Maybe we were a little fortunate at times last week but in the end it was a reasonably comfortable win over Blackpool. That meant we ended up +£13 in our Betfair accounts but lost £20 at Betclic. However if you log back in to Betclic you’ll see they’ve kindly refunded us the £20 to have a punt on the Liverpool game so we’ll consider ourselves +£13 at this point.
Admittedly Liverpool were very, very good against Man City last Monday evening. I can see Carroll and Suarez being a real handful for our defence and Carroll has already scored one of his trademark headers against Arsenal this season whilst he was at Newcastle. Our centre-half pairing of course being Koscielny and Squillaci at the time certainly didn’t help matters so it will definitely improve our chances if we have Djourou back. It’s a tough one to call but Liverpool are much stronger at Anfield and have actually lost 10 games on the road this season. For these reasons I think Liverpool will get a goal but I’m still backing an Arsenal win so am going for 2-1 to the Gunners.
At Betclic go on “Football” then “Eng. Premier League” and under Sunday 17 April click on “Arsenal – Liverpool”. At the moment under the “Correct Score” market the odds on the 2-1 are “8.00” so click that and place the £20 that we’ve had refunded, making very sure that it’s accepted.
At Betfair find the game as always under “Football”, ‘English Football” and then “Barclays Premier League”. Under “Fixtures 17 April” click the “Arsenal v Liverpool” game and find the correct score market. Click the pink lay button for the 2-1 and, just as last week, place £13. As I did this the lay odds to bet against the Arsenal 2-1 were “9.40” (Ed’s note – drifted into “9.20” when I placed the bet, but that’s even better as the liability is lesser) so purely for this week it gives us the following profit...
- Arsenal win 2-1: +£30.80 (+£140 at Betclic, -£109.20 at Betfair)
- Any other scoreline: -£7 (-£20 at Betclic, +£13 at Betfair)
However if we look at our accumulated profit over the two weeks there a couple of things which are important to note:
- At first look it may appear as we’ve lost £7 but our £20 loss at Betclic is still the same money as last week so overall if our bet doesn’t come in we’ll be +£6. (2 x £13 lays coming in at Betfair but only £20 lost over the two weeks).
- In the past our free bet stake has not been included in our returns but this time round we actually have a real £20 refunded to us so our initial stake will be included in our bet. If the 2-1 comes in we will have £160 in our Betclic account not £140. So added on to last week’s £13 we’d have made a combined profit of £43.80, but if we include our initial stake you could see it as £63.80.
So even with a slightly different format you can still see over the two parts there’s a profit no matter what. It might only end up as a £6 profit but it’s still a guaranteed profit and it means onwards and upwards to next week’s huge game against Tottenham.
Remember, “Why gamble when you can win!”
