When Arsenal’s final pre-season friendly away to Valencia was announced, I was sorely tempted to make the trip, if only because the Mestalla is a stadium I love and it’s unlikely I’ll get the chance to see a match there again before they up sticks and move to their new home. However, economic reality plays a part in decisions about travelling to watch the Gunners these days, although I was well up for Timisoara if Wenger’s team had drawn the Romanian side in their Euro qualifier, as I’ve heard it’s a beautiful part of the country and in August the weather in central eastern Europe is invariably fantastic.

You couldn’t say the same about the east coast of Spain last night. The torrential downpour in the early minutes of the game had several thousand scurrying for the cover of the concourse. Still, with tickets from only 10 euros apiece, once the rain ceased, the stadium looked relatively full, a trick only achieved by Arsenal at last weekend’s Emirates Cup tournament thanks to the thousands of tickets given away. More significantly, with Tomas Vermaelen injured, there were no new faces in the Arsenal squad on duty. And in truth, they played much like last season. The defence looks as if, when the serious questions are asked, the answers won’t make for comfortable viewing. They play a high line, but are too often caught out, and don’t have the pace to recover. The offside rule came to their rescue a few times against Valencia but not always. Up front, opportunities were fashioned but the finishing lacked the clinical touch. Pre-season is pre-season and the results don’t matter, but the 4-3-3 system Wenger is trying to establish does not look ready for the real thing.

It’s modelled on Barcelona’s formation, with the midfield three anchored by a holding player. Barcelona have Yaya Toure as first choice there. Arsenal use Alex Song. On the right side of the attack, Wenger opts for Nicklas Bendtner or Theo Walcott. Lionel Messi is of the same generation, but that’s about where the comparison ends. The manager has put a lot of trust in a group of largely young players who have yet to prove they can cut the mustard.

It’s a huge gamble and one a good number of the regular supporters have decided to reject going by how far down the season ticket waiting list the club have gone to try and replace those who have opted out. There is discontent at the sums they are being asked to pay to watch the team when there is no evidence that the club are spending any more than the money they receive from selling players. And Arsenal’s financial position heavily suggests the income from the sales to Manchester City will only be used if Celtic are eliminated in the qualifying tie that awaits later this month. Given that the second leg is played on 26th August, let’s just hope that qualification is a formality before the game kicks off, as it doesn’t leave a great deal of time to do the necessary business.

The directors are allowing the club to walk a financial tightrope in the hope that Champions League qualification comes off. Celtic will play out of their skins to overcome an English side, so the tie is a tough one. Arsenal would be best served by treating the first leg as a one-off game and trying to get a result in Glasgow. If the opposition have a sniff of a chance, they will be difficult to defeat in the second leg, despite their questionable away record in the competition.

It’s interesting, and slightly worrying, to hear the manager talk of a top six rather than a top four in England. It sounds to me like he’s preparing for life a little further adrift of the title race than previously. The club have unquestionably suffered with the stadium move. The final season at Highbury saw them finish fourth, and since then, two further fourths and a third place have followed. It’s proved good enough to keep the team in the money-spinning Champions League, but in comparison to the previous eight campaigns, it’s evidence of decline. The expected £100 million profit from Highbury Square was supposed to be the pot of gold at the end of the new stadium move rainbow, but it isn’t going to happen and now Arsenal must try once again to beat the odds. The only difference now is that beating the odds means finishing in fourth place whereas before it meant winning the title.

The game has changed. But Arsenal don’t necessarily need a billionaire investor. They just need to speculate a little to accumulate. Winning trophies brings greater profits. So commit £25 million to bring in a couple of much needed players and pay their wages instead of trying to win the annual ‘Good Housekeeping’ award for austerity in sport. That £25 million could make the difference between silverware and another trophy-less season and even more problems shifting seats next summer.

Where does the money come from? Well Arsenal have some pretty rich directors. How about some soft loans? Twelve months ago penny pinching meant they fell either £500,000 or £2 million short of buying Xabi Alonso, depending on whose figures you believe. It was only because Andrey Arshavin forced the deal to move to north London that the club got him, although they were still trying to haggle right up to the 4pm deadline back at the beginning of February. The club have the second biggest home stadium in England and they act like a small time concern. Yet they are happy to charge the highest prices in the Premier League to watch a side that tries to get by on a wing and a prayer.

How long will Cesc Fabregas put up with the mediocrity that surrounds him? If Arsenal don’t win either the title or the Champions League this season, it is difficult to see him tolerating it anymore. So chances are you may be enjoying the last season of Cesc. Arsenal’s run of games at the beginning of the season are Everton (away), Celtic (away), Pompey (home), Celtic (home), Manchester United (away) and Manchester City (away). This group of players are capable of getting results in these games. But you wouldn’t bet on it. Certainly not if Wenger persists with this 4-3-3 system that he doesn’t have the personnel for. It leaves the team way too vulnerable at the back, as Valencia all too often demonstrated. It can look great for ten minutes of a match when Arsenal dominate, but if the goals don’t come in these spells, then trouble awaits.

Nicklas Bendtner is not a right winger. He is a target man. He plays with a shorter attacking partner in a 4-4-2. So if you are going to play him, you pair him up front with one of Van Persie, Arshavin or Eduardo. You partner Cesc and Song together and hope that Song has a decent game and on the flanks there are enough options to get a decent pair of attacking players (with Walcott on the bench – for God’s sake don’t start him). You play Djourou and Gallas at the back with the first choice full backs and hope to get away with it. This team is vulnerable when the opposition have the ball, but frankly the personnel to stop the opposition playing does not exist at the club. And that is where it all goes pear-shaped. Arsenal do not have enough competent defensive players at the back and in the middle. The manager was responsible for bringing such a player to the club in 1996. He left in 2005. Arsenal have won f*** all since as he has never been replaced. At some stage during the match, the opposition will enjoy possession of the football. How the team play then is as vital as how they play when they have the ball. It is a facet of the game Arsene Wenger will have to address sometime if Arsenal are ever going to challenge again under his leadership.

To finish, a blatant plug. Kevin McCarra’s done me a good turn in the past and I have time for Matt Scott. So for those reasons I am happy to plug the Guardian’s football guide that comes with the paper on Monday morning. Here’s a pdf of one of the Arsenal pages. And it’s a decent paper generally. If I had the time to read the G2 section, I’d buy it myself! Tempus fugit and all that…