Frank Lee
For those optimistic about Arsenal’s chances of overhauling Chelsea who fancy a bet, at present Arsene Wenger’s team are generally third favourites for the title, behind Chelsea (who are predictably odds on) and Spurs. You can currently get between 8-1 and 9-1 from online bookies such as Bet365 Mobile on Per Mertesacker lifting the trophy in May.
The reason that Tottenham are slightly more fancied than the Gunners to win the title if Chelsea stumble, in spite of being a point behind their North London neighbours, reflects a more testing run-in for Arsenal and arguably a lack of faith, after so many botched attempts, at their ability to see through a title challenge past Easter more than once in recent seasons.
The away trips to Chelsea and Liverpool look ominous and fans won’t require long memories to remember that pair of trips in the spring of 2014, when the Gunners’ title challenge evaporated in their defeats at those two grounds. The February 5-1 defeat at Anfield was not actually terminal to their title chances, as deep into March, they began Arsene Wenger’s 1000th match in charge, at Stamford Bridge, with the chance of going a point behind first place Chelsea with a game in hand. What followed won’t make good viewing for Gooners anywhere.
The other thing that is worth bearing in mind is that Arsenal’s final points tallies in the years since they left Highbury have varied between 68 and 82, as the graphic above confirms. In that period, the amount achieved by the champions has ranged from 80 to 90 (Arsenal have only posted more than 79 points - in 2007/08). Only twice have the champions achieved less than 86 points in those ten years. Significantly, only on two occasions in the decade have the Gunners been less than ten points short of the champions.
So unless Arsenal are going to post a higher total than they have managed before, the odds are they won’t have enough to inherit the trophy from Leicester.
I’ve done a rough calculation on how many points are achievable if results go as I suspect they will, although I’ve been generous in predicting wins on all of the trips to West Brom, Palace, Boro and Stoke, and perhaps pessimistic in expecting them to get nothing from the games at Chelsea and Liverpool, and to fail to beat either of the Manchester clubs at home. And of course, I’ve not allowed for any dropping of points at home to the likes of Watford, Hull, Leicester, West Ham and Sunderland. Of course in the past, Arsenal have at times had some unexpected draws and defeats on their own turf in the spring against opposition that they would be expected to take care of comfortably, last season being a typical example. Critically though, they rarely achieve maximum points against their principle rivals.
This pattern has remained this season, with the games against Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham having garnered a total of five points from five games, in spite of three of those fixtures having been an home. And when the pressure is on, they rarely win against the top sides. Perhaps the form shown by the players who currently held in reserve against Southampton in the FA Cup may at least give the manager options he has not always enjoyed before to change this.
The bottom line is that on paper, there are a potential 95 points to aim for. You would get extremely long odds on them achieving that, but if Arsenal can maintain a fairly decent spell of good results, and beat the two Manchester clubs at home, then there is hope that they can finally buck the trend of finishing with between 68 and 83 points. I suspect they would still have to get a result at Chelsea to have any chance of achieving top spot, and you’d probably get a decent price on Antonio Conte’s side failing to win that game. Last time Arsenal managed that, Robin Van Persie and Andre Santos were amongst the scorers. It’s been a while…
