Arsenal’s Premier League campaign has as good as reached ‘on the beach’ territory. A 100% record from here on in until the end of the season would give them 72 points, three less than last season, when they finished fifth. Fourth placed Tottenham would only need to gain 12 points from their remaining eight fixtures to keep Arsenal below them. Not forgetting the path to a top four place also necessitates overtaking Chelsea (eight points above Arsenal).
Those of a betting persuasion would get very long odds on an Arsenal top four finish from the likes of Winner Sport, although European football in the form of another Europa League campaign is on the cards next season unless Arsenal conspire to finish 7th and Southampton win the FA Cup.
So it’s fair to say that there is not too much at stake for the Gunners’ remaining Premier League fixtures. Four of these are at home – to Stoke, Southampton, West Ham and Burnley. Fortunately, the Southampton and West Ham matches, at first moved to Monday night for TV broadcast, have now been re-scheduled for early Sunday afternoons, apparently with Europa League matches the subsequent Thursdays in mind.
However, the amount of no-shows at the previous two domestic home games – against Manchester City and Watford, look set to be repeated. Weather was used as a reason for the poor turnout against the league leaders, and then it was Mother’s Day that kept tens of thousands away when Troy Deeney and company were in opposition. What next? Easter? People are away? Too busy on chocolate egg hunts? If Arsenal were going for the title, I suspect they’d somehow manage to make it.
The undeniable reality is that a very large number of season tickets holders have lost interest in watching Arsenal unless there is something at stake. So there will be a decent attendance at the CSKA Moscow home leg next week – because it’s a game that matters.
People are creatures of habit, and the habit of picking and choosing which games to attend is one that has developed among more and more modern day season ticket holders. The purchase of a season ticket is, for many, something that gives them an option on attending home games, but it is not something necessarily done with the idea of a commitment to always watch the team in the flesh.
This is not going to change anytime soon. Arsene Wenger’s stated aim is to please the Arsenal fans with entertaining, stylish football. It’s arguable whether his team is still producing that consistently, but even if they are, it is not persuading people to use seats they have already paid for far too often.
Granted, there is no direct impact to the club’s finances when season ticket holders do not turn up. Worse affected will be Delaware North, who run the catering operation and take the bulk of the profits there. But in terms of the club’s image, repeated swathes of empty seats are not healthy for the club’s pursuit of increased sponsorship. If no-one is interested in the club, then why would companies want to align themselves with something indicative of failure?
And ultimately, I believe it is this that will mean a change of manager this summer. Ivan Gazidis stated in 2011 that ‘Arsene is ultimately accountable to the fans - they ultimately make judgment. If you are seeing the relationship between the fans and the manager break down over time that is unsustainable.' The relationship has broken down to the point that fans have decided to vote with their feet, not having the appetite for protest. And Jamie Carragher may currently be persona-non-grata at present, but he had a point when he said that apathy is a far worse than protest. At least those displaying their ‘Wenger Out’ banners are actually bothering to turn up.
If Arsene Wenger managed to achieve Champions League qualification for next season, then there is a possibility that he would be allowed to serve the final year of his contract. However, a half-full stadium for the remaining four Premier League matches might be too big a message to ignore, if fears of a repeat next season are in the mind of the club’s decision maker(s). 30,000 in a 60,000 stadium just isn’t a good look.