If Arsène Wenger fails to deliver the Europa League trophy in May, the chances of his remaining in post will be pretty slim. However, he may end up leaving a rather interesting legacy for his successor. This is because, going on recent form, there is a reasonable chance the Gunners might finish in 7th position in the Premier League. They have five fixtures remaining, and should beat West Ham on Sunday. However, points on the road at Man Utd, Leicester and Huddersfield are less certain. And the final home match this season sees them face Burnley, the side who could overhaul them to finish sixth. Sean Dyche’s team will not be on the beach by any stretch of the imagination and Wenger’s side will have three days previously played Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final.
So, sixth or seventh? Does it really matter? Seventh would only mean no European football next season if Southampton win the FA Cup. It’s a possibility, but one you’d get decent odds on. So if they do not, then both Burnley and Arsenal would make the Europa League.
However, here’s where it gets interesting. The 7th place team (or the sixth should the Saints win the cup) will have to play in the Europa League second qualifying round this summer. The dates for that are 26th July and 2nd August. The team finishing sixth goes straight into the group stage (again if Southampton end the season trophyless).
The leaked dates for the (financially lucrative) scheduled pre-season warm up matches are -
July 26 – vs Atletico Madrid, National Stadium (Singapore)
July 28 – vs Paris Saint-Germain, National Stadium (Singapore)
August 1 – vs Manchester City, Aviva Stadium (Dublin, Ireland)
August 4 – vs Valencia, Friends Arena (Stockholm, Sweden)
One assumes that these will not take place unless Arsenal simply decide the Europa League is a distraction they can afford to do without (financially) and put an under 23 team out for the 2nd qualifying round.
For the record, Burnley, two points behind Arsenal complete the current campaign with no European distraction, playing the following five matches – 19/4 – Chelsea (H) 22/4 – Stoke (A) 28/4 – Brighton (H) 6/5 – Arsenal (A) 13/5 – Bournemouth (H)
I reckon, forgetting the Arsenal game, they could get nine points from the other four matches.
Arsenal two points to the good, could win v West Ham and if they really had to, at Huddersfield. On recent away form Manchester United and Leicester look like defeats. So effectively, Arsenal probably need to beat Burnley at home to ensure they avoid having to take part in the qualifying rounds of next season’s Europa (there is an additional 3rd qualifying round as well, so four games in total before they would make the group stage).
So in brief, do not expect any confirmation of pre-season matches until the ‘battle for sixth place’ (!) is resolved. How times have changed, eh?
Just a quick note to mention that we are recording the April Gooner podcast this evening. Our panelists will be the Highbury Spy, Mustafa Goldstein and Tim Charlesworth. If you have any topics or questions you wish the panel to debate, and get a namecheck in the process, please either…
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