If you’d have offered me a 1-0 result after 30 minutes, I’d have bitten your hand off. I was mightily relieved Arsenal even made half-time only one down. There’s no doubt that fortune favoured the visitors to Old Trafford. Arsenal fashioned about two, maybe three, half decent attempts in 90 minutes and deserved nothing more from this game than they got – in fact far less.

One aspect of European football they got right was hanging onto the ball for periods of time to relieve pressure. However, there are two other sides to success on the continent. One is defensive organisation, the other is the ability to take chances in matches where not many come your way. One out of three isn’t bad, just probably not good enough. Luck came into it and that’s a key added ingredient in most successful Cup campaigns at some point.

Frankly, I don’t think Arsenal will make the trip to Rome in spite of home advantage in the second leg. But even if they did, they will meet either a Barcelona side all too well equipped to rip this Arsenal defence to shreds or a Chelsea side with Didier Drogba. At least the former will be a watchable game of football. The latter means it probably won’t be worth even travelling to Italy as Arsenal are incapable of beating any Chelsea line-up with Didier Drogba. They haven’t got a single defender with the requisite quality to contain him.

United will score next week. Will Arsenal score three? They might. But United are unquestioned favourites because, despite a good record at home, Arsenal cannot be this lucky again with this backline. I wrote after the Fenerbahce game that I didn’t think Arsenal had the defence to win this tournament. And that was before injuries to Gallas and Clichy! They’ve done well to get to the last four, but in fairness, it looks like they may have had an easier passage than the other semi-finalists to make it to the last four.

But at Old Trafford, their bluff was called. It was only due to giant performances from Almunia and young Keiran Gibbs that there is still an iota of hope for the second leg. I was actually open-minded at the beginning of the tie. I wanted to believe this was a chance for Wenger’s young talents to shine. After six minutes I looked at the clock and wished it read 90. The hope didn’t last long, and United, even if they would be right to feel in the box seat, will also feel disappointed the tie isn’t done and dusted.

Adebayor had a typical game. Even when he pops up and scores, he does nothing for the rest of the match. At Old Trafford he had his usual performance, with a shot which went over that would have had us purring if it had gone in. Andrey Arshavin is another player who disappears for long periods of the game – Arsenal can’t afford to play two of those, so for that reason I would be very surprised if Adebayor was still at the club after the summer. The performance at Old Trafford indicates he is a player who has lost his heart and no longer cares enough to put in the extra effort that produced 30 goals last season. Granted, he was isolated, but in individual challenges he was far from strong. It was a Champions League semi-final and it really didn’t look as if he was trying. He’ll probably get the winning goal next Tuesday night…

United got into Arsenal by doing exactly the thing that too many of Arsene Wenger’s players failed to do. They harried and hassled them, forcing loss of possession. Some of the visiting team did get in and try and unsettle United, but not everyone. What Diaby was doing on the field bemuses me. What position he thought he was supposed to be playing would intrigue me. He started the match as the left sided player of the attacking midfield three ahead of Nasri and Song, but went walkabout soon enough. Granted John O’Shea scored from a set piece, but it was ironic the man who in theory was up against Diaby should have got on the scoresheet. The Frenchman is a player with an element of raw talent, but does not have the mental discipline to be a top class footballer. To think, this was the man Arsene Wenger penciled in as the replacement for the Gilberto/Flamini role. If Wenger starts him next Tuesday, the Gunners are as good as out. The task is hard enough as it is without players who just wonder about aimlessly with minimal effect.

It was a huge contrast with Chelsea’s performance in the Nou Camp. The visitors there offered nothing in the way of entertainment, or indeed adventure, but what they did was protect their goal by ensuring there was a thicket of bodies in and around their box that Barcelona found difficult to break through. With Arsenal obsessed with playing the ball out of defence, there was no reason they could not have stuffed a similar number of bodies in their own third, but so often in the first half hour, they were stretched and vulnerable. It was tortuous to watch.

Even from a corner, John O’Shea enjoyed the freedom of Manchester and there was little even Almunia could do to stop his shot. Wenger has never purchased a top notch defender (Campbell was a free transfer that fell in his lap, and Gallas only arrived due to David Dein wanting to put one over on Chelsea in the Cole deal) and since Campbell’s departure Arsenal have never looked authoritative at the back, despite the stats indicating a solid defence. Before Arsenal win another trophy, somehow, a defensive organiser with presence needs to be brought to the club. As long as Arsene Wenger is in charge, that is unlikely to happen. We may be richly entertained, but the team will always fail when the final hurdle is in sight.

So it boils down to this. Can Arsenal win 3-1 next Tuesday? United scoring is a given. If they score two, it’s game over. So the Gunners have to restrict them to one and breach them three times. It can be done. But I won’t be booking any flights to Rome on the likelihood.

Although I’d like to sign off with a ‘Keep the faith’, the reality is ‘Give me a reason to believe’…