Kevin Whitcher
Sometime contributor Ian Henry likes to assist me with something for my write-up on matches, and this is what he emailed after last night’s 0-0 against Southampton…
Next weekend, I think Man City and Leicester will draw; and that Tottenham will beat Watford. Arsenal have to beat Bournemouth.
The weekend after, Arsenal have to beat Leicester and I think Man City and Tottenham will draw.
I think the non-Arsenal games’ results are pretty likely, almost predictable in fact. But can Arsenal realistically win those two games? Who’d bet on it?
The outcome of such results would be Leicester and Arsenal on 51, Man C on 49 and Spurs on 49.
After the defeat against Chelsea (which I felt was a ‘must win’ game), I ventured that I believed to have any hope of still winning the title, Arsenal would have to take maximum points from their remaining eight fixtures, and gain 14 from their seven away matches. This based on the premise that 82 points would be needed to win the title. So, the visit of Southampton was another ‘must win’ game. Looking at Ian Henry’s predictions on results elsewhere, this might not be the case, however, my feeling is that Arsenal, with three sides above them, although very much in the title race, have dropped too many points in matches where they needed to take more.
I will pinpoint these matches as the ones where goals were conceded partially due to the absence of Francis Coquelin through injury. So West Brom away, in which Coquelin limped off early in the game (three points dropped), Norwich away (two points), Southampton away (three points), Liverpool away (two points) and Chelsea home (three points). Two points out of 15 in games where champions-elect would be expected top gain more. Arsenal played these matches with two from Cazorla, Arteta, Ramsey and Flamini as the holding midfield axis and paid the price.
Last summer, there was a consensus that Arsenal needed to buy quality cover for, or an upgrade on Coquelin. Morgan Schneiderlin was available and willing to move to Arsenal. The Gunners would not pay the asking price for the French international midfielder and he moved to Old Trafford. Apparently, in a tumultuous season, United rarely lose when Schneiderlin starts. This is something I heard on BBC Radio 5 Live, but someone might care to actually confirm this. Arsenal had circa £65million of unused transfer kitty money in the bank on September 1st. When Coquelin limped off at the Hawthorns, they started paying the price of the manager’s unwillingness to strengthen his hand by using the resources available to him. If Arsenal do fail to win the title this season, the decision to pass up on Schneiderlin was the moment they lost it. Arsene Wenger’s chickens came home to roost once the number 34 was on the treatment table.
So to last night’s game. Coquelin was on the bench, presumably because it was felt a bit of a risk for him to play two matches in four days so soon after his comeback. Joel Campbell got the nod ahead of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain, and Mertesacker did not return to the starting eleven, presumably with memories of his last encounter with Southampton’s forwards fresh in the mind.
The visitors set up to frustrate Arsenal and hit them on the counter attack, and certainly did the former successfully in the first half. Even so, Ozil and Sanchez between them forged three excellent chances to score, but keeper Fraser Forster had an excellent match. The second half saw even more Arsenal dominance, but they could not beat the Forster.
Arsenal played well in creating the number of chances they did, especially allowing the leniency of referee Lee Mason in allowing the visitors to repeatedly commit tactical fouls without fear of a yellow card. There may be calls after last night’s display that the club should have bought a better striker than they currently have. I can see that argument, although Arsenal generally do score enough goals to win their matches. It is the concession of goals that has killed them.
On that note, it was an interesting decision to replace Flamini with Coquelin in the dying minutes. It told me Arsene Wenger was more concerned with not losing - with Coquelin meaning more disciplined cover against the break than the Flamster - than going for broke. He wasn't willing to risk a point and go for the three by, for example, putting Oxlade-Chamberlain on for Flamini instead. Who knows, maybe the point will prove vital. It felt a bit conservative though - but then, that is what Arsenal are these days in many ways. If the club really wanted to go for it, they would have told the manager his time was up this summer and gone for Guardiola (or another proven manager). However, they have no wish to risk a solid and reliable business model that gives them financial growth and profits. That, to me, is unexciting. My best memories are of winning trophies, not balance books.
Sure, ‘be careful what you wish for’ is the mantra of the cautious. Things could have been worse these last ten years. But they could have been better. Shouldn’t sport be about excitement, unpredictability, ups and downs? Drama? Arsenal in the Premier League since the stadium move has been purgatory. Halfway between heaven and hell. Arsenal can still win the title, sure, but I don’t feel like I am watching a title-winning team at present. Three points from the last 12. Where is the momentum? Will it be another third or fourth place finish? At least, if Leicester finished above Arsenal, it would put an end to Wenger’s excuse that you cannot compete with the big spenders, you cannot over-achieve if you are financially hampered (although this excuse is a nonsense anyway if you have unused funds in the bank).
Arsenal didn’t blow the title in the goalless draw last night. It was sacrificed in last summer’s transfer window. Plus ça change anyone? Actually, yes, something might be different this season. Spurs could finally finish above Arsene Wenger’s team…
I am now on Twitter@KevinWhitcher01.
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