Leigh Graydon
Since Wembley re-opened in 2007, Arsenal, after a bad start, have enjoyed their visits to the national stadium. The first two will be occasions to forget – a 2009 FA Cup semi-final defeat to Chelsea (for which Arsene Wenger decided his team could do without the recently signed Andrey Arshavin), and the 2011 League Cup final against Birmingham City, and we all know how that one concluded on a horrible dank February Sunday. (The weather forecast for next Sunday incidentally is for the game to be played in temperatures of 4 degrees, but at least it will be dry).
After that low point, the next nine trips were good days for the Gunners, and although the Arsenal vs City betting odds favour Pep Guardiola’s side, a look at the record of Arsene Wenger’s teams against big sides at Wembley gives cause for optimism.
Granted, in of those five of those nine matches – either in the FA Cup or Community Shield, Arsenal needed either extra time or penalties to emerge victorious, but the character and resilience they showed, especially in certain of the FA Cup games, saw them through.
To recap, the nine matches concerned were -
2014
FA Cup Semi Final – Wigan 1-1 (Arsenal win on penalties)
FA Cup Final – Hull 3-2 (in extra time)
Community Shield – Man City 3-0
2015
FA Cup Semi Final – Reading 2-1 (in extra time)
FA Cup Final – Aston Villa 4-0
Community Shield – Chelsea 1-0
2017
FA Cup Semi Final – Man City 2-1 (in extra time)
FA Cup Final – Chelsea 2-1
Community Shield – Chelsea 1-1 (Arsenal win on penalties)
This year, the club have already made one trip to Wembley, and it is a performance they will hope to put behind them, as they were fortunate to only lose 1-0 to Tottenham in the north London derby.
Manchester City’s shock defeat to Wigan in last night’s fifth round FA Cup tie is probably the worst thing that could have happened for Arsenal’s hopes. The fear is that City may come out like a wounded animal and play with even greater determination to put things right and register the first silverware for Guardiola since his arrival in England. Certainly, his side were unfortunate at Wigan, their League One hosts only registering one shot on target all game and only having to play against ten men in the second half after a questionable red card for Fabian Delph.
City put out a strong side against Wigan with many of the same players likely to start on Sunday, although they will probably need to play a centre back at left back on Sunday to cover for Delph’s suspension, with Benjamin Mendy still out injured. Guardiola might also stick with his domestic cup keeper policy and play Claudio Bravo, which would also help Arsenal’s chances. They will though, benefit from the recent return of Sane and Silva.
Arsene Wenger will doubtless maintain his own cup keeper David Ospina in goal, and it is highly probable that Laurent Koscielny will start the final. The Frenchman is likely to play out the rest of the season managing his ongoing achilles tendon injury, with the manager only playing him once a week at the most. Wenger looks to have returned to 4-4-2 as his preferred formation, so Bellerin, Mustafi and Monreal will make up the rest of the defence.
Going forward, things get more unpredictable. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is eligible for the final, and so will most likely be flanked by Mesut Ozil and one of Danny Welbeck or Alex Iwobi (Henrik Mkhitaryan being cup-tied).
The midfield though, is where things are even less settled. Was Granit Xhaka finally dropped for the trip to Ostersunds? If so, then a midfield trio of Elneny, Maitland-Niles and Jack Wilshere might start at Wembley, assuming Aaron Ramsey is not fit to play – which given the uncertainty over a prediction for a return from his current muscular injury seems to be the case. Defensively, it’s probably as solid as an Arsenal midfield can be from the current squad, although the amount of attacks Ostersunds created against Elneny and Maitland-Niles in Sweden will have given City plenty of encouragement.
Given what we have seen so far this season, it will need Manchester City to play below their best and Arsenal to reproduce the determination and focus that saw them overcome Chelsea in the semi-final, for the Gunners to lift the trophy. Last season, Wenger’s team enjoyed their fair share of fortune to win out against City in the FA Cup semi-final, although the hunger the team displayed, in contrast to what had been seen in the Premier League, was an eye-opener.
Ultimately though, finals are one-offs. They don’t always follow form. If Arsenal rattle City, and take their chances in what will probably be a very open game after some initial caginess, they can win.
An omen if you want one is that last season, on the weekend of the FA Cup semi-final, Arsenal were due to host Man City in the league. They won the game played at Wembley. This season… the final takes place on the weekend that Guardiola’s side were supposed to be playing at the Emirates, a game now rescheduled to Thursday 1st March.
One final word of warning for fans travelling early on Sunday. Chelsea play Manchester United at 2.05. Around lunchtime, the underground network will be packed with supporters of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Man City. It could be a cocktail as unappetising as the exchanges we are likely to see between Antonio Conte and Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge. Be careful!
