Four games gone. A season's worth of injuries already, 10 points on the board and we've negotiated Blackburn and Bolton already. We've also played away to Liverpool, who aren't that bad either.

Great start? Well, yes. But as an Arsenal fan it's difficult to feel properly optimistic. I told someone today that I will only be confident of our ability to win the league when we're six points clear of Chelsea with two games to go and a superior goal difference. And maybe not even then.

There's just something about this team that strikes fear into me. I am confident that we can take on anyone, give anyone a real game and dominate against any side, with the probable exception of Barcelona. And now probably Hercules too (if you haven't already witnessed their 2-0 win over Barca, you should. It's wonderfully romantic). But all it takes for us to undo a superb performance and 1-0 lead against Chelsea with five minutes to go, would be Manuel Almunia deciding it's time to take a stroll out near the by-line, or Gael Clichy wondering what happens if he leaves the defending to Andrey Arshavin.

So yes, I've been checked by years of disappointment and near misses. No matter how well we play, how wonderful the football is, I'm constantly wary of someone called Fabianski or Almunia and all the things they can do. Someone should really check out whether either is secretly on the T****nham payroll.

But there is also something that tells me to keep the faith. For all their errors, surely this team must get to the top eventually? And it isn't as if the opposition is as good as it has been in recent years. Chelsea may look good on paper, and up against Wigan, but they are an ageing side who haven't really improved the squad. The reliable Ballack has been replaced by the talented but untested Ramires. Brazilians are notoriously poor at adapting to English football, and tend to perform well in this country when they have another Brazilian at the club. And Yossi Benayoun may be an excellent player, but so was Joe Cole.

And Manchester United are also beginning to age. Rooney aside, they lack real star quality, and with little creativity in midfield aside from the contributions of two 37 year olds, they are not going to be much better than last year either.

And Arsenal are better than last year. The frustrating Gallas, brilliant when he wants to be, but also the infuriating conceder of many a penalty, has left, as have Mickael 'which position am I playing in again?' Silvestre, and Sol 'who said anything about a paycheque?' Campbell. Squillaci is a reliable centre-back, decisive and positionally aware, whilst Kolscieny is a typical Wenger signing. Technically gifted, a good passer, composed, intelligent, and inexperienced. They won't win the Bobby Moore award for defensive excellence, but they won't win Titus Bramble's counterpart award either. And after years of errors, I'll take reliability over star quality at the back for once.

Up front, we've added Marouane Chamakh, which will be our most crucial acquisition. Without Bendtner and Van Persie last season, we lacked someone who could hold the ball in the centre-forward position, and as a result, we found it hard to move higher up the pitch and retain possession at times, particularly against Manchester United and Chelsea. Chamakh will give us a crucial element we missed last season, which we'll need for the 75% of the season when Van Persie is injured. Ok, fine, that was harsh. 70% of the time.

With a bit of luck with injuries (I know, I know, we might also find a cure for Sir Alex Fergusonitis), we should be stronger this year than last, even if we still have a goalkeeper who lets more past him than the UK Border police.

So, yes, in conclusion, I've managed to convince myself against all odds and logical probabilities, that we will win the league this year. Why? Because I'm a hopelessly optimistic Gooner, permanently believing that this will be our year. But there is something genuinely different this year, and it's not even something that Arsenal have done. Last year Spurs finished fourth. As pessimistic as you may be, surely that is a sign. If Tottenham can play in the Champions League, then we can definitely win the Premiership.