Theo Jensen
I wrote an article last summer which predicted that Arsenal would finish sixth in the league because we did not appear prepared to speculate to accumulate with the purchase of top players. I made some suggestions based on not a great deal of research, reading blogs, comments etc. of possible targets, the point being that we could afford proven players without ruining ourselves financially. Curiously, I was accused of playing too much Football Manager, which is odd, since I'd seen tons of articles where targets were suggested, but apparently list-formatting is a highly-advanced managerial technique.
Anyway, now that this season has ended, and with us in the hysterically-relieving position of third, I'd like to give my view as to why it was third place in the end and not sixth or lower. There are, I believe, three key factors:
1) The incredible form of Robin van Persie - I doubt that Wenger calculated on RvP’s completing so much as a full season, let alone his winning the Golden Boot, PFA and FWA awards! With respect to that, even with the other factors not yet mentioned, you have to consider what would have happened if his customary long-term injury had occurred, or even a short-term one, with Chamakh and Park stepping in. With us just one point clear of fourth, it's worth noting that, of our 21 league wins this season, only six of those did not see RvP on the score sheet. You could argue fairly that Walcott and Gervinho should have scored more, but each one was considered a klutz in terms of finishing before the campaign even began.
2) The weakness of the Premier League - the EPL really hasn't had such weak clubs for a good 15 years. You only have to look at what transpired in the European competitions this season to see what a slump it's in. United and City were always likely to gain first and second, but Chelsea decided to appoint a manager who made them play open and attacking football without a single in-form striker! Liverpool seemed to have everything but a decent finisher before their campaign collapsed. And, whatever the reasons, our main rivals showed relegation form while Redknapp was linked to the England job.
3) The deadline day signings - we may never know whether Wenger planned to wait until late August to finalise deals for the necessary players. It would have been an odd decision to wait, given the need for the team to gel with new players, and it does seem to have been triggered by the calamitous defeat at Old Trafford. Most of these players have given us depth and have been replacements for liabilities like Djourou, Squillaci etc., but one deserves special mention: it is incredible to think that, after selling Fabregas, statistically the world's best midfielder, the void was going to be filled by Wenger promoting Ramsey. Like a game of chess, dominance of the centre is key in football, and Arteta has commanded it valiantly throughout the season. Our win at West Brom yesterday was the first we registered in the league in which he did not play!
I am obviously delighted that we achieved third, and our club deserves no less. But I do feel the cracks have been very much papered over. I genuinely believe that without the combination of the above factors, sixth place or lower would have been about right. And, looking to the future, you'd have to say City and United are the clear top two now, while Spurs only need an out-and-out goal-scorer for a complete team, if they are a little thin. Chelsea may have been 'booming' in form because of the arrival of a new manager, but arguably the tactics of AVB distorted their true capacity as a team. Liverpool are an intractable problem - they are building a team that's more than the sum of its members, so maybe they need time to gel. Though, as they've dominated most of their games this season and again mainly lacked a finisher, they could be a threat. Newcastle may even be worth a mention, assuming they hold on to their best players.
I know we are generally limited in our transfer expenditure, but by purchasing just a few more players of the calibre of Podolski, which we do have the funds to do, we could really challenge for trophies again. RvP staying, or our getting lucky with his replacement, might help though!
I felt last summer was a make-or-break one - we could have made the right acquisitions and won the league, or not and fallen to mid-table. I now see though that speculating to accumulate can be done within our preferred price brackets of players, and such a policy is really advisable: it breeds more competition for places, our younger players can understudy real pros (à la Wilshere with Fabregas), we can be consistent when fatigue and injuries hit and the morale would inevitability surge with more success.
As it stands, though, as many are well aware, the team's depth is very thin; it lacks drive and energy in performances, is mentally weak and there are gaping deficiencies in several first eleven positions. Obviously there are concerns tactically, and many more issues that could be mentioned. But it is imperative that the lessons of previous years have been learned and that we see the right activity in the transfer market, and there's not much reason to wait. The big teams will all likely recover and strengthen from here, and, when they have, Arsenal should be ready for them.
