Neil A. Fry, Arsenal Audit
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Arsenal 1 – 2 Watford
Having ended Monsieur Wenger’s hopes of three successive FA Cup victories at The Emirates last March, Watford came into the match in poor form, having exited the cup competition at League One Millwall at the weekend, they had not won in their previous seven Premier League matches or in eight successive away matches in all competitions. After Arsenal’s much-rotated team exemplified the offensive positives of this season, Monsieur Wenger preferred the usual names that had struggled at home to overcome Burnley. The twin Arsenal evils of the gun turned again against them with a high-press and (lawful) physicality resulted in the worst first half they managed all season and, after Bournemouth and Preston, that is saying something. The live Arsenal.com commentators, Mike Sewell and Adrian Clarke, summed it up as well as anyone - “quiet, casual, slow, sloppy, no intensity, sleep-walking, dawdling, physically over-powered”. Watford “all over them like a rash, hounded Arsenal off the park”. Gabriel, Mustafi and a woefully ill-matched ‘2’, Coquelin and Ramsey, were particularly culpable defensively. Despite Alex Iwobi’s goal and second-half efforts, the damage had been done as Arsenal, coming out for the second half again strongly, were denied by a penalty not awarded, the woodwork, the goalkeeper and poor finishing.
Arsenal’s offensive improvement & Olivier Giroud
The Watford team selection hardly did the much-maligned Oliver Giroud any favours; with Gabriel bodged to right-back again and Aaron Ramsey in midfield (until yet another injury), Arsenal were woefully bereft of pace and movement and mustered no shots on target in the first half. (It is worth recalling that last season, in dealing up some very pedestrian offensive fare, Olivier Giroud was supplemented on a number of occasions by Aaron Ramsey on the right wing too). A desperate Monsieur Wenger, forced to watch again from the stands, caused an even bigger shock than Watford - off went Giroud at half-time and Alexis reverted to his false-9 position. Arsenal were transformed. Lucas Perez added further pace as the second tactical and final substitute after 57 minutes.
Despite what must have been a very disappointing season for him personally, Olivier Giroud has - in marked contrast to his international compatriot Debuchy - thrived upon his role of impact player and bailed out Arsenal repeatedly, been a great team player, accepted his situation with good grace and signed a new contract. Whilst weakening Arsenal’s contre-presser, Giroud has also tried admirably to do his bit. As previous Arsenal Audits have argued, he may have been made better use of in tough away matches as a better outlet to hold the ball up or to rotate and rest Alexis, perhaps in easier (on paper) home games, when the opposition are likely to park the bus. The one big positive this season has been the offensive improvement due in part to the added pace and forward movement aided by Arsenal’s higher pressing tactic and the success of moving Alexis to be a (false) no. 9.
Arsenal’s greater offensive threat this season, is also borne out by the stats. Arsenal’s late penalty against Burnley was the fifth they have been awarded this Premier League season, compared to just two last season, the lowest in the league apart from relegated Norwich. It also brought up a half-century of goals for Arsenal in 22 games this season – at an average of 2.27 goals per game, compared to their 1.71 goals mean last season. Alexis Sanchez, 17 goals, 12 assists (incl. Watford); Theo Walcott 14, 2; Olivier Giroud 10, 3; Mesut Ozil 9, 7; Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 6, 6; Lucas Perez 6, 6; Alex Iwobi 5 (incl. Watford), 3; Danny Welbeck 2, 1 (1 start) have all played their part.
British core
The usual feature on the struggles of the British core to have the impact Monsieur Wenger had hoped for was held over last December. With a fuller squad than usual, Arsenal concentrated on contract renewals in January – unfortunately none such was forthcoming, so far, in negotiations with Alexis and Mesut Özil (or their agents). Once announced as the loyal future of the Club, Gibbs, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Wilshere contracts expire at the end of July and seem in limbo – much like, publicly at least, their manager.
Injuries appear to dog the British core evermore. Usually the biggest casualty, Jack Wilshere has had an injury-free half season or so convalescing on the south coast. He is playing regularly, albeit his stats are far from spectacular - 20 Premier League starts out of 23, no goals, hit the woodwork five times, one assist, three big chances created, two big chances missed, 21 shots, seven on target, 15 tackles, nine interceptions, sven clearances, 104 recoveries, no errors leading to goal, no red cards and four yellow.
Aaron Ramsey’s solitary tally of the goal at Championship Preston in the FA Cup is a far cry from the midfielder’s Player of the Year 2013-,14 season. Then again he missed a lot of matches through injury (three months and 20 games). Yet, the winning FA Cup final goal was just one of 16 goals from 34 appearances (ten in the Premier League from 23 starts and three sub appearances) and he also added nine assists. Arsenal won all 13 matches Ramsey scored in, and six of his strikes broke the deadlock. December 2016 rather summed up his current season - one start and an average performance in a heavily-rotated cup match (FC Basel), two substitute appearances, three matches missed through yet another injury. Honest endeavour used to be his greatest asset. In January, the woeful failure to track back that led to Bournemouth’s opening goal and again in the defeat at Watford, book-ended a month in which, because of the absence of others, he started four successive Premier League matches before another soft-tissue injury. Having found himself unsuited to being bodged wide with the pacier Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Iwobi and Lucas faring better, behind the more disciplined Coquelin, Cazorla and Xhaka as one of the ‘2’, and behind first Mesut Özil and then 20-year-old Alex Iwobi in the 10 position he covets, the Euros seem a long way away. There, in 448 minutes, he made five appearances, scored one goal, made four assists and was very much the star of the show for Wales, even eclipsing Gareth Bale. In the Premier League this season, Ramsey has accumulated just 552 minutes playing time from six starts and six sub appearances with just one assist to show for it (he has also made 11 tackles and five clearances).
Theo Walcott spent most of December and January injured himself. A ‘very small calf problem’ after the Manchester City defeat turned into a six-match absence. His season so far has improved on most past seasons but his stats are interesting compared to the less-preferred Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. He missed just the one match (WBA) through injury in December, but had a somewhat typical couple of months. Three starts at the beginning gave him a run of four Premier League starts, but he was substituted in all of them, before returning to the bench for four matches. Having starred in the Southampton win, forced into central midfield, he was returned to the bench against Watford. Walcott, whilst benefitting from twice as many starts (16) and 1,392 minutes to 11-times substitute Oxlade Chamberlain’s 880 minutes, has very much the best return of goals – eight to two (and 14 to six in all matches). Apart from Walcott’s one block, Oxlade-Chamberlain, bearing in mind his lack of comparative minutes, has much the better key stats - four assists to two (six to two in all matches), 21 chances created to 11, 18 tackles to 23, and eight clearances to ten.
Kieran Gibbs hasn’t perhaps had the chances he deserved, given that Nacho Monreal has struggled on occasions, but his own struggles with injuries haven’t helped him. After a rare Premier League start against West Bromwich Albion, he was again injured and returned to the bench against Burnley and remained there, domestic Cup duties - as ever - excepted. It left him with just two starts and 205 Premier League minutes.
Rotation
After the successful rotation at Basel on 6 December (albeit the two star-signings still travelled, played, and were substituted late), Arsenal had two difficult away matches 13 & 18 December (lost) and two very winnable homes fixtures, 10 & 26 December (won). In the January New Year’s Day match, six days on, Arsenal faced a home match against the team with the worst 2016 record in the Premier and Football Leagues before, two days later, facing another fixture, Bournemouth away – but still very winnable. Yet unenforced changes were minimal. As we saw in Part One, Monsieur Wenger rotated just one player at home to Crystal Palace - Francis Coquelin for Mohamed Elneny and, with the latter departed for Africa, Coquelin duly returned at Bournemouth (but went off with a hamstring injury within half an hour). After the draw, Monsieur Wenger bemoaned the fixture list, “That’s the problem when you have only 48 hours, you have to play some players who come out of a game like Crystal Palace [with knocks]. We had three or four players who we had to wait for the warm-up to see if they could play.” Bellerin, Koscielny, Gabriel and Oxlade-Chamberlain all had issues. Koscielny was taken off after 64 minutes. Rotation for the festive period 13 December to 3 January waited till the FA Cup tie 7 January – when Hector Bellerin joined Francis Coquelin, and others, on the short-term injury list. In failing to rotate sufficiently, Monsieur Wenger caused players to pick up avoidable strains and injuries and chances to keep opponents guessing also missed. Mesut Özil’s illness at least afforded the languid German the winter break he was used to at home. The lack of rotation seems partly borne out by an innate conservatism, over-loyalty to a hard-core of players regardless of performance, and not trusting emerging alternatives – notwithstanding his promotion of and faith in Alex Iwobi. The performance of Ainsley Maitland-Niles suggested he might be the next. New signing Lucas Perez has shone brightly but been chronically under-used. Despite Nacho Monreal’s struggles, Kieran Gibbs has been too.
Game management & tactical approaches
Harry Redknapp berated Arsenal in his columns for the London Evening Standard. Firstly, the players - Premier League winners don’t celebrate drawing at Bournemouth. Then, after his sending-off, the time Monsieur Wenger often spends berating the fourth officials when his energy would be better expended on game-management. Whilst Wenger could rightly retort ‘show us your Premier League Winners’ medals’ to Redknapp, hardly a tactical genius himself, his points were still very valid.
The next day after the late draw at Bournemouth the Club’s twelfth rival, Mauricio Pochettino, who Monsieur Wenger has not beaten in the Premier League, deployed Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-4-3 formation he had employed out of the blue against Arsenal, for the second successive Premier League match and turned the tables on Chelsea, who had had a 13-match winning run in which to perfect a formation which had very seldom prospered in the Premier League.
Game-management, tactics and substitutions were not an issue at Swansea, in what was a very good result. However, the Old Trafford battle of Mourinho and Jurgen Klopp shed an interesting light on the modern elite managerial game. Klopp operated a ferocious high press with team-mates hunting in packs and their lack of a centre-forward drew Mourinho’s defensive players out of position and Liverpool were good value for their half-time lead. The Portuguese King Joffrey subbed the stalwart Carrick and brought on his substitute, the club captain Rooney, and changed shape and went longer to bypass the press. The third and final throw of the dice came in the 76th minute - around the time Monsieur Wenger often makes his first substitution - and Fellaini was also thrown into the mixer. By the end, Klopp was hanging on for the draw against Mourinho’s pragmatic ‘anti-football aesthetic’.
Prior to Arsenal’s very late win against Burnley, Pochettino pitted his wits against Pep Guardiola’s at Manchester City in a match based around pressing and high defensive lines. Guardiola has often played a 4-2-3-1 in recent weeks but on Saturday used an extremely attack-minded 4-3-3. He was to be denied a win by a missed penalty decision, poor finishing and his new rival’s similar commitment to game-management. Tottenham started with a three-man defence, Pochettino’s preferred shape in recent weeks. But with the back three exposed against the runs of Sane and Sterling, he switched to a 4-2-3-1 after 25 minutes which stabilised his team. Nevertheless, the lack of guile in midfield and poor first-half performance by Wimmer led to his substitution and now the XI that would have started had the manager elected a four-man defence were on the pitch. Tottenham overcame a two-goal deficit and loss of their most crucial defender (which forced the previous midfield partnership to become the central-defence back partnership) when the half-time substitute equalised.
Such approaches are very much more advanced than Monsieur Wenger’s bringing on Olivier Giroud after 65 to 75 minutes or swapping the Alexes (Oxlade-Chamberlain and Iwobi) within his perpetual 4-2-3-1 system.
Prospects
Arsenal’s poor record from half-time to the 70th minute, after Monsieur Wenger’s half-time team talks, was much better this month with just the Bournemouth third goal conceded. Instead, there was a return to last season - shockingly complacent and abject first halves as against Bournemouth, Preston and Watford. The half-time substitution of Oliver Giroud in the latter represented a very rare, but very welcome bucking of the long history of late and tactically-mediocre substitutions. Rotation problems were exemplified in the defeat by Watford, as those that excelled at Southampton were cast aside for the trusted figures who had lumbered to the late home win against woeful away Burnley. Watford served to confirm Arsenal’s struggles against overtly physical teams and those that turn the gun and employ the high press.
After the poor successive defeats in the North West to (relatively) struggling Everton and Manchester City before Christmas, Arsenal’s Premier League title effort centred around six winnable fixtures before the potentially season-defining game at Chelsea. The first three points were duly collected. Despite the late goal heroics, this month, five were dropped to Bournemouth and struggling Watford. Chelsea dropped the same from very much more difficult fixtures at Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool and retained their nine-point lead over Arsenal. In the first February match Monsieur Wenger’s terrible record against key Premier League rivals continued and Chelsea’s points difference was extended to 12, following another abject performance at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal’s title challenge was all but mathematically over again. And - just like last season - it was over even quicker than in the stadium-payment resource-stretched 2008, 2010 & 2011 implosions later in the title-race. Given the remaining fixture list, even Monsieur Wenger’s perpetual consolation prizes of his imaginary top-four ‘trophy’ and St. Totteringham’s day look increasingly at risk as Arsenal supporters hoping for his contract to be renewed seem to become ever scarcer.
Sources
Offensive stats:
http://news.arseblog.com/2017/01/arsenal-2-1-burnley-a-rolling-stone-gathers-no-moss-by-the-numbers/
