation at half-time to exploit the space around Arsenal’s ‘2’; they scored immediately and Arsenal lost the central midfield.
As Tim Stillman noted, City pressed harder and Monsieur Wenger has struggled against managers that employ the high press he has finally come to use himself. With Mohamed Elneny available to help shore it up, Monsieur Wenger waited until the 65th minute before his standard swapping of the Alexes wide left and far away from where the problems were. Manchester City took the lead after 71 minutes and Elneny only came on to replace the quickly-injured Oxlade-Chamberlain after 78 minutes. With Arsenal also struggling to retain possession, the potential outlet of Olivier Giroud waited until after the second goal when, with Arsenal now needing to force the pace, Francis Coquelin was hooked. His attributes are much admired by Arsenal Audit, but there was surely a case for leaving him on the bench against Tony Pullis’s West Brom who were hardly likely to arrive with attacking intent and do anything other than park the bus? In the corresponding fixture at the end of last season, Coquelin started on the bench in favour of Aeron Ramsey after a frustrating home draw against Crystal Palace. Perhaps (regardless of the Welsh Euros star’s ongoing struggles for Arsenal) it would have been worth repeating? With the game still goalless, it did happen - after 75 minutes - once, as usual, the first ‘tactical’ change happened wide left.
Flat-track bullies?
Before the January 2015 win at the Etihad, Arsenal had not won against the then top four in 12 games - stretching back to the 5-3 win at Chelsea in October 2011. In the 2013/14 season Arsenal suffered 3-6, 1-5 and 0-6 defeats at Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea. Indeed, over the last four seasons, Arsenal have won just three of their last 22 Premier League away games against top-six opposition, seven games were drawn and 12 lost. In other figures, 16 points from 22 games at an average of 0.7 points per match (28 goals for, 47 against). This season, like last at home to Manchester United, Arsenal did win very comfortably, care of a speedy first half three-goal blitz against Chelsea. Yet even at home Arsenal’s record is far from great. Chelsea are the clear leaders in the Super 6 away table, having lost just four times and accrued 34 points at an average of 1.5 points per match. The Manchester clubs and Liverpool had very similar records 27/28 points from 22/23 matches at an average of 1.2 points and with eight or nine defeats. Only Tottenham Hotspur had a worse record than Arsenal, who, for the previous three seasons were again fourth, averaging 1.1 to 1.2 points per match. Before that, the average is 0.9 (having sold van Persie to Manchester United), 1.3, 1.3, 1.0, 1.4, 1.8, 1.8, 1.2 and 1.5. And then, previously, Monsieur Wenger’s glorious Invincibles who achieved a remarkable 2.4 PPG (won seven drew three).
Currently, Arsenal are fourth in this season’s Super 6 League table. The Arsenal season record so far, eleven shots on target against WBA, bettered their ten against West Ham and nine against Hull City. Yet in the three November and December matches against Tottenham Hotspur and the Manchester clubs, they managed just four shots on goal.
Prospects
Having acknowledged Arsenal’s more experienced and deeper squad and stronger spine, added pace and movement, the contre-presser, the success of moving Alexis to be a (false) no 9 and Olivier Giroud’s usefulness as Plan B from the bench, five significant barriers to success were highlighted last month - August start of the season, November, coping without Santi Cazorla, and Monsieur Wenger’s enduring passivity over both game-management and substitutions. Since Santi’s injury, Arsenal have improved a little on their record without him the previous two seasons. The 40% win-rate without him has upped to 50%, but is a long way short of the 65.5% with him. Similarly, the 1.6 points per match return without has upped a little to 1.8, but is still well short of 2.1 with. As we have seen, Monsieur Wenger’s enduring passivity over game-management, particularly against the newer breed of modern managers, was particularly exposed by Pep Guardiola at the Etihad. Late and tactically-mediocre substitutions continued. Whether struggling for the lead or losing, tactical substitutions usually involved little more than swapping of the Alexes wide left well after the hour mark and then bringing on the plan B super-sub Olivier Giroud for the last 20 minutes.
Arsenal’s impressive record in scoring late (and substitute) goals this season is well known. Less impressive is a further issue, as flagged up by the arsenal.com commentators - Arsenal’s record from half-time to the 70th minute. So far in the Premier League this season, quite extraordinarily it reads – after Monsieur Wenger’s half-time team talks - played 18, won 3, drawn 9, lost 6, goals-for 4, goals-against 9, points 18. Monsieur Wenger also rotated insufficiently to keep players physically and mentally fresh, an even bigger imperative given the demands on players in operating the high press. The physical outmuscling at Everton is further evidence of Monsieur Wenger’s enduring struggles against Ronald Koeman, who is becoming almost as big a nemesis as the Portuguese King Joffrey. Away up north, Monsieur Wenger has also struggled at teams that are overtly physical/managed by Allardyce and Pulis. Yet he has also struggled against the new breed of manager that employs the subtler tactics of the high press, not least Guardiola (Barcelona, Bayern Munich & Manchester City), Klopp (Borussia Dortmund & Liverpool) and Pochettino (Southampton & Tottenham). Worse still, Monsieur Wenger also has a terrible record against key Premier League rivals (only Pochettino has struggled more).
Since Arsenal’s biggest performance of the season, against Chelsea, Antonio Conte has reverted to his preferred three-at-the-back formation, won 13 Premier League matches on the trot (threatening Arsenal’s 2001-2 record 14), and enjoyed a nine-point lead over Arsenal, once they completed their New Year’s Day season half-way point. Unfortunately, still more barriers remain to be overcome in 2017. For Monsieur Wenger has also struggled to balance the competing demands of Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup fixtures coming in quick succession. And, in better seasons than last in terms of mounting a longer-enduring title challenge, Arsenal suffered three separate late season implosions (2008, 2010 & 2011). After completing a series of six ‘winnable’ league fixtures, Arsenal go to Conte’s rejuvenated Chelsea on 4 February. Eleven days later, Arsenal face Bayern Munich and, either side of a possible FA Cup tie and the international break, Southampton and Klopp’s Liverpool away, and then the Bayern second leg in quick succession. The first match of Spring, on April Fools’ Day, is the return tie against Guardiola’s Manchester City. A week after facing Pochettino’s Tottenham away, Mourinho’s United visit. The odds against Monsieur Wenger looking back over the season with anything but pain once Spring comes appear to be stacking ever more heavily against him.
Bonne Année from Arsenal Audit.
References
Alexis as a 9 before:
http://theshortfuse.sbnation.com/2016/8/10/12414326/alexis-sanchez-arsenal-striker-giroud-transfers
Özil industry:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2016/dec/21/mesut-ozil-arsenal-defence-alexis-sanchez-arsene-wenger
Struggling physically and mentally:
http://le-grove.co.uk/page/2/
