Ian Tanner
Twelve months ago, in A Fox in the Box, I noted the importance of penalties awarded (13) to Leicester City’s remarkable triumph. By contrast, we Gooners were awarded just two, neither of which were at THOF. My argument – then and still – goes as follows: the more attacking a team, the more goals should be scored from what we could refer to as “open-play”. Stands to reason, dunnit? Goals from open-play I term “non-penalty goals”, a true reflection of a team’s potency or impotency in and around the opposition’s box, if you’ll excuse the double entendre. And the more non-penalty goals, the more penalties one can expect to be awarded, or so goes my theory.
Dividing the number of non-penalty goals by the number of penalties awarded gives a ratio which indicates how many non-penalty goals a team must score in order to be awarded a penalty, whether scored or not and, for that matter, whether justified or not. Last season, Leicester City also topped “my” table, needing to score a mere 4.5 non-penalty goals to be awarded a penalty. Arsenal’s ratio was 32 as we scored 65 goals, including one of the two penalties awarded: (65 – 1) / 2 = 32. QED. Officialdom was only less parsimonious to relegated Norwich City than to Arsenal. Referees obviously didn’t feel intimidated into giving us spot-kicks, deserved or otherwise.
This season, the winner of the fewest number of non-penalty goals scored per penalty awarded is AFC Bournemouth. For your delectation, the full list, with all numbers shown to 1 decimal place is illustrated… on the left side of the two tables.
Dean Court (as I still call it) was the first ground to which my dad took me when Ted MacDougall was in his heyday, so to see a cherry on the top is the icing on the cake. At the other end, The Baggies bagged just one penalty. Incidentally, the PL’s bottom 6 clubs – by which I mean from 15th placed Swansea, Burnley and Watford to relegated Hull, Boro and Sunderland – scored all 22 penalties they were awarded.
Whereas last season we didn’t get a home Premier League penalty, this season we only had to wait 28 minutes. Theo missed! Incidentally, talking of ex-Saints, in that opening-day home defeat to Liverpool, there were five of them on the scoresheet. Dear Norris, is this a record?
Now you may well be thinking: “But what about goals that are scored from penalty rebounds, not directly from the spot? Have you accounted for such and, if so, how?” My answer: “No, and get a life! If there’s one thing I cannot stand, it’s a pedant.” Chickens and eggs spring to mind.
But there’s more. This season, I’ve applied my logic to defence as well as attack, a corollary to the above. If a team concedes a lot of penalties, it surely follows that they concede a commensurate number of non-penalty goals. You should know already that Everton’s penalty was the tenth awarded against us this season, putting us second behind relegated Hull City, who were surely unlucky to concede 13. All ten were converted, by the way, and three (all dodgy, IMHO) were conceded in successive home games against the Spuds, Bournemouth and Stoke. So our “Goals Against” column, at 44, translated to 34 non-penalty goals. Dividing this into the ten penalties conceded gives a ratio of 3.4. It should come as no surprise, therefore, that we have the dubious honour of topping my second table (and by some margin) – on the right hand side of the two tables above.
Looking back, it’s easy to forget that the three-month period from 22nd October saw us concede just four goals in seven home Premier League matches, all of them penalties. Dear Norris, is this a record?
