I was having a nice little run on some of my football betting before coronavirus led to the postponement of Arsenal’s trip to Manchester City as Mikel Arteta was confirmed as infected, and the eventual postponement of every other match until God knows when. So I thought, let’s try Football Index. It’s bit like playing the stock market, except you are investing in the value of players instead of company shares. Fantasy football with a bit more at stake than bragging rights against your mates if you like. If that floats your boat, there is a football index referral code which can be used if you think you are an expert at assessing the rise and fall of player values. So football index continues, based on speculation about, for example, where Paul Pogba might be next season.

Nevertheless, I think it’s safe to say that player value changes are a poor substitute for the real thing, although currently the only action of note in Europe this weekend is a full programme of matches in Belorussia. BATE Borisov, anyone? No, how about a bit of Dinalmo Minsk? It brings to mind Paul Merson having a bet on two flies crawling up a wall. I think we’d all like to see the Premier League resume again to break the tedium and with this in mind, much as I am already fed up with online meetings, if there is one conference video call I’d like to attend as a fly-on-the-virtual-wall, it’s the one that Premier League clubs will hold this afternoon.

Originally, I thought that clubs would try and see if there was some way that the campaign could have been concluded in front of paying spectators, so as to not have to lose money on refunding those who had paid for these games in advance. However, it’s generally accepted that it’s going to be a long wait before that can happen, so it’s effectively no longer a consideration.

When UEFA announced the postponement of Euro2020 for 12 months, the European Leagues organization stated that their aim was for all domestic matches in the current campaigns to be completed by 30th June. That goalpost has been moved now though, although the reason for that date – it ties in with the end of a large number of player contracts – was understandable. As it stands, if agreement can be reached on how to conclude the campaign, there will simply be short-term contract extensions or the clubs will get by without using those players (or agents!) unwilling to accept them. One thing that does need saying though – any players who were deliberately winding down their contract to this summer with the plan to cash in as a free agent will be sorely disappointed now. With the effect on football clubs’ income that lies ahead, there simply isn’t going to be as much money floating around.

The big priority for Premier League clubs is ensuring they do not have to make compensation payments totaling £762 million to TV broadcasters (approx. £38m per club) if they fail to complete the season. So unless they are informed by either UEFA or the government that they have to abandon the season, they are going to find some way of playing it.

Obviously, this is going to be behind closed doors and the latest plan seems to be to re-start on June 1^st and wrap everything up (domestically) by 15^th July. Where would the games be played? In neutral venues in England (I pondered the possibility of this in a previous article) or even in a ‘safer’ country abroad in a World Cup style where all the teams decamp for a period of 6 weeks (presumably still in empty stadiums though)? The main thing is that the games are televised and the contractual obligation fulfilled. There would presumably be televising of the matches not picked out previously for broadcast, although who would show these and who would be able to watch them is one for debate.

An aspect that will make watching behind closed doors matches fascinating is that we will hear the players communicating. And it will also be interesting to see if they curtail the swearing, cognisant that it’s possible a TV microphone will pick up their language, without the noise of a crowd to drown them out.

One big problem of abandoning the season completely is the issue of who takes part in next season’s UEFA competitions (TV money) and Premier League (TV money). There would be legal challenges whatever resolutions was reached (existing standings are final ones or we simply remain as we were with the same teams competing in the same competitions next season). Frankly, it’s a hell of a mess, but the one thing that clubs do have is time on their side. No-one’s going to be playing any competitive football for the next two months, and the options for playing behind closed doors can be fully explored.

Any decision will have to be taken in unison with UEFA, in the event that they do try and get their own competitions completed. It’s been mooted that this could take place immediately after all domestic commitments have been completed, as opposed to in between as happens normally. UEFA seem prepared to extend the season to the end of August for this to happen, presumably with a quick turnaround before the 2020-21 season begins. If this season’s competitions are in fact completed, no-one will be wanting to fly anywhere on a frequent basis, so once more the idea of a World Cup style gathering of clubs will be the most likely solution. Some would travel knowing they will only be playing one match, such as Chelsea currently 3-0 down to Bayern after one leg has been played – and there is of course the issue of home advantage being sacrificed for those round of 16 matches yet to play their second leg.

Anyway, let’s see what the Premier League clubs can come up with between them. Three things are absolutely nailed on:
1) the existing plan to restart matches after 30^th April will be revised to a later date.
2) they will not be abandoning the season at this stage.
3) the clubs accept that matches will have to take place behind closed doors.

And my prediction is that, by hook or by crook, the season will be completed for one simple reason – there’s too much money at stake. Finance turns the wheels of football, no question about that. And one other sad prediction – many lower league clubs will go to the wall as a result of the pandemic, much like many other businesses.

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