So the word is that Stan Kroenke, in spite of his denials (a similar line taken before his purchase of the Colorado Rapids), will be officially announced as the buyer of ITV’s stake in Arsenal very soon.
Add to this that Danny Fiszman is reputedly a definite seller, and just the combination of his shares and ITV’s falling into the same hands would mean an offer would be made for all Arsenal shares at (presumably) the going listed OFEX rate.
When I titled a previous exclusive Arsenal could be sold tomorrow back in early September, it made for a good number of hits through newsnow. Yet, it was also very much a reality, even if many scoffed at the prospect at the time. In business though, the fact is, if the price is right, most everything is for sale. And can be sold in minutes. Even Arsenal Football Club.
It may be significant that when ‘The Sun’ ran a story last autumn that Russians were interested in buying the club, the board issued a statement denying they were in talks with anyone and had no intention of selling. No such statement this time around.
Some have pondered why Danny Fiszman would walk away after putting so much time and energy into the new stadium project. Think of it this way. He is a businessman. That time and energy, if you classify it as work, has increased the value of his holding by millions and millions. A pretty fair return for the hours really. And as an Arsenal fan (having first attended an Arsenal mach as a seven-year-old in the 1950s) he can probably walk away feeling he’s done his bit to move the club on to a level where it can compete at the same time as making a healthy personal profit. He is also predictably well advised in tax matters and would probably like to pick and choose the time he is allowed to spend in the UK without it needing to be based around attending Arsenal matches and board meetings as a matter of duty.
I think it’s fairly safe to say that if Fiszman sells, Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith will also cash in. I’ll miss her vampish presence on the directors’ table at the AGM, but suspect her influence on football matters will not be a great loss. Control of the club would be firmly in Stan Kroenke’s hands if he bought out Fiszman. There really only remain four questions after that.
Will David Dein sell up? I suspect he would. He too is a businessman and will never get a better offer for his shares.
If he does sell up, will 10% of the remaining shareholders refuse to sell out to Kroenke at the offer price and thus prevent Arsenal Holdings from being de-listed by the new majority shareholder? The Arsenal Supporters Trust would almost certainly hope so and would probably move to attempt to organise all resistance to a complete takeover. However, the nature of the Trust’s modus operandi means we will not be seeing the kind of protests witnessed outside of Old Trafford when the Glazer family moved in. In fact, there is far more likely to be a desire for a dialogue with Kroenke in the same way that has occurred between the new owners at Liverpool and groups representing the supporters. However, as the vast majority of the shares are in such a small number of hands, there is every possibility that Arsenal will go the same way as Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool.
Will Stan Kroenke be a Jack Walker type owner or more like Malcolm Glazer? The best we can hope for is that in his pursuit of profit, Kroenke will feel that enhancing the team and making Arsenal a winning outfit on the consistent basis we have seen over the last ten years is the best way to ensure a return on his investment. He is no Roman Abramovich though. Let’s just hope he doesn’t saddle the club with the kind of debt that the Glazers have done at Old Trafford (the kind of debt that can only be repaid by selling the club on in the future)
Will Arsene Wenger remain if the board changes? Possibly, if the new owners allow him the same degree of control he currently enjoys. He might even enjoy having a bit of money to spend. The best we could hope for is another three years taking him to 2011. But there is every chance he could go in 2008 (when his contract expires) if the club does change hands as looks inevitable.
If you do give a damn about who owns Arsenal and want to actually do something positive to influence matters, your best chance would be to join the Arsenal Supporters Trust. They are the fans’ group who campaign on the ownership of the club and have established good relations with the existing board. They are the voice of the Arsenal fans at this time of change.
Or if you are billionaire with money to burn you could always buy ITV’s shares and donate them to the Trust, thus ensuring Arsenal will never go private. Mrs Abramovich? Good chance to get one over on the ex? Mr Abramovich? We’ve heard you have an executive box at Ashburton Grove!