Peter Northcott
Starting with the former:
- History and tradition.
- Stability (slightly shaken by recent Kroenke takeover, but least bad outcome in the circumstances).
- The biggest club stadium in the biggest city in western Europe (delivered on time and on budget to boot).
- Sustainable Finances.
- A great youth system, culminating in…
- Highly technically accomplished young players who play aesthetic football, put together at very little relative cost and who are already worth far more than we paid for them.
- A manager recently adjudged “Coach of the Decade” (all of which has been spent with Arsenal) and particularly strong in the areas of player recruitment and development.
And, the less good side:
- No trophies for nearly 6 years.
- Ongoing need to pay off the debt associated with the new stadium, thereby restricting investment in the team and fans suffering high ticket prices.
- The worst medical record in the country – on average, each first team squad player missed 30% of matches last season, the impact of this then exacerbated by the need to then get back up to speed and loss of continuity. Only a little better this season.
- Inexperience, coupled with the trophy drought and injury record, leading to a shortfall in confidence and mental fragility.
- Some players, less driven by success, happy to pick up a wage.
- A stubborn manager who appears tactically inflexible, too willing to persevere with players who are not at the right level, is unable to resolve the team’s medical problems notwithstanding his background in physiology, and whose judgement and behaviour is becoming erratic due to the stresses associated with the job.
Conclusions:
- The club is in an incredibly strong position for the medium to long term. Ask yourself how many of our strengths are shared with Chelsea, for example? You may argue that they don’t share our weaknesses – but our weaknesses are easier to fix than theirs. Last season I forecast at least four league titles and two Champions League victories over the next ten years, provided Wenger remains and, when the time comes, is replaced by someone of a similar stature. Nearly one year has gone by without a dent in the above target, but I remain confident.
- Having written that, we have NEVER won the Premier League the season after a World Cup or European Championship. After a good break in the summer hopefully everyone will be fit and raring to go next August (and our good players remain). But…
- We MUST sort out the medical side. Whether it is overtraining, the pitch (has anyone ever seen a divot at the Grove?), the style of play, poor quality staff (coupled with the advent of players hiring their own docs, physios, trainers etc – a recipe for confusion), the players being made of glass or whatever, the current situation is crippling us (in both senses of the word).
- Some surgery is required to the playing squad – and probably to the coaching staff and defensive tactics - but let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater.
