Neil A. Fry, Arsenal Audit
Keeping with the faith
Ahead of the Bayern match one of Monsieur Wenger’s chief public disciples, Martin Keown, remained ever loyal to his former manager. He felt his reign would carry on for at least another season which “would give the great man the time he deserves." And “if he was to win the Champions League or the league”, longer. With a seventh successive R16 exit beckoning, only one final in 20 years and no sustained Premier League challenge since The Invincibles and three major implosions those ideas seem ever more fanciful. Nevertheless, Keown’s devotion was unsullied. "The problem you have is Arsene Wenger is a very special individual. You're inspired when you're in his company," he enthused. Unfortunately, once again the players seemed far from inspired and in Munich Arsenal lost their 5th game by a 4+ goal margin since the start of 2014, one more than in the previous 11 years. Even Keown struggled to keep the faith in the television studio aftermath. “It was embarrassing … This is his lowest point. He looked particularly wounded. I feel for him; he almost needs to be protected from himself. This is 20 years of work here. He's been magnificent for the club. This brings forward the change that looks likely at the end of the season. I think it will be him that makes the decision. The realisation that the decision needs to be made is more apparent tonight." Keown, however, recanted within days. "I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that if they qualify for the Champions League and do alright in the FA Cup (with only a home tie against non-League Lincoln standing in the way of a Wembley semi-final), it’ll be status quo for next season. Why wouldn’t it be?" For Keown warned "We've seen Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola arrive at Liverpool and City and they've not been successful either in terms of winning trophies.” He devoutly omitted Antonio Conte’s remarkable transformation of Chelsea, with the same players. Keown concluded "If he was to go at the end of the season I'm not sure the club would be ready. Which manager they would turn to?”
A new Arsenal manager?
It is claimed that Arsenal are ready and have drawn a four-man shortlist as a contingency plan should Monsieur Wenger decide to go. Thomas Tuchel, Jurgen Klopp’s successor at Borussia Dortmund, is said to top the list and the other three candidates are Massimiliano Allegri, Roger Schmidt and Leonardo Jardim. In a part 2 Special, Arsenal Audit examines their respective merits and those of a name remarkably absent from the shortlist, Arsenal supporters’ favourite, Diego Simeone. Finally, Arsenal argues who they should turn to and considers whether or not it is likely to happen.
Thomas Tuchel (43), Borussia Dortmund
Having replaced Jurgen Klopp in 2015, Borussia Dortmund’s Tuchel is another German exponent of the Gegenpress. He had impressed at Mainz (2009 - 15), guiding them to their best-ever Bundesliga 5th finish and taking them into Europe. In marked contrast to Monsieur Wenger’s starts of the season (post-Austrian training camps) and Bayern Munich first-leg struggles Tuchel, in the 2010-11 season, coached Mainz to seven wins in their first seven games which included a 1 – 2 away victory at the Allianz Arena. Tuchel speaks perfect English, however, lacks the animated charisma of his predecessor and is more of technocratic manager. In last season’s Europa League Anfield second leg, they twice lead his predecessor’s team by two goals with Liverpool needing three. Three late substitutions at 77, 82 and 83 minutes failed to stem the red tide and Liverpool scored two more goals to progress to the semis. This season, after two 2-2 draws with Real Madrid they topped Group F. They trail Benfica 1-0 before the home R16 second leg. As Dortmund have sold so many of their top players in the last five years, he is also trying to revive the club with young players. Currently, they are 3rd in the Bundesliga, eight points behind RB Leipzig and 13 behind Bayern. With Monsieur Wenger’s ongoing struggles with his once young British core and the likely loss of his two star players, and no tangible League success to speak of, the technocrat’s appeal to the Arsenal Board is obvious.
Roger Schmidt (49), Bayer Leverkusen
A German exponent of the Gegenpress too, Schmidt has left Tuchel trailing in his wake this season. He turned the gun on Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham at Wembley in November and Bayer Leverkusen beat Tottenham Hotspur 0 – 1 with their aggression, energy and speed (none of which have been particularly notable from Arsenal who have struggled against their local rival’s demanding young manager). Leverkusen finished second in their group, unbeaten yet with just two wins, banishing Tottenham to Europa League exile. The R16 home leg ended in a 2 – 4 defeat as Diego Simeone’s Atlético de Madrid took control of the tie. Previously, he topped Monsieur Wenger’s antics at home to Burnley and was sent off after disputing a free kick and initially refused to leave, causing the referee to suspend the game and lead the players off the field for eight minutes. Currently, his club are 8th, 23 points off the top. Indeed, Schmidt’s only honours have been the Austrian league and cup double in 2013 - 2014 for the multiple sporting franchise Red Bull owned Salzburg. Again, other candidates have far superior credentials, but Schmidt would be natural fit for the Arsenal owner. Even more scarily, Kroenke’s top preference is said to be the new Belgium national team’s management partnership of Arsenal playing legend Thierry Henry and Roberto Martinez.
Leonardo Jardim (42), Monaco
The Portuguese started his career as head coach at 29 with a local Madeira 3rd division side and enjoyed a five year stint there. A series of short-lived but successful posts followed. Two promotions in successive full seasons at other clubs took him to the Primeira Liga. Next, in his one and only season he led S.C. Braga to third position, posting a record of 15 consecutive league wins in the process. He soon left after a run-in with the president and joined regular Arsenal Champions League foes Olympiacos F.C. and triumphed over Monsieur Wenger in December 2012 (2-1). Then, even though his team soon led the league by ten points, he was again relieved of his duties. Success continued in his next season, back in Portugal at Sporting Lisbon, where - leading a young team largely developed in their youth system - he coached them to second position in his debut campaign, 25 points higher than in the previous season. Next up was AS Monaco, who he led to the third place in Ligue 1 in his first year (repeating the feat last season), and again triumphed over Monsieur Wenger – with the 3 – 1 win at The Emirates leading to Arsenal’s latest R16 exit. A 1-0 aggregate exit to finalists Juventus followed. Last season Valencia eliminated them in the play-off round. This season they won their group, having beaten Tottenham Hotspur twice. The first R16 Champions League leg last week at Manchester City, saw them go 3-2 up after the hour before conceding three in 11 minutes to lose 5-3, albeit the away goals mean the tie is far from over.
Diego Simeone (46), Atletico Madrid
Simeone is the apparent supporters’ choice since a succession of elite managers were attracted by key rivals as Arsenal persevered with Monsieur Wenger. The 100+ capped Argentina player had a relatively mixed apprenticeship as a manager in his homeland from 2006 – 2010 where he managed Racing (twice), San Lorenzo and won the Argentinian championship with Estudiantes de La Plata and, two years later, River Plate. In 2006 Estudiantes defeated all the "big five" Argentinian clubs and finished the regular season tied for first place with Boca Juniors. In a winner-take-all final match Estudiantes came from behind to secure their first division title in 23 years. He had half a season in the Italian Serie A helping Catania avoid relegation followed by his brief second stint at Racing before Atlético de Madrid came calling. Simeone worked miracles in overcoming the financial might of Barcelona and Real Madrid to win La Liga in 2013-14 and has continued to thrive. In the same season Atlético were the only undefeated team in the Champions League before the final. They beat Barcelona 2–1 on aggregate in the quarter-final having benefited from Simeone's tactic of cutting the swift-passing midfield of Barcelona in two, thus denying them space and isolating Xavi and Andrés Iniesta from forwards Lionel Messi and Neymar. In the semi-finals, Atlético beat José Mourinho's Chelsea 3–1 at Stamford Bridge, following a goalless draw at home, to reach the Champions League Final for only the second time in the club's history. In repeating the feat in 2016 Simeone bettered Monsieur Wenger’s poor 20-year record of just one Champions League Final in less than five years at the club. The defeats to Real lead him to consider resigning, which also suggests a level of considerably more advanced self-analysis too. This season, Atlético are 4th in La Liga, seven points beyond an inspired Sevilla and with the usual giants in the top two places, but another place in the Champions League quarter finals beckons.
Massimiliano Allegri (49), Juventus
The Italian Max Allegri started his managerial career in 2004, with Serie C2 Aglianese where he finished his playing career. After an impressive season there, he fared less well with Serie C1 Grosset, then his managerial career took off with when he won a historical first promotion to Serie B for Sassuolo in 2008. That took him to Cagliari in Serie A and ninth place was their best result in Serie A in almost fifteen years. And given the limited resources available, lack of top-class players, and the high quality of Cagliari's attacking football, he won the managers' manager Panchina d'Oro (Golden bench) award ahead of Serie A winning coach José Mourinho. Despite the loss of his regular striker the following season, he consolidated the club’s position the following season but was sacked. Allegri joined Serie A giants Milan in June 2010 and immediately led them to their first championship title since 2004, beating title incumbents and cross-city rivals Internazionale in both league fixtures. Beating them again, to win the Supercoppa Italiana was all he had to show for his second season, finishing second to Juventus who had much benefited from his sale to them of the unwanted veteran Andrea Pirlo. He did make it beyond R16 of the Champions League, but they were eliminated by Barcelona. With the departure and retirement of several of the club's key players, Milan struggled initially at the beginning of the next season. Having managed to get the best out of some younger players, not least Mario Balotelli, Allegri managed to steer them from 16th place to a 3rd-place finish. With Juventus beckoning, he was sacked the following January. In July 2014, Allegri replaced Antonio Conte the day after he resigned, albeit to general ambivalence. Nevertheless, in his first season, he continued the Italian giants’ success and they won their fourth consecutive Serie A title. He went one better than Conte and guided Juventus to a domestic double by helping the club break their twenty-year drought by winning the Coppa Italia. Having defeating defending champions Real Madrid in the semi-finals, Allegri also guided Juventus to the Champions League final – only to be defeated by Barcelona. The following season Allegri struggled after the departure of key players such as Pirlo, Vidal, and Tevez and were 11 points behind the leaders after the first ten league matches. Yet Juventus went on an unbeaten streak and won 24 of their next 25 league games to come back from 12th place to repeat Allegri’s double feat. Allegri seems likely to win a hat-trick of titles with the club 10 points clear and, bizarrely, in 26 games he hasn’t presided over a single draw.
Allegri built upon Conte's success primarily by relaxing the reigns and using a wide variety of different whips. During his first season, he initially persevered with his predecessor’s trademark 3–5–2 formation, but experimented with others, including his favoured Milan 4–3–1–2, 4–4–2, and the 4–3–3 formations, to find the best system for his players, particularly preferring 4 at the back in the Champions League. Indeed such was Juventus's fluidity under Allegri, they were said to defend low with a 5–4–1, press with a 4–4–2 and attack with a 4–2–3–1. He still managed to preserve club and country’s trademark defensive organisation and solidity and often switched to 3–5–2 in the final 20 minutes of closely contested matches, to hold on to the result. And, again revisiting his Milan days, used two deep, tight defensive lines when facing teams that dominated possession to break up play and counter-attack. The other upshot of Allegri’s tactical chess games was that talented players were awarded more freedom and creative licence and midfielders were enabled to make attacking runs into the area. Juventus became slightly less aggressive and intense in their pressing off the ball, while their playing style became more patient and focussed on keeping possession and gaining territorial advantage, to conserve energy, and a slower short passing build-up.
Prospects
We simply don’t know if any of these, or other candidates, or Monsieur Wenger, will be the manager of Arsenal next season. As our intrepid Editor has noted, even the Club cannot seem to agree on a coherent message. The players are said not to know and maybe even Monsieur Wenger doesn’t know himself. Certainly, the longer the saga lives on, the more difficult it will be to build the first team level footballing operational structures the modern game requires to fill the vacuum off the pitch the Board have allowed their Messiah to create. Arsenal Audit has been questioning the senior management and Board leadership at Arsenal since 2011 and is far from convinced they have the necessary competences and ambition to ensure Arsenal have the best candidate in place next season and resist any Kroenke family follies. It seems more likely that the decision will be made by Monsieur Wenger himself. If his (very well remunerated) devotion to the Club was that great, he would resign in keeping with his self-ordained (March / April) timescale. Barring a miracle, that should be on 8 March: The day after yet another Arsenal Champions League Round 16 exit is confirmed. Supporters could then unite behind him in trying to attain one of the three realistically available Champions League places and a St. Totteringham’s Day and he could bow out with the dignity his long-service (as opposed to record over the last decade) deserves.
Thereafter, no manager comes with guarantees. Thomas Tuchel and Roger Schmidt are the sort of young hungry modern managers Arsenal need to turn to. But, neither, at present, quite have the credentials deserving of the honour. Leonardo Jardim is the youngest candidate and makes a better claim. Nevertheless, there should be only two managers on any shortlist: the two outstanding genuinely elite level candidates. The apparent absence of Diego Simeone from the Club’s alleged shortlist would suggest a familiar absence of the promised ambition. Rumours suggest the Argentinian’s preferred next destination would be Inter Milan, his main club at the peak of his playing career. But surely Arsenal could tempt him to battle his wits against the Premier League’s elite? Arsenal are said to be wary of his, alleged, combustible character. Yet, his players have reacted well to him and he has even maintained a cordial relationship with Diego Costa, no mean feat! Surely, Simeone has all the attributes to take the Arsenal players out of their under-achieving comfort zone and take the Club forward? Arsenal Audit believes Max Allegri, the bookmakers favourite should Monsieur Wenger leave, would certainly relish the prospect of taking on the Premier League’s elite managers, not least Antonio Conte, his predecessor at Juventus. With Juventus so dominant and, like Pep Guardiola, having expressed a preference to retire early, the time would surely be right for him to face a new challenge. Not least, one of restoring Arsenal’s ever more distant glories in what has since become the world’s best and most competitive league. Whilst accepting that Atlético represents a harder managerial challenge than Juventus, Arsenal Audit believes that due to his more significant and more varied top-level European success and his great tactical acumen Massimiliano Allegri should be Arsenal’s manger next season.
Sources
Unsullied devotee:
http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/martin-keown-expects-arsene-wenger-to-be-given-oneyear-contract-to-allow-arsenal-time-to-find-a-new-a3466006.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/02/16/arsenal-humiliated-bayern-munich-arsene-wenger-future-live/
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/martin-keown-thinks-arsene-wenger-9903933
Contingency plan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38994846
http://www.espnfc.us/uefa-champions-league/2/blog/post/2831403/credit-pep-guardiola-max-allegri-bayern-munich-and-juventus
Bookmakers:
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/arsenal/next-permanent-manager
