Ed’s note – two financial experts are going head to head. And it doesn’t make for pretty viewing. This was a response to this, and the original author is back for more…
1. Whilst the new stadium debt service is £13m pa there is also a £5m pa principal repayment. Whilst this is a balance sheet item it needs to be paid from cash earned.
2. Prepayments - this is not all about Nike and Emirates. You need to consider the Delaware contract as well as the premium seat and boxes that were sold on multi year basis and money received upfront.
3. Agreed that the Nike deal is up for renewal in 2011 (Nike have a three year option to extend but I do not know on what terms) when the Emirates £9m payments end... Emirates then goes to about £3m pa for the six years after BUT the Emirates shirt deal is an 8 year deal - runs until end of 2013/14 season. This means there are THREE seasons with NO money for the shirt sponsor when this should be bringing in about £15m pa. The cash shortage from these deals compounds as time goes on unless they are renegotiated.
4. The Usmanov report was an internally generated report and NOT a Lazards report.
5. The fixed assets on the balance sheet are healthy but you can not invest in the squad (transfers and wages) with fixed assets. These assets generate the cash that is needed.
6. How much of the 30/11/08 balance sheet cash is earmarked for future capital expenditure on Highbury Square? I estimate £25-30m
7. Do you really believe the £179m of property development stock is worth that in the current market?
8. On what basis does the author believe the April 2010 property debt maturity date is "only a negligible chance of being a problem at this time"? It is a massive issue and if the banks do extend it will be hugely expensive!
9. There are two more years before the Nike deal expires. This is a lot of cash not coming in. The problem is in the near term and not the medium term as the author suggests.
10. The £70m debt facilities are NOT for transfers. There is a working cap / overdraft facility of about £35m and also a £35m guarantee facility that allows AFC to pay for players in installments and this facility allows the club to get the bank to provide letters of credit to guarantee the seller that the future installments will be made.