I was watching the Bolton v Man Utd game a few minutes ago. In the 39th minute, a Bolton defender slotting the ball home for United meant I would endure no more torture and start the cathartic process of writing up this afternoon’s Arsenal game.

In this of all seasons, it is too early to say that the Gunners’ title hopes have ended. However, some felt that way after the concession of Birmingham’s late equalizer. That’s understandable. It’s possible that 86 points might be enough to finish top of the pile, although with Chelsea scoring like it’s going out of fashion and Bolton scoring for the other team, it sure doesn’t feel like it. However, what Arsenal have to do is at least ask the question by winning their remaining matches and seeing if it proves an adequate total. To give you a guideline last season’s champions notched 90 points with Liverpool in second on 86. In previous years, the title has been won with 87, 89, 91, 95 and 92. The prognosis is bleak.

Arsene Wenger did not start with the strongest side he could. The one that begins against Barcelona will be his real first choice eleven, injuries allowing. Whether a relatively lacklustre Arsenal improved during the last quarter of the game was as a result of Nasri and Arshavin’s entrance or fatigue in the opposition is difficult to say. The answer is probably a mix of the two. However, it was Nasri and Arshavin who were guilty of not killing the game when gilt edged opportunities arose with the visitors 1-0 up.

The refereeing had many scratching their heads, and pre-match fears that Howard Webb might not do the Gunners many favours did look justified with the way yellow cards were awarded for the first hour of the game. Then, there was Diaby’s disallowed goal. Presumably, Webb felt that Fabregas’ challenge for the ball was reckless, and yet he’d allowed similar tackles earlier in the game.

Fortune did at one point look to favour Arsenal when Birmingham hit the post and then somehow the sitter of a rebound was knocked over the bar. And when Samir Nasri finally broke through with a fine individual goal, the word relief doesn’t come close to describing the feelings of watching Gooners. Wenger’s team had their opponents on the rack, but failed to land the killer blow. Sound familiar? Maybe they scored too early. Birmingham had a whole ten minutes to equalize.

Of course, by the time they levelled, the game should have been dead, but Arsenal simply lacked the quality to take the three points. Aside from their failure to score a second, Almunia’s attempt to save the equalizer did not convince. There may have been a case for offside, but the goal should have been a consolation by that time.

In 2008 when Arsenal suffered a similar fate at St Andrews, this observer had the feeling that the team probably didn’t have what it took – in terms of character – to see the job through. They never really bounced back. In 2010, I don’t think they will fall away as badly, and the visit of Barcelona could prove a welcome distraction, although if the manager fields a significantly weakened team against Wolves next weekend, it could all backfire.

Asking Arsenal to win their last thirteen league matches was always going to be a big ask. Now they must focus on doing what they can to take 37 points from 39. However, one thing that the players must realize pretty soon is that games are not won when the scoreline is 1-0, and should play like it accordingly. Arsenal let a pretty average Birmingham side back in. The match lacked the emotional turmoil of the 2008 fixture, and hopefully the dressing room is a more united one now.

It’s a big blow to the chances of a league title, but not a terminal one. United and Chelsea have both dropped unexpected points. Certainly one of them will drop entirely predictable points when they play each other. As I write, there are 62 minutes gone in the Bolton v Man Utd game. United lead by a goal. If they win the game they will lead Arsenal by four points. Chelsea are already three ahead. It’s all about momentum. Have Arsenal lost theirs? Could it be another what if season? Having written the team off twice, I am not going to conclusively say that it’s over for another year, but my instincts suggest that they will finish in third place once again this season, exiting the Champions League a round earlier than in 2009. And the reasons will be lack of know how in the starting eleven and falling short in the goalkeeping position.

Arsene Wenger has done very well to keep the team’s hopes alive. His work has not finished yet. I do hope he proves the doubters wrong, but the margins between success and failure can at times be wafer thin. Little details can make all the difference. Little details can cost points. One cannot question the team’s mental toughness after recent events. But their focus is another matter. Against Birmingham, they failed to consolidate a winning position. Maybe Bolton will grab an equalizer in the 16 minutes that remain of their game. Maybe Arsenal will buy some experience in the summer – players who know what it takes to win things.

The opera ain’t over till the fat lady sings, but I swear I heard her warming up in the Midlands this afternoon.