The usual five talking points ahead of this evening’s Europa League match away to Napoli.

Fortress San Paolo?
Napoli have only lost once at home in 22 matches this season, that being to Juventus. They have drawn five times thought, a result that would do Arsenal just fine and given the first leg result you’d imagine that the priority of Emery’s side will be not conceding rather than seeking an away goal. A boring 0-0 would do just fine. The Italian side have won five of six previous matches in Europe when facing English opposition, drawing the other. However, there’s no question that in the Europa League Odds, the bookies have Arsenal as the firm favourites to progress, contrary to before the first leg when the Italian team were second favourites to win the competition outright behind Chelsea. Now Arsenal have taken that position.

2-0…
2-0 is a scoreline that is rather familiar to this fixture. On the three previous occasions the two sides have met, the home side has won 2-0. That would mean penalties tonight. However, there’s hope. Arsenal's 2-0 win in the first leg was the 17th occasion they have won the first leg of a major European knockout match by two or more goals - they have progressed on each of the previous 16 occasions. And there’s more. The last eight times Napoli have trailed heading into the second leg of a major European knockout match they have been eliminated. Last time they overturned a first leg defeat was back in the 1989 semi-final of this competition, when they beat Juventus 3-0. However, they had a certain player called Diego Maradona back in those days…

Emery’s Speciality…
Unai Emery last led a team in this competition when he was managing Sevilla. We all know his record there. It’s been a loooooong time since Arsenal lifted a European trophy. They’ve made three finals since that memorable 1994 win against Parma in Copenhagen. Granted, they will probably have to defeat Chelsea in Baku to secure a third continental triumph, but one thing you cannot argue with is the head coach’s experience at winning one off European finals. However, before we can think about the expense of flying to Azerbaijan, should Arsenal get past Napoli, there is the little matter of…

Valencia await…
3-1 up from the first leg at Villarreal, who are struggling in the league this season, it’s difficult to see past Valencia as the opponents in wait for the winner of Arsenal’s tie. And the record between Arsenal and the Spanish team isn’t great. Aside from the 1980 Cup Winners Cup Final, the Gunners have twice been eliminated from the Champions League after defeats in the Mestalla. However, one thing you’d have to say… as a destination for a semi-final trip, it should be a very nice mini-break. The last time Arsenal travelled to Spain for a European semi-final was back in 2006… against Villarreal. That trip was certainly a good one.

Selection surprises?
Petr Cech will obviously replace Bernd Leno, and it would be no big surprise if Alexandre Lacazette started upfront in place of Aubameyang. Emery played a back four on Monday against Watford, although that was a game his team really had to win. One imagines a more cautious approach this evening will be the order of the day. A back five with Sokratis, Koscielny and Monreal in between Maitland-Niles and Kolasinac looks most likely. In front of them, perhaps Xhaka, Guendouzi, Ramsey and Ozil looks feasible (although your writer would be happier with Torreira ahead of Guendouzi, but rotation is inevitable). One thing’s certain, Emery will pull a surprise somewhere, so this won’t be the eleven.

Conclusion
You’d have to say a home win is highly likely given the respective 2018-19 records of the two teams (although Arsenal did beat Milan away in last season’s competition, and that was in the midst of a number of poor away results), but the margin’s a bit trickier. Another 2-0 means extra time and possible penalties. If Arsenal did manage to score an away goal, can you see a 4-1 scoreline? One hopes that this Arsenal team are a little more resilient. They concede with alarming frequency, no doubt about that, but four? Let’s hope not. Statistical history suggests Arsenal progress – let’s hope that holds true.