Robert Exley
As an Economics Graduate, Arsene Wenger would do well to take heed in a couple of quotes from a man whose work he would no doubt have studied during his time in academia. John Maynard Keynes’s work on economic theory gained great notoriety during the Great Depression of the 1930s, although the Wall Street crash itself had led to a complete change of direction for Keynes which was a move not without its critics. As one observer who directly challenged him on this had stated ‘But my lord, when we addressed this issue a few years ago, didn't you argue the other side?’ Keynes however coolly replied ‘when the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir?’ and the view that Wenger has to change his mind over Arsenal’s direction seems to be an overwhelming one now and considering some of the noises he has made over the last two months, it’s probably one even he now realises. However one other quote from Keynes is equally true to Arsene’s predicament, being that ‘It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong’. So where is Arsene roughly right I hear you ask? Well contrary to popular belief ‘Project Youth’ is actually a theory which overall has been roughly a right one. This season the successes have largely been under the age of 23 – Samir Nasri was a contender for PFA Footballer of the Year for his performances up to spring of this year and 19 year old Jack Wilshere was a mere shoo-in for the PFA Young Footballer of the Year. Jack is going to be a key figure in next season’s Premiership and Euro 2012, however his youthful enthusiasm and unwillingness to turn down the call to represent his nation is at the risk of being exploited by Stuart Pearce’s self-interest and the ‘Sweet F.A.’ level of intelligence and foresight from the body that controls our national game as he runs the risk of burn out by playing in this summer’s Under 21 championships.
They say also when you’ve got a troublesome leak get the Poles in to do the job to a top standard for half the price and but for a couple clangers, our young Polish goalkeeper stepped up to plate quite satisfactorily to plug our leaky defence to a certain degree. Many have opined that a new goalkeeper is required at Arsenal; I’m roughly inclined to agree to a certain extent though express caution in how we proceed with this matter. Once I met someone who claimed that in their youth they were a member of group of East London mods who, when out on stag night, came across Brian Poole and the Tremeloes in an Indian restaurant. Apparently, for some reason or other probably related to a heavy night on the booze, they came to blows with the popular early to mid-60s beat group. As a result of such drunken lunacy, the groom spent his wedding day with a black eye. At his reception the DJ had decided to wind him up by playing ‘Do You Love Me Now That I Can Dance’ more than just the once. What’s the relevance of this story? I hear you ask. Well, lesson number one is that young men in their early 20s are prone to do stupid things without thinking them out first. Lesson number two is that had the blows that night been aimed a little lower, Chesney Hawkes, being the offspring of Tremeloes’ bass player Chip Hawkes, may never have existed to even threaten the charts for his 15 minutes of fame back in April 1991. Our very own ‘Chesney’ has had a good season but for rash errors as a result of not thinking his actions out beforehand – twice in the Carling Cup Final and at White Hart Lane. To punish ‘Chesney’ with relegation to the subs’ bench however may well be the punch below the belt that could risk the long term development of a player whom many agree could possibly be a fixture at the top end of football for the next 10-15 years.
Another example on how to proceed comes from our goalkeeper’s musical namesake. In the spring of 1991, the aforementioned Mr Hawkes was touted for big things after starring as Arsenal fan Roger Daltrey’s son in low budget Brit flick ‘Buddy’s Song’ and topping the singles chart. However, after his ‘One and Only’ chart topping hit Chesney flopped like a jelly on a wet mattress. From being talked up as the floppy haired new Jason Donovan by the Smash Hits brigade, by the time of their poll winners’ party in December he had unanimously topped almost every ‘worst’ list and was harshly booted back to obscurity. However, rumours persisted though the mid-1990s that Hawkes Jnr. had reinvented himself over on the West Coast of America with a pretty useful Cobain-esque grunge outfit, though in the British public imagination will always be associated as a cheesy failed teen heartthrob with a Nick Kershaw penned one hit wonder. The moral of the story therefore, is that sometimes your big chance in life can come too soon and if you’re advised and schooled by the wrong people your big chance itself can be a hindrance to your future chances.
Our very own Chesney effectively got where he is today by playing brinksmanship with Wenger, threatening to leave Arsenal should he not get his shot at the number one jersey. Apparently ‘Chesney’ has long featured in Wenger’s long term plans, last year’s attempts to secure a goalkeeper were shaped by attempting to acquire a strong goalkeeper in the twilight of his years that will not hamper Chesney’s progress, hence the advances made to 37 year old Mark Schwarzer. Chesney’s mistakes this season have been entirely down to the folly of youth, however if you’re going to play brinksmanship with the Arsenal you’re going to have to walk it like you talk it and grow up fast. Therefore I feel Chesney should start the season as first choice goalkeeper, however a strong back up is needed to keep him on his toes and preferably one over the age of 35 who is winding down his career at the top. The main contenders seem to be Jens, who seeing that he has come out of retirement is largely an unknown quantity and did not look that sturdy when he featured against Blackpool. David James is another possible name in the hat; however I’ve heard mixed reviews on his performances at Bristol City this season. The front runner I feel therefore would be 40 year old Brad Freidel, whose contract at Aston Villa is coming to an end this summer.
It’s rumoured that Spurs too are after his signature and also it may not be likely that Friedel will be interested in being a bench warmer for the Arsenal. If we do secure the services of Friedel it may well come at a price on the wages front, though possibly a price worth paying. If we can assure Friedel of an appearance for all cup games and meaningless Champions League fixtures should we qualify and top the group we could be guaranteeing Friedel a run out on a monthly basis – enough to keep him within the loop of top level football and in the shop window should someone want to sign him next summer and we want to offload him if Chesney becomes a comfortable first choice custodian of the Arsenal goal. Also should the scenario occur where the rigours of the top level overwhelm Chesney, Friedel can comfortably step in as the first choice. Chesney may well be disappointed if that scenario happened, but seems to be a creature of great self-confidence, therefore it will give him time to come back and develop his game. Either way Chesney would be learning a great deal more from Friedel than he ever will from Almunia or Fabianski, which is a price you simply can’t put a figure on. Also it could be argued, the goalkeeping coaches at Arsenal – Gerry Peyton and Tony Roberts really aren’t of the standard required at this level. Anyone who has watched the latter turn out for Dagenham & Redbridge in the lower leagues may well have witnessed his penchant for winding up away fans despite the ‘maturity’ that is supposed to come from being a man in his 40s, therefore he really isn’t the influence you want moulding a young goalkeeper’s temperament. Arsenal would therefore do well to invest in its talent and spend the summer headhunting the best in the business to coach Chesney between the sticks.
There is also a great rump at the club who clearly have failed to produce the goods, who I’d like to christen the ‘10%ers’, based on their season-long application to the cause (only 4% more than the season ticket rise that funds their wages). However, most of this set aren’t really that young anymore. Abou Diaby, Denilson and Nicklas Bendtner are all now over the age of 23. In the case of Diaby, I gained infamy among Newcastle fans on the web for my portrayal of Joey Barton’s role in Diaby’s sending off, however at 4-0 up Diaby played straight into the hands of a lumpenprole idiot and we all can remember what followed. Against Blackpool he picked up another meaningless booking and allegedly came to blows in the dressing room with Robin Van Persie who had the ‘audacity’ to pick him up on it. Denilson has turned out to be the Brazilian version David Hillier, or ‘Braz-Hillier’ as I like to call him. Being named after the capital city of his home country I feel is the perfect honour for him, as Brasillia, unlike Sao Paulo, Rio De Jeneiro, or Belo Horizonte it is a post-war, purpose built, sterile city that many Brazilians dislike and considered a failure on the part of the so-called wisdom of the powers that ruled at the time. It is in essence a South American Basildon or Harlow; it’s cultureless and ultimately so un-Brazilian, so… well Denilson! If you really want to veer into dodgy Daily Mail territory with your uncharitable-ness toward Denilson you could say that he is a walking embodiment that contradicts David Cameron’s claim that the unskilled from outside of the EU can no longer find employment within the UK.
As for Bendtner, well any sympathy garnered from the fact that a 6ft 5ins forward is clearly being played out of position on the wing crossing balls he really should be getting on the end of himself is quickly lost through his obvious arrogance. He isn’t too dissimilar from a young Niall Quinn on the playing front, but the young Irishman was in essence a very modest man and willing to apply himself hence the reason why he eventually come good away from Highbury. Bendtner simply isn’t in this mould. If I could describe Nic Bendtner in a sentence I would plagiarize two advertising slogans from another Danish export – firstly Nic Bendtner is ‘Probably the Best Forward in the World’ if the judge and jury on such a panel consisted solely of Nicklas Bendtner. Also, Carlsberg don’t make self-hyped arrogant sub-standard Premiership forwards, but if they did they’d probably be something akin to Nicklas Bendtner. Apparently Juventus are willing to offer an eight figure sum for his signature and all proceeds from the sale of players at Arsenal are apparently ring fenced for re-investment in the transfer market. So what the hell are we waiting for exactly?
In fact, there are few among the 10%ers crowd that actually are under the age of 23, Arshavin is quite literally a ‘grandfather’ at the age of 30. We all remember his brilliant first half-season in 2009, but he has been so underwhelming since. He is apparently to train with Zenit St. Petersberg for his country’s upcoming international fixtures. They are reported to be interested in taking him back, so let’s negotiate a £10million plus figure for his release and make sure his ticket to St. Petersberg is one-way. Also Rosicky was once the little maestro, but this season is now 30 plus and producing bum-notes for the Arsenal. The far from indispensible 26 year old Gael Clichy is also apparently stalling on a new contract with Juventus ready to spend up to £13.2 million for his signature. In Kieran Gibbs and Armand Traore we have possible cover, though both are not without criticism in some quarters. If Gibbs can get regular football and stay injury free we may see a positive development over next season. However there is also the possibility of cover in Thomas Vermaelen, who was often utilised as a left back at Ajax and Mamadou Sarko if he joins in the summer. Both are central defenders by trade; however their shifting to the left is no more wild an idea than playing Bendtner on the wing. On the right hand side we have 28 year old Emmanuel Eboue, who with the ridiculous 98th minute penalty conceded against Liverpool has most probably lost most of the goodwill he has tried to build up since Wigan in 2008.
From the offloading of the ‘10%ers’ then, I would estimate a figure roughly in the region of £64 million to be freed up in sales according to this site. What then of the talent which we’d rather keep, but most probably want out? Well if Cesc wants to leave and someone outside of the Premiership want to pay over £40 million for him I don’t see the point in keeping him hostage. He is now two seasons short of his testimonial therefore he has given the club enough service not to be held against his will. There are also worrying noises emanating from Samir Nasri’s contract talks. As Nasri is in the final year of his Arsenal contract he may well be playing hard ball to maximise his pay increase. Wenger will therefore need to act quickly with regard to this matter and if a new contract is not signed by the start of pre-season look to sell Nasri to reap the maximum fee. So it can be considered that a considerable amount is open to Arsenal from player sales, but what should it be spent on and what will fill the void left by departures?
Well firstly I received criticism in my last article for suggesting ’Thomas Vermaelen ‘couldn’t defend for toffee’. In hindsight I believe I was guilty of hyperbole, but had the kernel of a point, which I believe is better explained here. A season on the sidelines has led to slight amnesia of a few of Vermaelen’s weaknesses from some Arsenal fans, he is though a definite starter when fit and if Cesc leaves this summer, the man to take the captain’s armband. I also received stick from some for suggesting Robert Huth as a replacement; however he is more of an example of what could be got on the cheap that was a better alternative to what we already have. A Huth and Vermaelen/Djourou/Koscielny partnership would be better than any of the latter three lining up alongside each other as they are much of a much-ness in footballing terms. With the money reaped from sales a better replacement can be secured in the shape of either Per Mertesecker, Sarko, Thiago Silva, Giorgio Chiellini, Phillipe Mexes or Walter Samuel, although no side has actually ever won the EPL without an English centre half in their side so maybe we should be looking closer to home. From Project Youth we also have 19 year old Kyle Bartley; the big 6ft 3ins defender has impressed while out on loan at Rangers but has intimated he may leave should Wenger sign a new centre Half. His age means that Wenger can’t take the gamble on him as a first teamer next season, he does however have potential. Wenger therefore should look to appease Bartley with a Premiership loan spell, like Wilshere’s at Bolton who if Cahill is sold will have a Bartley shaped hole in the middle of their defence. After a season of a loan to a Premiership side, Wenger can fully assess Bartley’s long-term prospects in a better position in twelve months’ time.
Project youth could also see Henri Lansbury and a fit again Emmanuel Frimpong pushed toward the first team gaps that a Diaby, Eboue and Denilson departure may bring. The former is fresh from a successful promotion campaign with Norwich in League One where he won many admirers, as well as impressing against Tottenham in the Carling Cup in September . The latter was deeply unlucky in picking up his injury in pre-season as he would surely have featured around the fringes of the first team this season. Those who have witnessed the Ghanian-born Broadwater Farm raised lad in action would testify as to what a hardworking and tough tackling player he is. The prospect of him reuniting with Jack in the first team is one reason to look forward to August in itself. Should we lose either Cesc or Nasri then Wenger may possibly bolster the midfield with Juventus’ unsettled Felipe Melo, who has been a long term target for Arsenal. He’d better grow a thick skin however; as he has had numerous run-ins with Juve fans for not being supportive enough. How he is likely to handle 60,000 boos after a goalless first half at home to Sunderland is anyone’s guess.
Arsenal should also ditch 4-5-1, as well as the 4-2-3-1 formations. Both are more like a dyslexic’s attempt at a Manfred Mann song, rather than a formation to win the Premiership. Arsenal should re-embrace the 4-4-2 formation and provide Robin Van Persie with an adequate striking partner. Many of you may have read James Olley’s article in the Evening Standard touting Theo Walcott as a potential centre forward. With Walcott’s explosive speed but little in the way of skill or trickery it’s not an idea without merit, sadly though Walcott also has little in the way of greed or the bravery to take a chance when through on goal. I can recall against Wigan last season sitting about four rows back from the pitch behind the goal and seeing Walcott clean through, however his whole body shifted as he looked to pass and the chance went begging. It took every ounce of self-discipline for me not to high jump the barrier, grab Walcott by the scruff of the neck and shout ‘WHO ARE YOU PASSING TO, YOU STUPID BOY?’ in his face. Luckily for Walcott it’s a criminal offence to invade the pitch and grab players, so thought better of it within a milli-second of developing that aggressive impulse (damn you, nanny state!).
The real answer to our attacking problems I feel is mean, green and has previously scored against Arsenal in the Champions League. He has also scored an ‘incredible’ 23 goals in 26 appearances last season. He can play either central or on the wing, he shoots from long range, he’s made overtures toward wanting to play in the EPL, he is also big and powerful and the likes of John Terry and Vidic certainly won’t like him when he’s angry – he is FC Porto’s Brazilian striker ‘Hulk’. Ours for a £33million get out clause. If Arsenal can raise around £60million from player sales what’s stopping us? Considering also that Arsenal failed to reap around £20million this season from failure to progress in terms of prize money, further gate receipts, TV money and possibly season ticket renewals, Stan Kroenke would do well to see any expenditure over that received from player sales as investment rather than loss. In the words of another great quote from John Maynard Keynes ‘the long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead’. Let’s not let penny pinching for long run economic successes leave another season dead before it has even started!
