Neil A. Fry, Arsenal Audit
“Those values that he has, those qualities, are world class in every respect. His DNA is the same DNA as the club’s. He is driven to move forward, he is driven to evolve and he is driven to achieve those objectives of winning for this club and making those fans proud. When you look at the world of football, and you think about the great candidates that there are - and there are many great coaching candidates in the world and Arsenal is a club that all of them would want to work for because of the things we represent in football - but when you look around and make that assessment, you don’t find any better candidates than Arsène Wenger.”
Ivan Gazidis, Chief Executive on the contract renewal
In part 2 we saw that since he dissembled the Invincibles Monsieur Wenger’s coaching staff has been largely unchanged and recruitment failings, particularly relative to key rivals, have persisted too. In part 1 we saw that the little known young trio of Song, Diaby and Denilson personified Monsieur Wenger’s Project Youth which he believed would keep Arsenal competing at the highest level. Arsenal’s finished in 4th place in their breakthrough 2008 - 2009 season, 18 points behind the Champions. Following the near abandonment of the British core, Monsieur Wenger’s self-proclaimed ‘team of men’ became his third distinct post-Invincibles team. Players such as Cech, Mustafi, Özil and Alexis represented huge upgrades on the likes of Almunia, Gallas, Denilson and Eduardo from the Project Youth era. Yet last season Arsenal still finished 18 points behind the Champions, one place lower than their less illustrious predecessors and out of the Champions League. In part 3 we first look at what Monsieur Wenger calls the ‘technical’ side of the game which he insists on being in total control of - including tactics, substitutions and rotation - and contrast his approach with elite level key rival managers and the sort of top managerial candidates Arsenal Audit believe should have replaced him. Then we consider the very hefty weight of history compounding Monsieur Wenger’s claim, after the FA Cup Final, that they “will win the championship with one or two good buys.” Finally, Arsenal Audit will sign off with its prediction for the season.
The technical side
Tactical approaches
At the start of the season a welcome change in tactics came with the sacrosanct 4-2-3-1 supplemented by an in vogue high press led by Alexis, now a false 9, and a faster attacking game with Olivier Giroud relegated to being a (very effective) substitute plan B. Francis Coquelin exemplified the press by operating far higher up the pitch and with Mustafi alongside Koscielny, the centre backs attacked the ball much quicker. Monsieur Wenger was rewarded by his patient perseverance with Alexis who had taken time to adapt to his new role. Walcott and Özil became key beneficiaries, invading his vacant space to good effect. All three scored in the home win against Chelsea which exemplified the new approach and was complimented by Mustafi’s expert shackling of a frustrated Costa. Yet, the quick succession pre-Xmas defeats at Everton and Manchester City were just around the corner and Alexis was suddenly, inexplicably, returned to the left with Giroud resumed his traditional starting role. Arsenal reverted to type, the season imploded even more spectacularly than ever before. Then, in extremis on 17 April, a now fashionable three at the back was deployed for the first time since Monsieur Wenger picked up the baton from George Graham.
It is to be hoped three at the back isn’t unfathomably discarded too as, clearly, the new 3-4-2-1 / 3-4-3 formation lifted Arsenal from their abject season. The players may have felt more comfortable with the new approach and enjoyed new tactical drills and challenges. The system seems to complement the existing players in that the full-backs’ predilection for getting forward is mitigated by them playing as wing-backs and with two ball playing centre-backs either side of a sweeper left behind. And bar the supine defeat at Tottenham, the results appeared to be testimony to the success of the new approach, not least in the FA Cup win against the Champions. However, as 7amkickoff identified, the success was not down to a defensive improvement in the reduction in the number of shots, big chances, prime shots and expected goals allowed. Rather, an improvement, an unsustainable improvement, in Petr Cech’s saves. The system remains reliant on the ‘2’ inside the wing-backs and the problem, without a genuine defensive midfield player, of Arsenal being over-run through the middle is no closer to being solved. In addition, David Ospina’s reluctance to command his box and poor distribution skills are ill-suited to the system.
Substitutions
The early season high press, faster offensive game and relegation of Olivier Giroud to the bench was welcome and the much-maligned Frenchman rescued Arsenal many times with his late goals. His inevitable introduction apart, the late, predictable and tactically lacking substitutions showed few signs of abating. In extremis, Sanchez having been dropped for disciplinary reasons replaced an again struggling Coquelin at half-time after an abject Arsenal first half at Anfield. Nevertheless, barring injuries, 65 - 70+ minute substitutions remained the norm and seldom involved little more than swapping the Alexes (Oxlade-Chamberlain and Iwobi) and players in the same position. Having switched to a three, there was a long overdue genuine tactical change in the latter part of the season as Monsieur Wenger sometimes switched back to a four to vary the offensive effort (it was statistically better with three at the back). This was repeated in the season opener when Giroud and Ramsey came on after 67 minutes and with the centre forward replacing the struggling centre back Rob Holding, Arsenal reverted to a (bizarre) back four of Oxlade-Chamberlain (RB), Bellerin (LB), Montreal and Kolasinic (CBs). The subs’ late goals helped rescue Arsenal as shots rained in on the Leicester goal and they reversed the scoreline of last season’s opener. Albeit, the game was considerably more farcical and with so many players out of their natural position and appearing in random places around the pitch, it was hard to tell what was going on.
Rotation
Squad rotation was, largely, restricted to putting out a sensible mix of regular starters and squad or returning players in the FA Cup and a reserve / under 23 team in the League Cup. Rotation in the Premier League and Champions League, sadly, remained largely an anathema to Monsieur Wenger. Consequently, opportunities to reduce the strain on players, keep the opposition guessing, and reward squad players for patience and performance were sadly missed. The regrettable favouring of Walcott over Perez, and Joel Campbell the previous season, no matter how they performed does not auger well for the new season. Neither did the lack of game time given to Rob Holding after a promising start to his career. At the other end of the spectrum, Mertesacker’s outstanding performance in the FA Cup Final made a mockery of his exclusion since his return from injury to the bench in February. Sensibly, Monsieur Wenger has stated that he will treat the match intensive, geographically challenging Thursday Europa League in similar vein to the domestic Cup competitions and concentrate on the Premier League. Nevertheless, Arsenal could still field a competitive Europa League team along the lines of: Ospina; Holding, Mertesacker, Chambers; Monreal, Maitland-Niles; Elneny, Iwobi; Welbeck, Walcott; Giroud.
Elite rivals
From his early successes at FC Porto, Mourhino’s success has been founded upon a meticulous scouting of and organising against the opposition, tactical prowess, game management, including ruthless substitutions, motivational skills and a ruthless winning mentality. If anything sums up the difference between his approach to players and that of Monsieur Wenger, it’s is the former’s brutal treatment of Luke Shaw and the latter’s patient and ever forgiving treatment of Theo Walcott (at least until 17 April). Antonio Conte and Diego Simeone are very much their own men, but have added to the template clever aggressive pressing and other elements such as pace and counterattacking. Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp are also adept at pressing techniques, game management and motivation – with the former renowned for his teams’ passing and movement and the latter their carefully coordinated pressing intensity. Mauricio Pochettino is of a similar ilk and has worked wonders with a low budget team and English core. All excel at highly pro-active game management as they passionately prowl their technical areas barking tactical instructions at their charges. Monsieur Wenger by contrast is very much more passive and, as things go wrong on the pitch, more likely to be seen sat with his head in his hands or up on his feet berating the fourth official.
The new breed of managers who employ the high press largely continued to triumph against Wenger. Conte’s Champions shared the League match spoils and lost the FA Cup Final. Pochettino took four points in the League and second place on a much lesser transfer and salary budget. Guardiola took four points in the League and Champions League qualification but lost the FA Cup Semi-Final. Klopp took all six points and edged Champions League qualification. At long last Mourhino was beaten and managed just one point against Monsieur Wenger, but he still landed two trophies and Champions League qualification. Arsenal remained bottom of the Premier League top 6 table at less than a point per match (9 points from 10 matches).
Candidates for the job
Some, bizarrely, still wonder who could replace Monsieur Wenger before his private reprieve by Arsenal’s different type of big game trophy hunter. Many supporters favourite was the Atlético Madrid manager Diego Simeone (47) who is noted for his expert tactical drilling and motivation of his team as the man in black passionately urges his men on from the touchline. Since joining in December 2011 he has worked miracles in competing with the financial might of Barcelona and Real Madrid. He has won La Liga, the Copa del Rey and the Europa League and been a Champions League finalist twice. In his four seasons in the competition he has only failed to make at least the semi-finals stage once (losing the quarter-final to Real Madrid).
Another worthy candidate would have been Leonardo Jardim (43) who worked miracles last season to overcome the financial might of PSG and win Ligue 1 for the first time in 17 years. Having trumped over Monsieur Wenger twice in the Champions League previously (also for Olympiacos), last season saw his most spectacular run with his attack-minded young team going on a great goal scoring run to the semi-final including an incredible 6 – 6 aggregate win against Manchester City on away goals.
Monaco’s exciting run came to an abrupt end at the hands of Juventus and they lost both matches to go out 4 - 1 on aggregate having faced a master-class in game management from Max Allegri (50). Arsenal Audit believes he should be managing Arsenal now. Having enjoyed a varied and impressive apprenticeship his tactical genius, flexibility and versatility has stood out at the Italian giants as he has built impressively on Antonio Conte’s success. He has won an incredible three successive Serie A and Coppa Italia doubles and has twice been a runner up in the Champions League.
Arsenal are currently ranked 7th in the Deloitte Money League with a revenue of 468.5 million euros, 50m behind 6th place PSG. Barcelona (679m) and Real Madrid (629m) are 2nd and 3rd. Juventus are 10th with their income lagging Arsenal by 120 million and Atlético 13th 240 million euros behind. Monaco were not listed and were even behind Sunderland who were in the penultimate 29th Place. Despite those clubs’ financial adversity both compared to Arsenal and their very wealthy league rivals, their much younger and more technically demanding managers having achieved an utterly different level of league and European success. The Chief Executive’s claim that Monsieur Wenger is the best candidate for the job is too ridiculous for words.
The weight of history
No. 9
One awkward historic stat is the poisoned chalice of the number 9 shirt (since the sale of Nicolas Anelka in 1999) that record signing Lacazette has taken from the suffering Lucas Perez. The new bearer certainly needs to seriously improve upon the mixed to very poor record of his predecessors: Suker, Jeffers, Reyes, Baptista, da Silva, Chu-young and the un-favoured Podolski and Perez. Providing he isn’t shunted wide too, the Frenchman looks well equipped to finally take over from his compatriot and deliver pace and goals. He certainly didn’t waste any time in opening his Premier League account.
Defence
As we have seen, Arsenal’s three at the back and two wing-backs formation is unlikely to be the panacea it may have seemed to some and Monsieur Wenger appears no closer to solving the sans-Santi ‘2’ conundrum than ever, nor does the obvious solution of recruiting a top class defensive midfield player appear on the horizon either. The days of George Graham’s latter period defensive excellence seem long gone. Defensive prowess continues to be found elsewhere in North London with Tottenham conceding a season record 26 Premier League goals to Arsenal’s equal 6th best 42. After a poor start as Conte got to grips with the Premier League, the Champions conceded only 33 and Manchester United 29. In the previous ‘continuity’ season Arsenal only conceded 36, like Champions Leicester, but were bettered by Tottenham and Manchester United (by one goal). The season before, Arsenal again only conceded 36 – but Mourhino’s Chelsea Champions conceded just 32 (and 7th place Southampton 33). Those have proved Arsenal’s best defensive seasons since Project Youth started 2008 - 2009. Last season was the second worst goals conceded tally since The Invincibles – thanks to the 2011 8 - 2 defeat at Old Trafford. The opening day farce won’t help this season’s stats. Hopefully, the return of Koscielny, Mertesacker and Mustafi will steady the ship
Defeats
Last season, Champions Chelsea lost five matches, Arsenal lost nine, the worst of the ‘Big 6’, with Tottenham best with only four defeats. Previously Champions Leicester and Chelsea both lost just three matches whilst Arsenal, equally consistently, lost seven. In the first season of Project Youth Arsenal lost six matches and Arsenal have fared worse in every subsequent Premier League season, losing between seven and ten matches. From that season onwards, the Premier League Champions have never lost more than six matches.
Points
Project Youth and last season’s 18 point deficit behind the Champions weren’t actually the worst (the 2011/12 season has that honour). In chronological order from 2009 to 2017 the gap was 18, 11, 12, 19, 16, 7, 12, 10 and 18 points.
Title challenges
Arsenal haven’t made a sustained title challenge since the Invincibles – incredibly, not spending one single day at the top of the table in April and May ever since 2004. Arsenal did make title challenges in 2008, 2010 and 2011, they just kept imploding early. In the latter, Arsenal were five points behind the leaders (Manchester United) after 29 matches with a game in hand. Even from 2013, and the era of Arsenal’s so-called ‘financial firepower’, their Premier League title-challenges have continued to finish earlier.
Prospects
There are some positives for Arsenal: Invincible Jens Lehman joining the coaching staff, medical improvements, the use of analytics and opposition scouting, late goals, often from sub Giroud, the move to three at the back and tactical late switching to four, the manner of the FA Cup win, and signing of Sead Kolasinac and club record Alexandre Lacazette, and the apparent preference for a faster offensive game. And Arsenal even managed a rare opening match win, albeit positionally and defensively farcically.
