Simon Hill
In the midst of last September’s post transfer deadline day media maelstrom I faced Ivan across the table at the Fans Forum and put it to him our transfer dealings looked like a shambles (players wanted out but were retained on run down contracts, players signed just last year were loaned out and rumoured to have been for sale, deals collapsing etc etc). I think it is fair to say Ivan was as close to apoplectic as Ivan probably gets saying words like “bullsh*t” and that we and the media weren’t privy to all the data and facts the club has on players, that it was a mix of fake stories and incredible circumstances and if he could talk freely off the record he could tell us what really happened and how complex big deals now were. There was talk of game theory and scenario modelling and huge databases on players who may be available and I think it’s fair to say we all said “whatever” and thought the problem was Arsene’s dithering and penny pinching and the club’s lack of football nous.
Well, in the light of this window I feel compelled to speak out on Ivan’s behalf because the club has just completed two innovative complex swap deals involving fellow top 6 clubs, bringing in €10m pa players and have in consequence re-signed one of our top two names on a €20m pa deal despite his entering the last six months of his deal on January 1. What made these unusual deals happen during the incredibly difficult January window was the construct of win/win arrangements between Arsenal, the top six club, the selling club, the players and their agents. This created a deal everyone wanted to happen and helped protect the deals from derailing by outside parties and as any city negotiator worth his salt will tell you, buy in from all the key players in a deal is key to getting it over the line.
Deals for top players (earning say €200k a week) are notoriously hard to complete even in the summer. The buyer is by definition one of Europe’s top 10 (the EPL 5, Spanish 2, Bayern, PSG or Juventus) and the selling club is reticent to sell a prized asset to either a big name or a fellow euro top 10 competitor. The vendor leaks the deal to try and generate an auction, they hold out to the last minute and demand premiums for selling to a top 10 club and in January the problem of arranging replacements is normally a total barrier to big name signings.
By going for swap deals involving fellow top 10 clubs Arsenal have broken the mould and knocked down one of the main barriers to completing a deal (finding a replacement) and removed much of the premium such deals normally involve. The swapped players (Mkhitaryan, Giroud, Batshuayi) get moves to clubs of status, on good pay, in cities their wives like and most importantly the promise of high profile game time. The clubs get players that solve a problem and/or lose a problem and even the super agent is happy once his reputation gets a boost from his posturing during the deal.
Of course many fans look at the deals and decry the fact we have strengthened a direct opponent but that is more emotional than logical as our gains outweigh our losses on the deals and it is our strength that counts. Cutting our noses off to spite our faces by keeping a super sub in Giroud and an out of form Sanchez instead of buying an Aubameyang, swapping in a Mkhitaryan and re-signing Ozil would have left us relatively considerably weaker than our rivals have been relatively strengthened so in my book Ivan’s game playing has paid huge dividends
Looking back at the summer you can now understand the Sanchez/Sterling swap talk that fizzled until either Guardiola or Sterling put a stop to it. Guardiola clearly had a new plan for Sterling, one he’s implemented to great effect but it is hard to see a swap ever being talked about without at first the player having been sounded out/sold the benefit and at the end of last season Sterling was on the fringe and facing personal challenges in the North West. Perhaps City did pull the plug on this last minute as they couldn’t bear to strengthen a rival or because Pep intervened and then came in last minute with a cash only offer? Who knows but swaps will clearly be featuring more often as the pool of clubs that can afford to take away a disillusioned €10m a year player is small and the top clubs will need to deal with each other to move on their problems. We’ve already heard talk of other swaps and we should expect to see other variations brokered during the summer.
Of course, whilst getting deals done for top players is a great facet for a club to have, picking the right top players to invest in is the thing that really counts. On unaffordable wages to all but nine other top clubs in Europe, mistakes are hard to get rid of and Arsenal must hope Xhaka, Mustafi and Lacazette work out on the pitch to say nothing of Aubameyang and Mkhitaryan as Arsenal’s recent track record remains open to question in this regard. And so Ivan and his new team are not totally off the hook in this writer’s eyes…
