Kevin Whitcher
‘If you look at our season we have championship-winning home form and away from home we have the consequences of many things. A lack of confidence causes a few bad results and after that we neglected some games because we were in the Europa League. But the quality is there and the spirit is exceptional. I think if the team get one or two good away results next year they will play for the Premier League next season, I am convinced. There is something in special in that team that will come out next season and I am convinced Arsenal will be one of the contenders next year.’
The words of the Arsenal manager after another away defeat at Leicester. Arsène has become the master of excuses, a master of the selective statistic. Expected goals was one he used this season when it indicated his team should have won the home match against Manchester United. It’s interesting to look at the “championship-winning home form”. Arsenal are actually second in the home form table… to the actual championship winners. So it isn’t actually championship winning home form.
As for ‘There is something in special in that team that will come out next season and I am convinced Arsenal will be one of the contenders next year,’ he’s trying to shape the narrative that any success the man that follows him will enjoy is down to him. In reality, Wenger’s team will be ripped apart before the club challenge for the title again. Two seasons without Champions League football married with a spiralling wage bill has lessened the club’s ability to compete in the transfer market, the drop in profits the reason he has been told it’s over. But Arsène never did humility. Crying poverty by claiming that the first few years at the Emirates were his biggest achievements ("Because to accept to commit to five years when you build the stadium to work with restricted resources and keep the club in a position where we can pay our debts back, I personally feel I did my best job in that period. Not the most glamorous maybe, but the most difficult.") at a time a huge increase in income and the amount of money in the club’s coffers growing year on year as he chose to indulge himself in project youth rather than buy players like Xabi Alonso. It’s a myth he has repeated so often most people, even journalists, believe it.
So where are we now? The rebuild begins – I predict with indecent haste – the moment he has left the building. I suspect he will have cleared out his effects from his office at London Colney before the trip to Huddersfield, so that he can get away for a couple of weeks’ holiday immediately before he considers his options and then works at the World Cup for Bein Sports. There does not look to be any scheduled end of season Arsenal Foundation charity dinner for a change this year. It’s almost as if they decided against one because they knew Arsène would not be attending. Some of his support staff will be out on their ear with him – Primorac, Peyton, Banfield are obvious hangers on, employed for years because of past indebtedness and nepotism respectively in the cases of Primorac and Banfield. Paid up to the end of their current deals as the manger has been (in spite of ‘resignation’ normally meaning no pay off).
Although Arsenal are not rushing the appointment of a new manager, I suspect one will be announced soon after the European leagues finish business on May 20th. However, the structure is in place to secure new players regardless of the new first team coach. Sven Mislintat has been in post for over six months now. As well as scouting players to bring to the club, he has been running the rule over the existing squad. Expect a lot of players to be moved on or loaned out over the summer. There are plenty of comfort zone coasters there, as well as players who are past their best or never reached their potential. Mislintat was doubtless influential in the securing of Aubameyang and the decision of Mkhitaryan to accept the swap deal that saw him move from Old Trafford.
Additionally, he secured Mavraponos from Greece. There looks to be a good defender in the making there but the Leicester game revealed he is still very much a rookie and needs the kind of coaching which Steve Bould can administer, although has been limited up to now in being able to do so, due to Arsène’s strict limits on the amount of time his players spend on the training ground. Bould’s frustrations are known by the hierarchy at the club, and he is likely to be one of the survivors in the clearout of the backroom staff.
The recruitment process though will be interesting. Expect the club to go bargain basement shopping for players either at the end of their current deals or with one year left. There are unlikely to be many, if any, purchases on the scale of Lacazette and Aubameyang, although these might happen if players like Ozil, Ramsey and Bellerin are sold. And if Ramsey does not agree a new deal this summer, he almost certainly will be. Financially, the club is not in a position to let players run down their contracts any longer. Raul Sanllehi’s reputation is high, and I suspect his work will mean that targets are secured with a great deal more efficiency than they have been when Arsène had the final word in the negotiations. There will be less cases of “I almost signed… (fill in the blank from dozens of choices)”
The majority of the incoming players will be priced from £5m to £25m. We are now looking at unpolished diamonds that, with the right coaching, can be turned into the players the club needs to challenge. And make no mistake, the appointment of Wenger’s successor will be a man with a very different approach to match preparation. Far more hands on, rather than the express yourself and ‘play, play, play’ idealism of his predecessor. ‘Play, play, play’ is fine if you have experienced players who know how to do it both with and without the ball (Ajax in the early 1970s, Liverpool in the 70s/80s and Milan late 80s/early 90s being prime examples). Arsène’s earlier Arsenal teams had the right mix of personnel (although notably failed to conquer Europe). Sadly, the break up of the Invincibles exposed the limitations of this philosophy, and the club failed to win another domestic title.
Your author is not anticipating another title challenge of any substance until we have seen two seasons under a new manager. The wreckage he will inherit is simply too great, exposing the idea that “Arsenal will be one of the contenders next year” as a fallacy, expressed to say ‘look at the great work I have done and the wonderful shape I am leaving the club in as I depart’. Arsenal have won three Premier League matches in 18 attempts this season, and are currently on a streak of seven away defeats. At home, their record against the teams below them is laudable – although it should be noted that against the five teams that will finish above them, the home record is won 1, drawn 2, lost 2 – 5 points out of 15. To challenge for the title you have to take points from your direct opponents. Away from home against the same five, the record is won 0, drawn 1, lost 4. One point from 15. Six points from 30 against the top five sides isn’t a coincidence or down to bad refereeing.
All I want to see initially is progress. A credible attempt to return the team to the top four. That will make it easier to secure quality signings in the summer of 2019. I’d like to see the return of the kind of defensive solidity and knowhow I associate with Arsenal’s best teams. Arsène always talks about the club’s values, but defensive solidity was one he did not care too much about. I asked him about this in the days when he would take questions from the floor at the shareholders’ AGM and he told me that you can’t buy defenders like they are on a shelf in the supermarket. The insinuation being that the quality required was not available. Well, maybe with a decent scouting team, you might have been able to find the next Nemanja Vidic. I actually have a feeling that the club’s most expensive signing this summer will be Toby Alderweireld from Tottenham, who is not going to sign an extension and has a year left on his deal. Shades of Sol Campbell. It will be dependent on Spurs’ resolve and whether they can afford to let him depart on a free in 2019. There is no debate that the club’s priority this summer will be securing better defensive-minded players.
In summary, I am optimistic. We are entering the unknown for the first time in years. Next season will be anything but predictable, because it’s all new. The buzz will certainly return to the club, because there will be a genuine feeling of hope, something we haven’t felt at Arsenal for far too long.
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