A Post Wenger Reality Check

Arsenal are sinking, and turning the decline around is a huge task



A Post Wenger Reality Check

Stan – With him as an owner, the odds are stacked against the club


Anyone expecting miracles at AFC now that Arsene has finally been given his marching orders would have received a very loud wakeup call on the opening weekend of the new season.

It has seemed like decades that we have been hanging on in groundhog day type scenarios waiting beyond patiently for Arsene to politely do the honourable thing and leave the building. The fact the guy didn’t ever have the decency to leave of his own accord kind of sums the latter part of his reign up but that’s another story.

The sad reality for me as a true AFC fan is that Arsene was simply allowed to stay on for far too long. The last few years of his reign were masked over with a few FA Cup wins. The first two of which were down to very kind draws and even the third came after us playing two non-league sides on the way to the semi-finals.

The truth was laid to bare that Arsene could not possibly lift his side to a big trophy success anymore the season Leicester won the title. At any truly ‘Big’ club the manager would have been given his marching orders for that no doubt. But as we simply are no longer ran like a big club should be we let him linger on for another couple of seasons after that abject failure.

We are now going to have to pay the price for that. Unai has come in to take over a squad that has failed to finish in the lucrative top four for the past two seasons in a row. Make no mistake, finishing in the top four is now considerably harder than it ever has been in the past.

We as a club have allowed other rival teams far too much ground prior to Unai taking over for him to find a top four finish anything other than a mountain to climb.

Any true analysis of the facts concerning transfer spending and current squad value shows this to be the case.

Liverpool this summer have spent around £150m NET. They required a holding midfielder and a new goalkeeper and went out and spent a combined £110m on Keita and Allisson. We needed the same positions to be filled and spent a combined £45m on Leno who wasn’t deemed good enough to start ahead of Cech on the opening day of the season and Torreira.

People would point to the fact that Liverpool are in the Champions League so can possibly spend more on new players. I don’t agree at all. What did we do when we qualified for the Champions League 20 years in a row? Did we spend anything like those funds to try and push on from 4th (where Liverpool have finished in the league for the past two seasons) and be competitive at the very top of the tree? No we did not. The answer lies not in the fact that Liverpool are in the Champions League but more in the simple fact that they are showing more ambition as a club to truly compete than we ever did when we had the chance.

It isn’t just Liverpool either. Another good example is by looking not too far down the road to Tottenham. Last January they decided to try and give Trippier some more competition at right back. They went out and bought Aurier from PSG for around £25m. Aurier has not managed to get himself in front of Trippier as first choice right back and looking at what Trippier achieved at the World Cup he may never achieve that goal. The point is Spurs as a club were more than willing to go out and spend £25m on a squad player. Spurs also at the same time decided to get some more competition for places at centre half, they spent the best part of £36m on Davison Sanchez. When he was purchased he certainly wasn’t guaranteed a starting place as Spurs already had Vertonghen and Alderwerield in those births.

This summer we took the same decision in the same positions, we needed to offer some more competition to Bellerin’s place at right back and we managed to sign Lichsteiner who is 34 years of age on a free transfer. We then ‘splashed the cash’ so to speak with the £16m signing of Sokratis the 30 year old Greek centre half from Dortmund. The difference not only being the fact that Sokratis was some £20m cheaper than Davison Sanchez but the fact that many people seem to be of the opinion that due to us spending ‘so much money’ on Sokratis that he automatically becomes a first choice centre half at the club.

If you take a step back from all this and put it into context Arsenal have spent £20m less on a centre half than Spurs and see him as an automatic starter whereas the centre half that Spurs bought for £20m more has to fight it out for his place.

Why should this be the case for any other reason than one linked solely to ambition? Spurs do not create more revenue than us. They have a far smaller wage bill than us also.

Some people make the excuse that ‘we spent a lot of money in January’ on the likes of Auba and Miki. In reality we did not spend any money across the summer of 2017/18 or January 2018, we made a marginal profit spread across both of those transfer windows. The people that choose to highlight the signings also fail to highlight the sales of the likes of Walcott, Giroud, Cocquelin and the release of Sanchez this January. The summer before we also cashed in on a number of players including around £35m in one hit for The Ox.

Anyone that still hasn’t realised we are without doubt now the sixth biggest club right now and falling lower should take a look at this table.

It shows the current estimated value of each and every Premier League clubs squad at present. Forget City who lead the way at over £964m. The real concern for us Gooners should be the clear and alarming differences between us and the other four teams ahead of us in the top six.

Liverpool £809m
Chelsea £787m
Man United £769m
Spurs £751m
Arsenal £506m

This means our current first team squad has a combined value that is £245m less than Spurs. Yet the last time I checked our wage bill was around 50% higher than theirs. How the f*** does that happen?

It happens through an inability for AFC to sell players on for high enough fees and also more alarmingly it happens through AFC having a total inability to tie valuable squad members down to new contracts in time.

You take the above facts and figures and then add in to the equation our owner’s total lack of interest in putting in any of his own funds to help purchase a better quality of player and you then begin to realise just how bigger job Unai now has on his hands just to try and return us to the top four.


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22
comments

  1. Seven Kings Gooner 1

    Aug 18, 2018, 8:30 #111780

    Managing a football club that has over 100 million pounds worth of players that you don't fancy, yet have to play to keep their resale value up is the major problem Emery has inherited. Who is going buy Xhaka for 35 million - no one, so Emery has to include him in the squad, we have a clutch of centre backs who are not top quality yet have cost north of 50 million. I am not passing any judgment on Dick until the end of this season and possibly well into his second year, he has inherited London's version of "The real Marigold Hotel" and it will take time, possibly 4 - 5 years. Personally I hope he fits in some of our talented yet raw youngsters, some of whom seem to really care and that is all I have ever wanted from an Arsenal team.

  2. TOOAW

    Aug 17, 2018, 23:44 #111779

    Big Tone (TA6) weighed it up nicely. Most will disagree but the essence of TA’s argument is that we are going to be mediocre for some time.The new coach has made his signings and the yes men at the club have had the chance to obliterate the old regime. Unai and his crew signed a new GK. Cech was named in front of him vs City. Why?? Personally, we will beat Chelsea 3-1 and all is good again. God help us if we don't.

  3. CORNISH GOONER

    Aug 17, 2018, 19:20 #111777

    I think this article is way too negative if the implication is that the solution to our current problems is just to spend, spend, spend. I don't believe in"elite" players just because they come with a mega price tag. Let's just wait & see how many of this Windows "next big things" actually make an impact & justify their fee. I do, however, believe in elite managers &, amazingly, I think AFC have managed to recruit one in Dick. As to the invulnerability of our appalling owner, The Wigmeister, after the novelty has worn off you can forget competitive games in the good 'ole US of A & you can forget the possibility of Tourists replacing disaffected fans IF things take a turn for the worse. In this Media & Sponsor driven age the lack of bums on seats still matters. It did for Arthur & it would surely force Wiggy to open the chequebook for Dick to complete the jigsaw. Not possible to just stand still in this competitive market with loads of other dreadful owners looking for the holy grail of Champions League footie. Finally, written in frustration, what the bloody hell have Kloppy & Pochy actually won & what are the chances of a 59 year old, chain smoking Chelski manager turning to e-cigarettes - don't think he has won a lot either!

  4. jjetplane

    Aug 17, 2018, 18:25 #111776

    Over 100 thousand watching Utd/Liverpool in a nothing match this summer in the US. The big clubs will be watching this and thinking a couple of games a season abroad would be just the ticket/s and that is why RM and Barca want in first. Wiggy is on the ground on this one and will only be a matter of time. Watching Amazon now in the act showing Xmas PL matches for Prime customers and this weird FB deal for free Spanish football for the Asian market. Chuck in the news that some clubs can manage without fans and the game is really stretching to a collapsible degree. Of course the likes of Wiggy loves a fan who will part with 70 squid a game. Exhibition football/soccer takes on a new meaning as perhaps two clubs go for the big ones and the rest just want to stay in the league just dining at the table. That's modern Fuseball. Guendouzi to be booked Saturday is one cert. Let's hope he scores to as it's been a long time since AFC had a hero. All eyes on Ozil's contribution too.

  5. Exeter Ex

    Aug 17, 2018, 18:25 #111775

    Dial Square - a nod to history, perfect! Presumably there's nothing the Corporation could do about that, nor the simple fact of playing in red shirts with white sleeves, nor having a cannon so long as it's not a stupid cartoon cartoon facing the wrong way. You can see this happening in the next few years... there's no 'we' in the hollow shell calling itself Arsenal now.

  6. Made Up Stat

    Aug 17, 2018, 18:12 #111774

    Exeter/Moscow - I'm in. I'll bring the monkey nuts.

  7. John F

    Aug 17, 2018, 17:47 #111773

    I wouldn't be surprised if a European league comes about because of fan apathy in domestic leagues that are being dominated by one of one or two clubs.What Wiggy has to keep an eye on is that he has to keep a level of interest for Arsenal to be competitive so they can be involved in it otherwise the club will lose its value.We may well get our Arsenal back playing in a Domestic league Div one minus Wiggy and minus City,Liverpool,Utd and Chelsea.

  8. GoonerRon

    Aug 17, 2018, 17:38 #111772

    I get the gist of what’s being said but I’m not sure the examples you cite are particularly representative. You could argue that Spuds selling Kyle Walker for £50m+ and replacing him with an inferior player who ‘only’ cost £25m is not exactly ambitious. And I’m not at all convinced that Liverpool would have (or could afford to) spend the sums they have this summer without selling one of their best players (how many times have we been told losing your best players is not exactly a sign of ambition) in January for such a ridiculous sum. And anyway, to assume Allison will automatically be brilliant because of the price tag could be a mistake. Don’t forget he has only played two seasons in Europe (in his first he couldn’t get ahead of Szczesny at Roma). We have got a similarly aged keeper with far more experience in a top league for nearly a quarter of the price. The jury will decide on both but I personally don’t always equate ambition with just what a club spends in transfer fees. As for squad values, that is a very fluid equation impacted by so many factors. Yes, we’re clearly not in the best place with squad strength relative to others but a sterling season or two from Torreira could see him worth £100m in a heartbeat, likewise Guendouzi or Nelson such is the insanity of the market and their age. Spuds’ values are no doubt propped up by a once-in-a-generation striker and vastly overrated English midfielder who happens to be the darling of the media. Lastly on Kroenke - I must admit I don’t particularly like the guy but I must also admit to not getting as bent of shape as some about him not putting money into the club. I’d definitely prefer he didn’t take money out, that is for sure, but how many other clubs are posting huge losses in their accounts that are being underwritten by their owners? Exceptional cases like Citeh and Chelsea aside (although with FFP they have curbed their excessive spending relative to income recently), as far as I can see Man U, Liverpool, Spuds all largely spend on transfers and wages what they earn in revenue. Where we can be criticised is how effectively we have distributed our income in terms of who we’ve bought, how much we’ve paid in fees and what we’ve paid the players. Also, what we receive for players we sell always seems below ‘market value’ - e.g - we got the same for Szczesny last summer with 150+ PL/CL appearances as Liverpool got from Leicester this season for their 4th choice GK who’s barely played a PL game. That has to change.

  9. Exiled in Pt

    Aug 17, 2018, 17:32 #111771

    A proper cannon facing to the right as you look at the shirt , proper colour's i am in FC Gooners will do or Dial square , Exeter and Moscow i think we might have started something here ..........

  10. Moscowgooner

    Aug 17, 2018, 17:12 #111769

    It won't be 'FC Arsenal', given the ferocity of the club in taking on anyone who 'infringes copyright'.... But it could be 'FC Dial Square', with standing terraces, classic shirts (red and white - with yellow and blue for the second strip) and a proper cannon on the badge rather than the Disneyesque monstrosity.

  11. mbg

    Aug 17, 2018, 16:50 #111768

    Poor old peter wain still trying to back and defend the un defendable, You couldn't make it up. Onwards and upwards.

  12. mbg

    Aug 17, 2018, 16:36 #111767

    John, one things for dammed sure, regardless Kroenke is now the outright owner or not, none of us had, or was going to have, any confidence whatsoever in things turning around any time soon under the old weasel, it was never going to happen, ever, and it was proved, regardless of all the false dawns we heard from him and his followers, this is our year, we're ready to go, after every regulation win or two against relegation material at the start of every season. No it might not turnaround any time soon (and none of us are expecting it to, (and some are hoping and praying it won't) but it can't get any worse now wengers gone, we can eventually look forward and upwards again. Exciting times ahead.

  13. Exeter Ex

    Aug 17, 2018, 16:30 #111766

    It's important to be realistic. I can't see any reason to be optimistic with Kroenke sole owner. Just look at his other sports franchises. People may say 'he'll make more money if AFC are successful' but that involves risk. His model is low risk profit. I think Emery is up for the challenge but will have to be a genius to be successful with this owner. Anyway, I think Arsenal, and top level football, has disappeared into dead eyed uber-capitalism forever, or rather until it inevitably eats itself. I like the idea of FC Arsenal in the North London league. Red shirt with white sleeves (no pink bands), yellow + blue for away. £7 entry, pint on the terrace. Great.

  14. 1971 Gooner

    Aug 17, 2018, 15:55 #111765

    I agree with some of the points in this article, but I don’t think that Sp*rs spending £25M on a backup right back who is not good enough for the first team is an example of good governance or indeed ambition of a football club. Money helps, but there’s more to building a team than simply spending it; see what Jose is kicking up at Man Utd with Pogba for example. Agree AW stayed far too long, but let’s give Unai sufficient time to put things right and then decide if we are a sinking ship.

  15. Exiled in Pt

    Aug 17, 2018, 15:34 #111764

    i give it 2 seasons and Dick walks away from the club due to lack of backing from Wiggy!! I genuinely hope i am wrong but i do think this is the end of the club unless someone takes over from the Wank Yank .. He will bleed the club dry whilst settling for more mediocrity ! My prediction is within 5 years we will see an FC Arsenal in the North London league when we have had all our identity robbed by the current owner .. (hope i am wrong) In the meantime lets hope Dick can turn it around quicker than we all expect .

  16. mbg

    Aug 17, 2018, 15:09 #111763

    Good Article John, I don't think there were/are many of us expecting miracles, not those who knew and could see the truth and what was happening over the last thirteen seasons and was still happening and getting worse as every day went by anyway, and knew and know exactly what it's going to take for the new manager and regime to put everything right after the mess left by the last old waster and his, yes it's a huge task alright but just think of the decline there would have been and task it would take if the AKB wengerites would have got their way and the old waster would have been left to his own devices for another couple of years, now that would have been depressing. At least we can now look forward and up wards. Exciting times ahead.

  17. jjetplane

    Aug 17, 2018, 14:26 #111762

    Wiggy will see top four as cake icing which I doubt he wants to work too hard for. Over the next decade Arsenal will be a top six team and sure if the crowds drop by 10 thou that will not be a calamity and probably more deals for tourists and floating fans will keep the ship steady. Made up stat says a lot of good things there and the PL and possible games being played in the US will be the next big thing and flying 'fans' out to NYC for a derby game will certainly be a money maker. Whatever happens we know Wiggy is not really a sportsfan (sic) and that was why he kept the erudite Monsieur Wenger (hushed tones) on for so long. Both are money grabbers with Wenger presenting the spin. Don't see Unai in that Wenger mold but see him as a more honest bloke who likes his football. He could surprise us but I think trying to keep up with the Spuds, Chelksi and Utd will be more than enough to contend with. Then we have Palce, Everton, Leicester and the likes pushing on and you have a moneyed league with a lot of conjestion. Feeling underwhelmed by most of it already so happy to go see a County game tonight where I am supporting a team who are in deep trouble and just surviving in the 9th tier. That is real football.

  18. GoonGer

    Aug 17, 2018, 14:07 #111761

    Remember there’s every chance Usmanov will get involved with his pal up at Goodson!! So it could be more of a reality than you think.

  19. peter wain

    Aug 17, 2018, 13:35 #111760

    I agree our transfer dealings have been poor for some time. and it is not all down to Wenger. The owner and board have a lot to answer for. This transfer window was a disaster and I cannot think when we had a decent one.

  20. markymark

    Aug 17, 2018, 11:24 #111759

    John - my very confident prediction is we will not see Everton replace by the end of the season. It took Spurs years and years to supplant us for two seasons. It’s still not guaranteed they will be able to do it this year with their off field issues. Spurs have still won nothing , still flattering to deceive . Liverpool blew up Wenger style in the champions league final though I do suspect they will be the pushing Man City hard and ultimately finish second. We are making a lot of best guessing around why certain players are being played. Would you throw in a brand new Young keeper against City first match of the season ? Big call that I’d say . Almost like playing Karius in the final . A lot of people are forgetting Unai spent considerable time at Kronke’s ranch getting to know him . Either Stan’s a grade A bullshiner? Or Unai doesn’t care about winning? Or maybe, just maybe Stan and Unai do have a convincing plan for Arsenal and Unai actually thinks it’s deliverable . I know that sounds crazy but you never know!

  21. RobG

    Aug 17, 2018, 10:15 #111758

    Very strong article John. This :- "You take the above facts and figures and then add in to the equation our owner’s total lack of interest in putting in any of his own funds to help purchase a better quality of player and you then begin to realise just how bigger job Unai now has on his hands just to try and return us to the top four." - is clearly true. And it's why I don't think he will achieve that by next May. Maybe, the season after ?....Maybe..

  22. Made Up Stat

    Aug 17, 2018, 9:56 #111757

    Understand what you're saying John, but the truly obscene amounts of money being spent today (Wenger's salary could have funded 200 new nurses a year) makes me want this whole Premiership sh*t show to eat itself. Arguments for playing league games in the US or Asia in order to gain revenue to pay even more inflated prices for disinterested prima donnas? I think your last paragraph could describe any fan following top tier football. There's more to being a supporter than success - the soul of our game has been flogged off to those who's only care for it is that's a nice little earner.