Kevin Whitcher
I’ve been banging on for a while now on my assertion that 76 points should be enough to secure Champions League football next season via fourth place. And doing a tally of the remaining matches, that still appears to be the case – for Arsenal at least. One positive of the legacy of Jose Mourinho’s final months at Old Trafford is that Man Utd are seven goals worse off than Arsenal. This can change, but given their remaining fixtures it’s unlikely.
I think that we may have to accept that, unless Arsenal win all of their remaining matches, St Totteringham’s Day might not happen this season. Granted, Spurs may well lose at the Etihad, but their other four matches are bread and butter even by Tottenham’s standards and their notorious ability to Spurs things up. Since the move back to the refurbished Lane, they have won every game there. No settling in dramas. So from 67 points now, I have them finishing on 79 and in third. I simply do not see Arsenal making 81 points, which is that they would need given Spurs’ superior goal difference (although four wins and a draw would also give the Gunners 79 points, it’s unlikely they will outscore them).
So what about Chelsea? I reckon that they will lose at Old Trafford, although some might think that a draw there would be the perfect result for Arsenal. Perhaps not so, given Chelsea are only five behind Arsenal on goal difference. I have them winning their other three matches. So a total of 75 points (a draw at United would take them to 76)
So we come to Manchester United. And the four points Arsenal have taken off them could be very significant by the season’s end. I think they are going to lose the Manchester derby. City cannot afford to slip up in a single one of their games looking at Liverpool’s run-in. And United’s defence in front of David De Gea isn’t what it used to be when they had the likes of Ferdinand and Vidic in tandem. Arsenal would certainly prefer United to lose to City rather than Chelsea. If this did happen, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side would finish on 76 points, assuming they win all their other games aside from the derby. They have no further Champions League distractions, something that will also apply to one of Spurs or Man City by this time tomorrow.
Things should be a lot clearer by the end of April, with all of the less predictable results having been decided.
Except for Arsenal that is. To get 76 points and maintain goal difference superiority over United, they need to win both of their home matches – that’s a given, to take them to 72 points. It would certainly assist their cause if they could put away Palace and Brighton in those fixtures comfortably. That leaves them needing four more from the trips to Wolves, Leicester and Burnley. Could Burnley be on the beach by the last day of the season? They might need to be. Arsenal can, in theory, afford to lose one (although maybe only by a single goal) and draw one from the other two away trips.
Of course, they could make life easy for themselves by winning every remaining league match this season. And years back, you’d have fancied them to against this level of opposition. It’s a different story these days though, as the last two seasons have made obvious.
I haven’t filled in a predicted total for Arsenal. God alone knows what might happen. Five wins? 81 points and third place? Unlikely, but you would have to say they need a minimum of 76 points, and if other results go their way, that should be enough. Three wins and a draw from five remaining games, although the possibility of a further two European games in the event that they progress past Napoli will make that task marginally more demanding.
So Arsenal know what they have to do, and at least they are in control of their own destiny as it stands. One thing I think most Gooners who saw the performance at Vicarage Road on Monday evening will agree on. The players will have to play better than that to get any further away points.
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