With 50 points, Arsenal currently have one more now than they did at the same stage (after 21 games) in the Invincibles season

Continuing the at the current run rate of 50 from a potential 63 they would achieve a season end total of 90 points (same as in 03/04), dropping a further 11 points – one permutation being a loss and four draws to go along with 12 wins, although there are many others.

The last ten seasons’ title winners have had the following points totals - most recent season first. (Arsenal title wins are in bold)

89, 91, 95, 90, 83, 87, 80, 91, 79, 78

For the record the last ten second placed teams achieved the following tallies:

83, 83, 83, 79, 78, 80, 70, 73, 78, 77

You could draw a number of conclusions, but two things strike me from these figures. Firstly, that in more recent seasons, the top two teams are generally winning a greater number of points over the course of the campaign, and indeed the last three seasons have seen the runners up gain enough points to have won the title three of the four seasons between 1998 and 2001.

However, the other striking aspect is that even with the runners up getting a highly respectable points tally, there is still a comfortable gap between the they and the champions in the recent seasons.

So the idea that the title might go to the wire is something that doesn’t happen so frequently anymore. Could this suggest that two of Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea (who still have to play the top two at Stamford Bridge and can afford to seriously strengthen before February) might fall away? Recent history suggests so.

However, ultimately it’s in Arsenal’s own hands. They are still to entertain the following teams at home:
Birmingham
Newcastle
Blackburn
Aston Villa
Middlesbrough
Liverpool
Reading
Everton

On the road, they travel to:
Fulham
Manchester City
Birmingham
Wigan
Chelsea
Bolton
Manchester United
Derby
Sunderland

Logic suggests that points are most likely to be dropped at Eastlands, Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford, but in reality, some will go when it’s not expected, such is the way of football. Injuries, suspensions and other competitions will all play their part.

However, to the seasoned observer, it could be argued that so far this season, Arsenal’s luck has been in, in the way that United’s was during the previous campaign. Opposition chances not going in for starters. Late winners and comebacks to gain points that appeared lost. There seems to be a school of thought that the Gunners have a mean defence, although so often it doesn’t look like it. Certainly the Champions League is likely to be less forgiving to some of the errors seen so far this campaign. The Premier League certainly looks like the Gunners’ best hope of silverware, so it’s down to a question of whether they can continue with the momentum developed so far, and continue getting the odd slice of luck that champions tend to enjoy.

One thing’s certain, for all the accusations of lack of experience in comparison to their chief rivals, the Arsenal players certainly seem to believe in themselves and their ability to stay at the top of the pile. In 1997, Paul Merson famously referred to the ‘unbelievable belief’ Wenger instilled in his players. Merson left that summer, but the team he departed won the double. The statements of this crop of players demonstrate that the manager is still working the mental magic that creates winners.