What a hue and cry over David Dein’s departure! Crisis, chaos, doom and gloom. The club is falling apart. The world will end. Or so you might think from some of the more hysterical websites, bloggers and journalists.
Personally, I think it will be a case of steady change, rather than revolution. My reading of the runes is that:
* Dein overstepped the mark by discussing plans with Kroenke without the Board's agreement
* Kroenke, who doesn't seem to be a man who would want confrontation, may well have not seen the stance by the Board coming
* Fiszman's sale of a few shares was actually quite a clever move to start the process of flushing Kroenke out
* Hill-Wood is a very experienced City man (a friend of mine had him as Chairman of his company for a while and said he may seem like an old duffer, but he is as sharp as they come) and he would not have issued the statement he and the other members of the Board did without knowing the ramifications; as our online editor has already commented this statement is, I believe, legally binding, so it would be very difficult to see how they could sell, even in a hostile takeover, without being investigated by the Takeover Panel. Having seen what can happen when the City authorities get involved, I wouldn't take that risk and I doubt Fiszman, Lady Nina et al would do so either. As Hill-Wood said, I doubt they need the money
* Even if Kroenke buys Dein's shares, would he really place Dein on the board as his representative? He doesn't strike me as man who makes aggressive decisions like that
And then there is the Dein-Wenger friendship issue and the inference that the two are intertwined and have the same views on everything. Yes, I am sure they are good friends, but there is one thing no one has commented on, or at least I haven't seen it, namely: Dein wanted Arsenal to go Wembley and wants investment to spend on the team now; Wenger wanted the new stadium and wants the time to mould his youngsters into his third winning team. You could not get two more diametrically opposed views than that. Wenger is more likely to get the time – and the funds he wants – to do it his way with the existing Board than with a Dein-Kroenke run club.
So will Wenger stay beyond this season or next? I am sure he won't walk now and I am equally sure the Board won't sack him. Moreover they won't say ‘sign a new contract or go now’. I would expect he will sign sometime before October for another 3-4 years. That way he will get the chance to finish his new team and have the power to negotiate a way out if there is a new owner in a year's time.
And if he left, would it be the end of the world? No, it wouldn't. There are some excellent other young managers out there and more emerging all the time. Koeman, Flores and O'Neill would all be more than fine in my view. One day AW will leave. Nothing stays the same forever!
An after-thought – those commentators who have criticised the Hill-Wood statement about shareholder commitment are practicing very poor journalism. Directors of public companies fully understand the legal significance of a Board of Director's statement to the Stock Exchange!