Firstly an apology, we made a mistake with the T&Cs of our large bet two weeks ago on there being under 3.5 goals in the Leeds match. This was a “goal line” bet which does not count for the wagering requirement and we thought that it did. There is still £470 left to wager - which is practically our balance now, so we will try to again complete the wagering or bust out this week.
The midweek game on the 1st Feb sees us travel away to struggling Bolton, and after the weekend’s comeback against Aston Villa, confidence is high. The odds reflect Arsenals supremacy but we want that in a way to keep the Betfair liability down when we hedge it. At Bet365, placing the balance on Arsenal to win at 1.7 will return a profit of £328.18 (£468.84 x 1.7). Now at this point the balance will be £797 and to withdraw another £1.16 must be wagered, so just bet £2 on any team you think will win and odds are over 1.5, and after that bet is settled withdraw a minimum of £795 if that last bet loses, a bit more if it wins.
To make sure we don't lose overall as usual we are going to lay Arsenal to win at Betfair. The current odds are there at 1.74 in the pink box. It has been trading between 1.72 and 1.75 but with only a day to go we would suggest you take the odds that are there rather than wait until any nearer the kick off, as there is more potential for it to drift than to come in. Laying £420 at 1.74 has a £310.80 liability which means an Arsenal win will put us another £20ish profit and we are now withdrawing from Bet365 (after one more £2 punt). (Ed’s note – When I laid this, the odds were 1.75 to lay, and that only covered some of the £420. So I cancelled the unmatched portion of the bet and put that amount on the next available price of 1.76. The amount does not matter that much, it is extracting as much as we can of the bet365 £200 bonus that is our main concern, so we are placing bets that will not win or lose us a fortune to extract the bonus as profit. The closer you leave it to the game the more money there is in the market, so less likely to fluctuate, although as Russell says they are more likely to drift out and increase the liability, I’d try and get your bets on now.)
OR we have, at long last, actually bust out of Bet365, we will be -£50ish on that bet but out of all the bets placed to date so far that is still going to be a net +£100.
Again I am sorry about the previous error of the Under 3.5 goals bet not meeting the wagering T&Cs. Alongside next week’s bookmaker as we continue the journey there will be a full audit/breakdown of how the bets have done to date, and specifically a separate breakdown of what happened at Bet365.
Why gamble when you can win!
