On the rare occasions I watch the aforementioned TV programme, I am usually puzzled by the strange approach of the participants. The optimal strategy would seem to be to lose the weakest players in the early stages (so as to maximise the size of the pot) and then lose the strongest players in the later stages (so as to maximise the chance of winning it). This broadly holds true except that the participants’ assessment of who the weakest players are seems to be inordinately influenced by their performance in the last round, rather than over the contest as a whole.

The same holds true, I think, for fans’ assessment of Arsenal players and the manager. Career defining verdicts are happily handed out based on a player’s performance in the latest match – both good and bad. This effect is amplified by the fact that the optimists (often the “AKB”s) are the ones making the triumphal postings after a famous win, while the pessimists (often the “Wenger Out”s) are the ones making angry and/or despondent postings after a bad defeat.

The loss against Man Utd was bad. Worse for me in that I had taken my son – this season the poor lad has seen the Portsmouth, Chelsea, Everton and Man Utd games - we have won the other 15 or so of course which he didn’t see...

But was it that bad? The stats suggest that possession was level and Arsenal actually had more shots than MU. But I acknowledge, qualitatively, it was poor. I also acknowledge that the result had a serious adverse impact on our title challenge which probably exacerbated the impact of the defeat in peoples’ minds.

But let’s get back to thinking long term and reviewing the performances of some of the players who have been particularly castigated.

Almunia – Agree he is not the best but I recall that his saves to shots ratio was just about the best in the division a season or two ago. We could do better, but Manuel is having a poor run of form and he is not as bad as everyone is saying. Perhaps his personal issues earlier in the season have had a bigger impact than we realise? My sense is that Szczesny will be the No. 1 in a season or two – is it really worth breaking the bank now for a short term acquisition?

Sagna – The guy is playing with a damaged shoulder (hence not taking throw-ins in some recent games) – but, with Eboue having been away, there was no choice. So, as with Arshavin, playing through injury for the team. Clearly, he is not going to be 100%.

Clichy – Two years ago we were all raving about how he was better than Cashley. I think he is short on confidence but remember that he has just come back from a serious long-term injury! Gibbs, who would otherwise really be challenging him, is, of course, injured himself.

Denilson – Yes, he is playing poorly – seriously at fault for all three goals - and has gone backwards since last season (when I believe he spent more minutes on the pitch than any other player!). Yet he started the season well but was then afflicted by a long-term injury – and has only recently come back.

Song – Just off the plane from Africa. 30C to 0C and a different set of team-mates. Give the guy a break.

Nasri – A poor game. But also just back from injury, and prior to that had a broken leg!

Rosicky – Out for 18 months and then subsequent niggles. Not yet close to his best – unsurprisingly.

What lessons can we draw? Not only have we had an unprecedented number of players out injured all season (typically between 8 and 11 first team squad players at any one time per Arsenal.com’s injury section), but that players do not come straight back and perform at the top of their game immediately following injury. But didn’t we know that?

What else? We are doing significantly better in the league this season than last – again running with a crippling injury list (last season was bad – but this is far worse). People are complaining about a lack of striker. It is hard when your three experienced strikers for the central role in a 4-3-3 (van Persie, Bendtner and Eduardo) are all injured at the same time! This is unprecedented – makes no sense to spend £20m on someone who is not significantly better than we have just to cover a few weeks!

I still believe the future is very bright – and will continue to do so even if we get stuffed at Chelsea. Yes, Wenger is not perfect, but, to be honest, I would rather that he did not win trophies if the alternative – which I believe – is to end up in a financial mess like Liverpool (who have not won trophies either despite spending a fortune).

So, to conclude, stop judging on short-term performances and look at the big picture. And, finally, if Bendtner and Diaby play against Chelsea but have poor games, please remember that they are just coming back from injury…