With the wall of overseas cash said to be coming to buy FAPL clubs it is worth asking the question, "Is Arsenal out of reach?" Obviously not as the Glazers paid £790m for ManUre even if about £580m of this was borrowed money secured against the club's future income.
Chavski were bought for £140m (£60m for the shares, of which Bates got £17m) and £80m to pay off the loan that they were said to be about to default on that summer. The £500m spent on players plus the huge operating losses take the overall supermarket sweep at the Club to over £750m.
The whole of Aston Villa has been valued at £62.5m although Randy still only has undertakings to buy 85.5% of the shares.
Could West Ham be bought for £80m or £90m? The same figure is being banded around for a controlling interest in Newcastle. Portsmouth was about £20m.
What about Arsenal? The current implied value of the Arsenal shares in issue is £285m. However if you want to buy someone's house the mortgage they might have is irrelevant to the buyer, they have to pay the market value. Arsenal have close to £300m of debt giving a total Club value of close to £600m. The Highbury Square development could net the Club £100m which will reduce the debt and should have an impact on the share price, assuming the overall value of the Club is to be maintained.
The increased revenue projected to be earned at the new stadium and the near 70% increase in the TV money for the three seasons from 07/08-09/10 are positives for the Club.
Are the Arsenal shareholders "sellers" at the right price? Who knows what the long-term intentions of the directors are? Danny Fiszman owns 25%, Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith 16%, and David Dein 15%. Together with family associates and the ITV 10% (which is up for sale) the 75% needed for overall control is in the hands of few. The Arsenal Supporters Trust is actively seeking to broaden the ownership of the Club to more supporters as well as trying to unite the current small shareholders.
Villa supporters have welcomed Lerner, Chavski appear to love Roman's cash but one can always have too much of a good thing! The verdict on Glazer is mixed at best. Time will tell on this one although it is hard to see how burdening a debt free club with so much borrowed money and the cash needed to service this can be a good thing.
Of course Arsenal is affordable. It does not have to be a mega rich individual, rather a consortium of loaded investors. The Middle East money will be able to see inside Arsenal given the 15 year Emirates (Dubai, United Arab Emirates) deal. All it needs is willing sellers and a willing buyer.
For more information about the Arsenal Supporters Trust and details of how to join, visit www.arsenaltrust.org