Should there be any shade of doubt regarding the Gooner’s ability to bring you the developments of tomorrow’s football world before they even occur then banish them now. As predicted by my article in the September 2009 issue of the Gooner, ‘Ship Ahoy!: Watching the Arsenal Pirate Style’, the attempts of Sky and the Premier League to drive out of business the Pirate Bars showing live coverage of 3PM Premiership games could well have large implications for the way sporting television rights are sold across the EU. Just to recap the facts behind the case, Portsmouth based publican Karen Murphy was prosecuted and fined £8000 back in 2008 for showing games on Greek Satellite TV network Nova Sports. However the publican has ever since rightly pointed out that the restriction of her choice of provider to Sky with its hefty charges is an unreasonable restraint of trade. Also on a far more valid legal point, as Nova Sports is a Greek satellite provider, to restrict the publican’s right to show Nova Sports is surely contravening the central principle of the single market which exists in EU Law of free competition of goods and services between its 27 member states.

Any seasoned Murdoch watchers could well be chuckling to themselves on several counts regarding the ironies which flow from this little episode. In the pre-Premiership days of Sky it largely kept itself afloat by smashing national broadcasting boundaries wide open with the wall to wall American imports on Sky One. As it was beamed in from the Astra Satellite, itself owned by a Luxembourg consortium, it was not subject to the IBA’s rules which placed obligations on domestic broadcasters to show a high percentage of UK content to safeguard the nation’s culture from the ‘Coca-Colonisation’ of the American media giants. As everyone knows the loss making Sky of the late 80s and early 90s was given a massive shot in the arm when it acquired the exclusive rights to the Premiership back in 1992. Had its chances of survival solely been down to the popularity of episodes of Beverly Hills 90210, Melrose Place and WWF Wrestling, Sky may well have gone the way of Live TV or OnDigital and died an early death. Now the combination of Luxembourg (where Murphy’s case is now being heard), modern technology’s obliteration of National broadcasting boundaries and the issue of exclusive rights to show Premiership football could cause a major headache for the corporation nearly two decades on.

Also, in the opinion of the European Court of Justice’s Advocate General, Karen Murphy may well have EU Law on her side. Though the opinion of the ECJ’s Advocate General is advisory with regard to a new point of law raised at Luxembourg and not one that is legally binding, it is a highly influential opinion on guiding the deciding judges. Also, in the majority of cases heard before the ECJ it is more often than not followed by the deciding judges. The Premier League however, via its spokesperson Dan Johnson, has put its side of the argument, stating that it strongly believes in ‘competition on a territory by territory’ basis. This is a strangely archaic attitude to the realities of a European single market, which is in stark contrast to most of its member clubs’ transfer policies (Arsenal being a particular example). In the post-Bosman era, Premiership sides have often sought out Europe’s hottest talent and poached them away from what were once major Euro Super clubs, such as Ajax, FC Porto and Marseille who have produced much talent over the last 15 years but have now become mere feeder clubs to the major English, Italian and Spanish sides due to the less lucrative national market they reside in.

The unspeakable truth behind the opposition of the Premier League to Murphy’s Law is that their exploiting of national broadcasting boundaries has for many years seen them reap disproportionately high sums from TV deals. Sky’s last TV deal was worth £1.8 Billion to the Premier League, with Sky reaping £3 Billion was a result in subscriptions. The Premiership is also a major draw in most EU countries, allowing European Satellite stations such as Nova and Setanta to fill up empty spaces on their schedules, plus bringing increased advertising revenue with a new found audience in the UK watching games not available domestically. Any argument that the UK consumer, who watches these ‘pirate’ broadcasts within the bars and pubs that show them, is depriving the EPL of revenue in the same way video or music piracy does with their respective industries would be easily ridiculed if it was ever raised. The football fan who watches his side in the Pirate Bar rather than paying £60 to watch at the stadium or pay for Sky is fuelling the coffers of the overseas broadcaster, who in turn pay the Premiership for their rights within their domestic territory to do so. This revenue does in a roundabout way find its way back into the football industry, so how will ‘Murphy’s Law’ cause this house of cards to come crashing down?

First off, it is unthinkable that should the UK consumer be able to take up the cheaper option of a subscription with an overseas provider like Nova or Setanta, they would pass up the opportunity to do so. Sky therefore will be less willing to pay anything near the £1.8 Billion which they handed over for the last deal without acquiring some sort of exclusive Pan-European deal. Also, anyone who wants to take up a Pan-European deal for exclusive rights to the Premiership will not want to be restricted by being disallowed the right to show 3PM Saturday Premiership games (still the vast majority of Premiership matches), seeing that the ability to do so is now the expected norm with the EPL’s viewers throughout the rest of the European Union. The Premiership however will want to safeguard attendances and the ability to charge £50-60 for a seat to see something that only a privileged 50-60,000 will get to see. When Arsenal moved to Ashburton Grove in 2006, Premiership matches going on general sale happened about once or twice a season. Now those who are on Arsenal’s General Sale mailing list are receiving e-mails from the Arsenal box office notifying them of tickets available for Everton, who in previous years have always been a big attendance draw. However, with a nation on the edge of a double-dip recession a different set of rules apply. And in the years to come, should most of the viewing public be able to watch this encounter from the comfort of their living room or their local, Arsenal may have difficulty even achieving a 40,000 attendance for this fixture at their current prices.

Also there are repercussions outside of the top tier of English football. If Barry Hearn and Leyton Orient are worried about West Ham or Spurs turning up on their doorstep, think of how unrestricted access to 3PM Premiership matches will hit their attendances. Even clubs like Yeovil or Plymouth Argyle with no big clubs in close proximity will take a hit if the local pub can show Arsenal, Chelsea or United at 3PM without any legal sanctions or restrictions. However, my guess is that should this situation occur it’s possible that either the Premiership will move its programme to Sunday afternoons, or the Football League will kick off at 1.30PM with the Premiership in turn moving to 4PM on Saturday afternoons to avoid such a clash. If this situation did come to pass, then the lower league sides will be barely affected as those who support bigger sides will be able to watch a live lower league game whilst viewing their Premiership sides post-match in pubs around the ground. Lower division sides may even be better off, seeing that as it currently stands most are already in competition with foreign satellite coverage of the Premiership which quite possibly is at present affecting their attendance figures.

There is also the view that the loss of revenue which will emanate from any future deals as a result of no longer negotiating rights ‘territory by territory’, will in turn affect the Premiership’s ability to bring, retain or even honour the existing contracts of the World’s top footballing talent. Firstly, this view ignores the fact that, as TV deals expire and require renegotiation so to do player’s contracts. A reduced income from television will mean that players and their agents will be unable to demand extortionate wages because there quite simply isn’t the money to pay them this sum. Whether the Premiership will lose this talent to overseas competitors also overlooks the fact that, being an ECJ ruling this will be binding on all member states. Therefore all of the major competitors for the Premiership’s talent – Spain, Italy and Germany – will be equally as effected by this ruling. The only competition that will possibly be strengthened by this ruling will be those leagues which are outside of the jurisdiction of EU Law, therefore South America, the Middle East, Japan, Australia, China, Russia or the USA – none of which at this present time or in the near future remotely pose a threat in regard to poaching the best of Europe’s talent.

In essence then, who are likely to be the biggest losers should ‘Murphy’s Law’ come to pass? Not the football fan who is likely to pay less to view Premiership football on TV, in the pub and - seeing that empty stadiums make poor PR and poor TV – quite possibly less in admission fees. Not grass roots football either should the lower divisions be smart enough to move their programme to avoid clashing with the Premiership. Not even media corporations like Sky or ESPN – which have their own sister organisations throughout Europe who will simply provide foreign language coverage of the same matches shown in English. Also, in an increasingly fragmented media world where few can guarantee their advertisers a large simultaneous audience, live sports will retain their appeal to broadcasters. The biggest losers from ‘Murphy’s Law’ are more than likely than not to be the biggest mercenaries who have largely turned many people off the game in recent years – average players on extortionate wages and their agents will quite possibly be commanding less in the years to come. And no need to cry too many tears for them – while the rest of the country will be working harder for its daily bread they’ll still be eating cake, it’ll just be a less expensive brand of cake than they’ve been accustomed to in recent years. Also the international super rich who in recent years have spent billions buying Premiership clubs as a cash cow which they hoped to sell on at some point in the future for a profit –‘Murphy’s law’ will mean their investments will be worth far less than the inflated figure they bought it for. And in an environment where financial insanity has reigned for far too long, can either really be a bad thing?