Read on for the return of Alan Alger's brilliant column Three Things We Learned as he analyses Arsenal's recent performances ahead of Liverpool's FA Cup visit to the Emirates this weekend. 

Trust your eyes to put the data into context…

Anyone who has watched every minute of our matches this season will note the significant drop off from the levels we set in the early part of last season. Through that slight dip we had still maintained a fantastic league position and extended our European campaign. There were lots of reasons to be cheerful and indeed hopeful as the final whistle blew on our draw at Anfield which took us to the top of the table.

Since then, two London derby defeats have shifted the focus. The warning signs were there earlier in the season, as pointed out in some of my columns. No team is perfect at any part of a long season and all the detractors were doing, mostly in a calm evidence-led way, was slightly dampening expectation and pointing out where we might need to improve.

It’s therefore disappointing to come across some extremely well-followed influencer and content accounts in the Arsenal social media space which are wilfully presenting data out of context and telling fans everything is rosy when it clearly isn’t.

While we were a tad unfortunate against West Ham last week, it would be wrong to excuse the players an off night by stating that we had 30 shots, won on expected goals and had greater possession including loads of touches in the Hammers’ box.

A slightly deeper dive into the numbers from the game showed that 25 of our 30 chances were the kind of bread-and-butter situations that even West Ham’s third and fourth choice centre backs lapped up.

A few Gooners commented after the match that Ben White seemed reluctant to overlap in the latter stages of the game (I noticed it too towards the end as we were searching for a goal) only to be presented with stats that he did overlap quite a few times, what the stats will not tell you is that he had many more chances and indeed better opportunities to do so and was reluctant.

The stats guys then shouted those people down, only to find out that Ben White is indeed carrying a slight knock and hasn’t been able to overlap as frequently – and that came direct from the club!

I even stated myself that Martin Odegaard had a good game, but that he also wasted some very clear-cut opportunities to serve up the best chances of the night by misplacing easy passes. Once again the stats guys were out in force with his numbers from the game to somehow prove me wrong.

As someone who comes from the gambling industry where expected goals and more detailed stats were honed, I am of course respectful of them and use them to shape my view on games. But they must be used in context, it’s very dangerous when you don’t.

Another part of this is the revisionism of Oleksandr Zinchenko’s performances and output. I highlighted concerns about him in a few of these columns in 2023, but now we’re getting told that it’s fine he makes mistakes because he’s not a defender and he contributes elsewhere. Well, all I’m seeing is a deficit.

It’s like the ‘tomato in a fruit salad’ saying…

Knowledge is knowing Zinchenko isn’t really a defender, wisdom is not putting him anywhere near the line up in an important game.

And, NO… his absence is not the reason we lost at Fulham.

Arsenal IS for everyone…

My frustration after the West Ham and Fulham defeats saw me take a few of the Arsenal stats and analysis accounts to task. I was mainly focused on their misrepresentation of data but also the way that most of their articles contain this type of message “you may have seen the game and thought X, but my stats on my screen say you’re wrong and it’s actually Y”.

It’s condescending and totally at odds with how informed we are as a fanbase. At the extreme fringes we might still have a few fans who think getting stuck in and running around a bit is all you need (also known as the ‘Arry Redknapp blueprint), I don’t doubt that.

Overall regular and mostly match-going fans have seen enough of the game to know when a chance is a good chance or when a performance is a bad performance. You can use data on top of those thoughts or to shape them better, but overall if you’ve watched the game for a significant number of years you’ll have a good idea.

In my post I mentioned that looking at data thousands of miles away won’t give you the full picture, even if you’ve watched the game on TV (where it’s hard to see other parts of the pitch and positioning). This was taken as an attack on fans that don’t get to matches that much (or ever).

My view hasn’t ever changed, I’m fully supportive of everyone who wants to follow our club from wherever they are in the world. I just think stating you know better than someone who has been to a match and seen the full picture is a bit of a bold and disrespectful way to present your views.

Everyone who supports the club is equal, but I liken their stance to somehow meeting the family of a new partner but then vociferously expressing your views over dinner at their house and demanding control of the TV in the lounge. There are levels of respect to joining a new family and churning out numbers from the other side of the Atlantic and telling fans putting in the hard yards and money home and away that they’re seeing it wrong is rather a odd way to get accepted into it.

The reason I use the word family is that I firmly believe we are! One with wide-open arms. I’ve had immense joy over the years introducing people to Arsenal and taking new fans from all corners of the globe to their first match. Just in the last year or so I’ve hosted people from Malta, New Zealand, South Africa and Poland at matches. The joy as they see the Emirates and the pitch for the first time is heartwarming even on the umpteenth occasion you witness it. The more the merrier as far as I’m concerned, just don’t hog the remote or dinner conversation!

Liverpool in the cup and reasons to be cheerful…

I want to see a really strong line-up against Liverpool on Sunday including Aaron Ramsdale being given another chance to reclaim the number one spot at the club. Some might think that ship has sailed (including the man who ultimately makes that decision), but he deserves at least that game. Even if it’s a goodbye.

That would be really disappointing, and I suspect another dent to the mood around the camp which doesn’t look great at the moment.

Let’s respect the FA Cup and land a blow against a title rival before we face them for three points a month later.

The players are then off to Dubai for warm-weather training and a chance to recharge the batteries before they come back to restart a massive four-month period to the day - from Crystal Palace at home to welcoming Everton to the Emirates in the final gameweek - in which we can right the wrongs and challenge till the end.

Things need to change, but not drastically, for us to do so, The manager and his players have earned the right to show us that they can do it. In fact, there’s even one account on social media, not that I want to crab his act, who shared his views that this season’s Arsenal are better than last season’s – now there’s a thing!