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Fourth Place – Is it up for grabs?

Arsenal won’t need 70 points to make a CL berth

7 February, 2012 9:00 21 comments
Fourth Place – Is it up for grabs?

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Following the groundswell of positive comments on my previous article about a parallel universe in which we didn’t leave Highbury, I have taken a look at the league table and our remaining fixtures to see whether fourth is a viable option for us. This has been inspired by a number of comments I have read on the Online Gooner extending the myth that “we need 70 points to secure fourth”. Can we bust that myth?

The team coming fourth in the last ten seasons has secured between 60 and 76 points. However, this is perhaps not that relevant, since we only need one more point than the fifth-place team (or same points and better goal difference) to come fourth. In the last ten seasons, the team coming fifth have secured between 56 and 67 points – this is the benchmark we should look at

I then took out my Crystal Ball and looked at our remaining fixtures:

Opponent Result Pts
Sunderland A Win 3
Scum H Lose 0
Liverpool A Lose 0
Newcastle H Win 3
Everton A Win 3
Villa H Win 3
QPR A Win 3
Man City H Lose 0
Wolves A Draw 1
Wigan H Win 3
Chelsea H Lose 0
Stoke A Draw 1
Norwich H Win 3
WBA A Win 3
Total Points 26

Forty points in the bag from our first 24 games plus 26 gives a total of 66 at the end of the season. In eight of the last ten seasons, this would have been enough for us to secure fourth place; in one season, it would have gone down to goal difference.

I would also argue that the team coming fourth will need fewer points than in previous seasons, because competition is more intense – teams taking points off each other. So, to answer my own question, yes; fourth place is up for grabs for us, and I predict that, this season, 63 points will be sufficient to secure fourth place. Is fourth place good enough? No, but given how this season has gone, I think securing Champions League football would be a great result for next year.

Final prediction – with 40 points in the bag, we only need one more win to give us more points than the 42 West Ham got relegated with in '02-'03, the previous 38-game record. I reckon we will still have Premier League football next season.

Come on you Gooners!

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21
comments

  1. Wombledin

    Feb 10, 2012, 0:50 #18464

    Your analysis for our remaining away games is rather optimistic given our away form so far this season, which has been very poor even with a good run of consistent form. So far in 12 away games we have averaged only 1.167 points a game from 4 wins and 2 draws. In our home form so far it's been 2.167 points per game. Translating that to our remaining 14 home and away games equates to only 23.38 points (round to 24). So I confidently predict we will finish with 40 + 24 = 64 points and finish 5th or 6th unless we can dramatically turn our away form around (our away games are against 'easier' teams than our home games). The average points over the last 5 premiership seasons for a 4th place finish is 70.8 points.

  2. sparksy

    Feb 08, 2012, 13:12 #18359

    What is the point for us supporters of getting 4th place? Other than the board can fill their pockets with the extra money gained from a higher finish and the extra revenue from CL football. We as supporters don't see any of that, either through top players coming in or competing for titles. I don't trust anything that comes out of the club. They are spinning lines to protect there line of income as the natives are very restless.

  3. GaryFootscrayAustralia

    Feb 08, 2012, 8:12 #18340

    Bunch, you're correct, and therein lies part of the problem. 4th place last season was considered a failure, whereas this season it would be considered a remarkable achievement, relative to the poor start and patched - up squad. Meanwhile, the conveyor belt of cash into the coffers continues unhindered.

  4. In Arsene We (T)rust!

    Feb 08, 2012, 7:53 #18339

    Come on lads don't be so downbeat. We are in for a TREBLE this season. We can still mathematically win the league, we are firm favorites for Champions League and FA Cup given our MENTAL STRENGHT (Newcastle 4-4 Arsenal),DESIRE and HUNGER(Arsenal 1-2 Birmingham) and PRIDE (Man Utd 8-2 Arsenal. Plus we have a tactical genius (Arsenal 1-2 Man Utd) in Wenger at the helm.

  5. bunch

    Feb 08, 2012, 1:08 #18338

    Well RJ, your not leaving Highbury piece was utter garbage but this one at least has some sense to it. With this team it is almost impossible to predict anything. But 26 more points seems acheiveable. For me CL football is only about money. We are never going to win it, certainly not with our current manager and our current approach to the player market, transfer fees and wages. I certainly don't consider it a trophy equivalent and completely disagree with Wenger when he says he would prefer 4th spot to winning the FA Cup. However, as you say, getting 4th for the current squad will represent an acheivement and will build their confidence for next season. Last season's 4th was all we were left with after seemingly being in the title race for much of the season. We were so badly on the decline that if last season went on for two more games we would have ended outside the top 4. This season we have moved upwards from a disasterous start and if we can get 4th following the recent string of poor results then we are on an upward trajectory.

  6. Joe Fitzpatrick

    Feb 07, 2012, 22:48 #18336

    Arsenal will not make 4th place now. We can hope and we can dream but we just haven't been good enough this season to suggest that we can maintain a long winning streak.

  7. Clouless

    Feb 07, 2012, 20:35 #18334

    dear who cares. i personally sympathise with you. why doesnt our board, manager have more fight in them ? am i missing something or did you notice spurs fight tooth and nail for their point at liverpool ? how many times have spurs rolled over and died this season compared to our £120mpa overhead ? i maintain our manager has lost his edge, his fight and the board is made up of personalities who are happy to keep banking £1-2mpa and maintain status quo. Shankley, Clough, Fergy, Jose, wouldnt stand for it but Whinger also enjoys his £6-7mpa and does not care about the fans. hes releted to Louis XIV for christs sake why would he care ? Fergy's seat is among the fans at old trafford. Whinger can barely hear them from his seat

  8. Shropshire Lad

    Feb 07, 2012, 18:19 #18328

    "mystic", I admire your optimism but are you staring into one of Arsene' crystal balls! He talks a great deal of 'crystal' (clear) bollocks, full of 'spirit' and 'mental strength'. He may need a prayer mat for the matches coming up in the rest of this month or we will be judging him before May. If your 'predictions' prove right in terms of losing to Spuds, Liverpool, Chaves and Citeh then my prediction is that he will not survive and will be taking the France job.

  9. Jim

    Feb 07, 2012, 18:14 #18327

    You havent added into the equation that we collapse every season come March

  10. floody

    Feb 07, 2012, 17:30 #18324

    No way will they get 3 points away at Sunderland, QPR or Everton. Oh sorry, our mental strength will get us the results!!!

  11. Who Cares?

    Feb 07, 2012, 16:17 #18321

    So yet again, another season where Arsenal fans are 'praying for 4th'. And WHAT FOR? CL football? For one this rubbish manager and mediocre team have no chance in the CL. If you think making the CL alone will be enough to keep RVP - as garbage like Diaby, Chamakh and Rosicky are in continued employment then think again. So RVP is gone. Also CL football what for? Do we spend the extra money on quality? Nope. It gets trousered. Do we use the prestige of being in the CL to attract the top end players? Nope. We use it as an excuse to be cheap and dire. Do we actually have a cat in hell's chance of winning the CL with a tactical retard like Arsene Wenger? A man who only knows one formation, has no man-management or motivational skills, cannot coach a defence to save his pathetic life and is a now comical in-game substitute maker? LOL. Jog on. So my question to you, is what you are discussing 4th place for? Arsenal have continued to achieve nothing - it's been SEVEN years without a pot now. 7. Think about that and then think about the price Arse fans are asked to pay. Finishing 4th and Wenger will persuade all the easily persuaded that all is well, that we have 'overachieved given our disastrous start to the season'. (without ppl realising that our shocking season start needn't have happened without Wenger's OWN incompetence). 4TH PLACE IS NOWHERE. I want to kill this Loser mentality Wenger has created. Finally, the fans have woken up, wised up and gotten on his back. I want to see a competitive Arsenal team challenging for everything. It shows what an awful manager AW is that his players cannot find any decent performances when it counts for winning trophies, but they can only muster up anything for the '4th place trophy'. Let's see how impressed RVP is with 4th place come May hmmm? No. I want to see Arsenal miss out on the CL. Because then the sh*** will truly hit the fan when the board try and charge top dollar for the Europa League. Only 5th place or lower will change the pattern. So come on Sunderland this Saturday!:(

  12. Welling

    Feb 07, 2012, 16:02 #18319

    Hmmmmm. Can you look into your crystal ball again and (truthfully) predict the points that Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle will amass between now and season end and see how we get on then?

  13. Marc

    Feb 07, 2012, 15:40 #18318

    the issue is are we going to get ahead of chelsea - for sure we are not now going to get ahead of spurs as we are not going to make up 11 points on them over 14 matches because you may have noticed they are quite good this season ! especially NOT havind sold Modric. I personally feel we are going to finish behind chelsea and also liverpool as they have better players/squad.

  14. maguiresbridge gooner

    Feb 07, 2012, 15:20 #18317

    Well RJ i certainly wouldn't bet on some of your predictions till the end of the season but you never know your crystal ball might be right i doubt it but you never know maybe if we'd shown a bit of this so called mental strength earlier on in the season blackburn (a)wolves fulham bolton we wouldn't have to worry about predictions and scraping around for fourth place if wer'e lucky.

  15. johhnyhawley lovinggooner

    Feb 07, 2012, 14:27 #18313

    well we imploded last year(s) so maybe some one else will this time and let us in!

  16. Guy in Jersey

    Feb 07, 2012, 14:20 #18312

    "Mystic", I admire your optimism, but I make it we'll be lucky to get to 63 points. My crystal ball suggests we will only reach 61 points, so I hope you're right. However, the 63 point target is only another 20 points away for Chelsea, which makes our clash on 21st April even more important (although I have it down as a draw compared to your predicted loss). What demonstrates our gradual decline is that over the last four seasons, the gap between the champions and our final points total has grown whilst the gap between Arsenal and fifth place has continued to shrink. Even in 2007, when we finished eight points clear of fifth place, we were 21 points behind champions Man Utd. This is not the sort of consistency I'm looking for (i.e. a clear downward trajectory). So, yes, securing Champions League football again in 2012-2013 would be a great result, but it's going to be way, way too close for comfort.

  17. Gooner48

    Feb 07, 2012, 14:18 #18311

    If we lose to Chelsea like you predict and your other predictions are accurate then by my poor maths Chelsea would need to drop 19 points from their other 13 matches for us to just draw level. Can't see that RJ. We have to beat Chelsea and at least avoid defeat against Liverpool.

  18. Tony Evans

    Feb 07, 2012, 13:54 #18309

    RJ - I think you are being a bit generous with 3 points for us at Sunderland and Everton, but really what is the point of CL football for us anyway? We don't sign the top players that are meant to be attracted by the CL and we all know we are nowhere near good enough to win the thing. All qualifying will serve to do is to keep Wenger in a job for another year.

  19. pradeep kachhala

    Feb 07, 2012, 13:00 #18302

    this makes no sense - if we lose to chelsea and liverpool and spurs who are our rivals for the champions league spots how on earth do we win 4th spot? I don't think we can lose another game this season

  20. Will

    Feb 07, 2012, 12:42 #18298

    Nothing like a bit of serious analysis ! The problem with it is that this side is capable of beating any of the sides but also quite capable of losing to any of them. The last 2 seasons have suggested we collapse rather than kick on at this stage of the season. Might buy into your hopeful analysis if Jack were back and firing on all cylinders, but the truth is were hanging on by a thread. Its slightly off piste but was anyone else seriously impressed with Coquelin, I thought he was terrific on Saturday.

  21. Mark T

    Feb 07, 2012, 12:36 #18296

    Surely an analysis of CFCs remaining fixtures would be a better guide to the total required?