"We want to win, but we want to protect our home games against Bolton and Everton as well, to keep the momentum going.” I’m sure Arsene Wenger wants to win the FA Cup, but he isn’t aiming to. And this approach has contributed towards the fact that Arsenal have not landed a trophy for an extended period. By handicapping the club’s chances, the manager ensures that – in reality – Arsenal only seriously attempt to win two of the four competitions they are able to. And he loses a certain amount of goodwill with each successive cup exit.

Let me put my cards on the table here. April 2009. First Arsenal visit to the rebuilt Wembley Stadium. FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea. The fact that the final itself would have taken place three days after the Champions League final meant that winning that semi would have provided absolutely no handicap to the team’s chances of success in Europe or indeed qualifying for it the subsequent season. Andrey Arshavin started the game on the bench with Adebayor, Van Persie and Theo Walcott as the forward players. This decision was a total disgrace and an insult to the supporters. Additionally, Abou Diaby and Denilson were both preferred to the in-form Alex Song.

Wenger attempted to justify Arshavin’s non-selection at the now notorious shareholders’ Q&A by stating he wanted to give the players who could face Manchester United the confidence that they could beat a big side without Arshavin by accounting for Chelsea. Hmmm. Interesting plan. With about as much substance as a house of cards. Arsenal lost to Chelsea without Arshavin (for the first 75 minutes) and it turned out to be great preparation –they lost twice to United without the Russian. Myles Palmer on ANR has hypothesized that the reason for not playing Arshavin was pure stubbornness by a manager trying to make a point to the new dynamic in the boardroom. I run this club – not you, and I’ll do it my way, even if it involves more risk of failure, just to show I was right all along. I hope to God that isn’t true, but I have wondered. Arshavin scored four goals in his next start at Anfield.

Wenger talks about the importance of momentum, but doesn’t seem to understand it applies to every game, not just those in his chosen competitions. 2004 – weakened team put out in the FA Cup semi-final. Defeat followed by a Champions League quarter final exit only days later. 2008 – Disgraceful and humiliating exits with uncommitted mix and match teams in both domestic competitions. A slump in form and confidence ensued and whaddya know – there goes the Premier League. 2009 – See the second and third paras above, but add in the 4-1 home defeat to Chelsea after the European exit. These are the examples that stick in the memory, although I am sure there are others.

Defeat – in any competition – has psychological repercussions and should be avoided at all costs. In other words, the manager should play his strongest line-up and attempt to land the FA Cup. Players don’t get tired when they are winning matches. The ones I really felt for in February 2008 were the 9,000 who had traveled to Old Trafford to support the team, and then be faced with the half-baked selection and subsequent performance that followed. Only Jens Lehmann (then, remember, the second choice) and Eduardo turned up.

It’s a dangerous game fielding weakened teams. Manchester United got away with it in the League Cup last season, but not in their own FA Cup semi against Everton. Villa chose to exit the UEFA Cup in 2009 and a slump in their own league form allowed Arsenal to leapfrog them into fourth place.

Just for a slightly different perspective, I briefly debated this with a fellow fan yesterday and their take on the situation was - I wouldn't hold it against Arsene Wenger putting out a weakened team. What I do hold against him is the fact we have a weakened squad meaning that the weakened team will be weaker than it should. Which is really not much in the way of mitigation, but I thought I’d mention it.

Over 5,000 will go to Upton Park tomorrow. Even if the team get through (as is possible given the Hammers seem equally keen to exit the competition for reasons of their own) there will come a time when the policy of handicapping the side bears its inevitable rotten fruit. Still, if the Gunners do lose tomorrow, there is a definite upside… the trip home for crestfallen Gooners won’t be a long one.

I hope to God I am wrong and Arsenal go on to land the trophy this year. It’s the least the supporters deserve. But somehow, I just can’t see it, even if they do wipe the floor with West Ham tomorrow.