Reasons to be Cheerful

My nearest and dearest would pretty quickly use the terms “grumpy old man” and/or a “bit of a nerd” if asked to describe me (remind me never to ask them to write my tinder profile…)

Despite these less than glowing references, I am very much in the “glass half full” camp when I reflect on the season just finished.

One of the few advantages of advancing years means I’ve been supporting the club for a long time.

Some of my earliest memories are of the BBC Final Score teleprinter (younger readers may need to google this term) delivering disappointment at about 445pm on Saturday afternoons in the 1974-75 season (younger readers may need to Google our performance in that season too).

This means the 2022-23 campaign was my 49th being a fan and for our club 49 seems an appropriate number at which to take stock of history.

The stat about heading the table for the longest period of time without winning the league was god-given for anyone who wants to portray the team as chokers.

Longest season on record

2022-23 was the longest season on record, with a period of 50-odd days with no game and therefore no change in the table. Add to this, our home game with City was rearranged from October to February due to the death of the Queen.

A one-off winter world cup and the once in 70-year event of the death of a monarch hardly suggest this was a normally scheduled season, so stats about periods heading the table for extended periods are pretty misleading.

Nevertheless my gut feeling on last season is that it was one of our best ever and that the future is bright - which is at odds with the normal outlook of a grumpy old man.

Being a self-confessed nerd means I rationalised this optimism by looking at some of the figures that haven’t been thrown around in the media, probably because they don’t suit the ‘bottled it’ narrative.

Debunking the 'Bottled It' narrative 

It’s often pointed out that City have raised the bar in terms of what is required to win the league, and there’s no doubt they have achieved some very impressive points totals in recent years.

The Abu Dhabi ‘windfall’ came their way in 2008. Naturally this took a while to have an impact before the first title was secured in 2012. Since then, the average number of points achieved by the champions (be it City or anyone else) has been 91. Prior to that, in the premiership era, it was 85. The average for second place has been 82 since 2012 and was 79 in the 20 years prior.

To emphasise this raising of the bar, 84 points would have won the premiership in 10 of the 20 seasons up to 2011-12, but since then only once (when Leicester got 81 in 2015-16). 

If you take the entirely logical view that to win the title you need one more point than the side in 2nd place, then you could say 83 points would reasonably be enough to win you the trophy; we got 84.

The elephant in that trophy room however is that to win the title you have to finish above City of course. They have averaged 85 points since 2012. 84 is far from shabby but unfortunately the recent data shows 92 is the new 84.

For most of us, the season to end all seasons was of course 2003-04, 90 points, 26 wins, 12 draws and no defeats (I make no apologies for emphasising that last bit).

W:26

Last season we also won 26 games.

Only twice ever (in 1930-31 and 1970-71) has the entry in our ‘W’ column exceeded that and then in 42-game seasons. Looking at the number of points gained as a percentage of the maximum available, not surprisingly the unbeaten season was the club’s best ever, followed by the double years of 2001-2002 and 1970-71. 1990-91 and 1930-31 also exceed last season in this respect, but no other season has. 2022-23 saw, by this measure, the sixth best league record in our history, better than eight title winning seasons and the highest points total we have ever achieved to only finish second. 

Even I’m not old enough to have lived through 1930-31, or remember 1970-71, so for me and any similarly old fart last season was the 4th most successful of the 49 in living memory. That’s why I’m feeling quite cheerful.

Of course we’d all rather walk off with the silverware however low the points total, and I look back on 1988-89 (76 points) and the double of 1998 (78 points) as proudly and as fondly as anyone but points totals in the high 70s just won’t cut it anymore.

There’s a great line in “Fever Pitch” (the film) where Paul (Colin Firth) moans when Smith scores the first goal in at Anfield in 1989 “Typical Arsenal, they need two, so they score one to get us all going” only for his friend Steve (Mark Strong) to chastise him sarcastically “You want them to score the second goal before they score the first?”

The same could almost be said of going from 56 points (in 2019-20 or even 69 in 2021-22) to say 92 (a total that would, much more often than not, win the title), ”you want to get to 90 plus in a season before we get to 80 plus ?”

Technically possible, but coming from where we were three years ago, highly unlikely. Steady and continuous improvement is the name of the game.

In 2021-22 we finished on 69 points, therefore improving by 15 last season, a year on year increase bettered only by Manchester United, Newcastle and Villa, though all three were coming off pretty low bases in 2021-22.

In the Premiership only Arsenal and Newcastle have increased their points total every season for the last three, and no prizes for guessing why the Geordies had a points lift-off.

The parallels between Newcastle and City, however, should not be lost on anyone though, City went from 55 points in 2008 (pre takeover) to 89 as champions in 2012.

Newcastle have gone from 45 in 2020-21 (again pre takeover) to 71 last year, an ominous rate of improvement. 96 may become the new 92.

The Bottom Line 

So what’s the point of all these nerdy stats, other than to attempt to justify my uncharacteristically optimistic mood ?

The bottom line is we came second to an outstanding side, who have been backed by almost unlimited wealth, and have been serial winners for several years.

City secured the treble, only the second time the feat has been achieved by an English club. Nevertheless we should be more than pleased at the ongoing improvement year on year. There is little doubt we are heading in the right direction.

I’ve not mentioned it above, largely because it’s not quantifiable and therefore doesn’t suit my nerdy nature.

However, it can’t be overlooked that the re-established connection between the team and the fans has been wonderful and the atmosphere greatly improved.

Contrast the atmosphere at the end of the Bournemouth match with the chants of “you’re not fit to wear the shirt” heard only a few years previously.

To the strangers hugged at the end of home games with Manchester United and Bournemouth, I am deeply deeply sorry!

Arteta Knows

I recall reading when Arteta was interviewed for the manager’s job in late 2019 that he said he had a three and five year plan to take us back to where we want to be, by which I hope he means champions.

My guess is we have exceeded that plan at the three year mark but the acid test, and probably the hardest part to achieve, is over the next two years, but as Arteta himself said, “let’s enjoy the journey”.

While we do, we should be confident that in order to complete that journey we have someone in charge who knows exactly what we need.