Leigh Graydon
It may be somewhat of a surprise, given the form of the two sides, but for tomorrow evening’s Round of 16 Europa League first leg match, the Milan vs Arsenal betting odds do not currently have the home side as odds on to win the game.
Perhaps there is enough belief that the Gunners’ run of defeats simply has to stop somewhere, and the nature of the tie means that a draw is a perfectly acceptable result. Looking a little further back than the last four matches, in the first leg of the pair of two legged-ties played by Arsenal in this calendar year, the results were highly creditable. The opening game of the Carabao Cup semi-final against Chelsea saw a more resilient display than many others in this campaign, as the visitors kept a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge.
And in the previous round of this competition, the first match in the tie against Ostersunds in Sweden witnessed a comfortable 3-0 victory for Arsene Wenger’s side. So, just perhaps, a first leg victory for the Italians isn’t a given.
Arsenal, historically, have enjoyed mixed fortunes when visiting Milan’s home stadium, the San Siro. Their first trip, under George Graham for the second leg of the 1994/95 European Super Cup saw them suffer defeat to Milan 2-0, after a goal-less first leg at Highbury. Their subsequent trips have all been during Arsene Wenger’s tenure, and all in the Champions League. The first was in November 2003, although it was to play the city’s other team, Inter. However it was a memorable occasion, as Arsenal, in the Invincibles season, won by an incredible 5-1 scoreline. This was in the group phase of the competition, but the result was key to their progress after a slow start in the early matches, including a 3-0 defeat at home to Inter.
The good times continued in their next visit, this time to face Milan in March 2008. After a goal-less first leg at the Emirates, Arsenal triumphed 2-0 against the then Champions League holders, an incredible result for a relatively young team. Of course, it merely delayed the team’s exit at the hands of Liverpool in the next round, but on the evening in question, it felt like a seismic shift. Interestingly, given recent speculation, the Milan manager at the time was a certain Carlo Ancelotti. Mind you, Ancelotti was in charge at Bayern when they whipped the Gunners 10-2 on aggregate in 2017. They do say revenge is a dish best eaten cold…
The last visit has less happy memories, again to face Milan in a last 16 Champions League tie. It was four years on, in 2012, and this time a first leg. Arsenal were ripped a new one, as they suffered a 4-0 beating. At the time it was Arsenal’s heaviest ever European defeat. They raised hopes in the return leg by going 3-0 up in the first half, but it was not to be.
So a mixed record, but a respectable one, of two wins in four visits. But history counts for nothing, although both Laurent Koscielny and Aaron Ramsey played in the 2012 game.
Arsenal’s main concern will be the form Milan are showing under their former player (who they faced in 2008) Gennaro Gatuso. Since taking over in late November last year, the Rossoneri have only lost two matches in 16, one of those in a meaningless final Europa League group match in Croatia (Milan had already secured first place in their group). Their last defeat was before Christmas.
Gattuso has returned the once famed miserly reputation to the Milan defence. In the eleven matches played so far in 2018, only three goals have been conceded. Significantly, the team, like Arsenal, have played two two-legged cup ties. In those four games, not a single goal went in against them.
So, there is little argument that Milan have become galvanized, organized and efficient under a fresh regime, something that Arsenal fans can only dream of at the moment. Far be it from me to suggest how you might spend your money, but the current price of 11/10 on a Milan victory in the first leg is looking pretty generous to these eyes.
