So Arsenal’s performance against Villa on Saturday was arguably their worst Premier League showing this season, certainly at home. And I find it difficult to imagine where this group of players are going to find the necessary improvement to get the required result only three days later in Milan. However, this is not to condemn, but to attempt to reason what’s happened to the team.

Sometimes you need to take a long-term perspective. Arsenal are indeed top of the league by a point with ten games remaining, a great position, although in the context of the campaign right now it feels like a house of cards awaiting the final nudge. Arsene Wenger has been forced to build a relatively bargain basement team (in comparison with his major competitors) for well documented reasons. He’s done this by getting a large number of young unproven prospects and giving them the chance to go and prove themselves.

And despite all his platitudes about his belief in his charges, the fact is that by making themselves look as if they were likely champions not so long ago, they were probably ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, the wheels are starting to come off now.

Saturday was a day for reaction from the players. A convincing, no-nonsense home win against a Villa team that should have been easily beatable. Yet the performance seemed leaden, tired, unimaginative. Critically, composure in front of goal has disappeared when the rare opportunities they did fashion arose. And that is partly down to experience, and partly mental fatigue. And unfortunately, to these eyes, many of the players look shot, and that is the price of too much inexperience.

What makes me believe that the title is too big an ask now is that when I watch a team in March, in this kind of match, I can generally see whether they have the look of a side that is going for the title. Arsenal looked a long way from that, and it was indeed a bad day at the office. There were mass celebrations about the equaliser, but not from myself. I was pleased a defeat had been avoided, but not so happy I was going to jump around. It’s amazing to think I am writing off the team’s chances when they have still only suffered a solitary defeat in 28 games. But I have to tell it like I see it and it does not look good. I hope to be eating a large slice of humble pie before long. I hope I am wrong.

Contrast the reactions at the end of the Birmingham match and those after Villa. Desperation after an away draw and triumph after one at home. Yet the cold hard facts were that each game gained the team a point. We won’t know the significance of Nicklas Bendtner’s goal until May, but my suspicion is it will be academic. Some fans I spoke with after the match said they were expecting a third place finish now, and I wasn’t going to argue. If Arsenal do manage to finish the campaign with no further defeats in the competition there is every likelihood that they will actually prove me wrong and remain in top place. But their two toughest trips are yet to come.

The squad has, in fairness, been ravaged by injury. Wenger could not have predicted being without two of his four forwards at this point of the season - nor spending so much of the campaign with only three to choose from. However, what he could have predicted was that the inexperience of the squad would at some point cost. Apparently, he was indeed close to signing Jonathon Woodgate, but pulled out because he was unsure if his knee would hold up. Given the number of injuries he is having to cope with, he may be justified in that caution. However, that doesn’t excuse not signing Nicolas Anelka, a player who wanted to come to the club. The manager had the money to strengthen in January, but chose not to. Instead he let Lassana Diarra move on. His faith in his existing squad is laudable but there is every chance it will prove misplaced.

The bottom line is that he made the fans believe. But the reality is this is almost certainly a season too early and that the squad needs to be stronger as well as more experienced. I can’t get angry with Cesc Fabregas for running out of steam. The guy is still only 20, and yet he’s played so much football already. William Gallas’ frustration is partly at the knowledge that this was all too predictable. He was saying last summer that more experience was needed and he has been proved right. As an employee at the club, he must feel a bit odd. His peers are Lehmann and Gilberto. Everyone else (I’m guessing here, but I don’t think I’m too far out) is at least five years younger (okay, there’s Almunia, but you get my drift). He’s been through a lot more than most of his colleagues and there are times in your professional life when you need to look to people who have seen it and done it like yourself to get out of situations. He’s looking around him now and all he can see is players whose best years are ahead of them whilst his look most likely to be in the past. As a winner, he is desperate to be competing for prizes and yet at times, he probably feels he may be sacrificing the final years of his career waiting for his team-mates to grow up. It’s a feeling that he could probably have a long discussion with Thierry Henry about.

This is a situation that is part down to the new stadium (a necessary evil in respect of the way football has changed over the last 15 years) and part down to Arsene Wenger’s desire not to inhibit the development of the players he’s brought in at low cost. Yet, if Arsenal are a big club, they can afford to indulge in a couple of older heads to steady the ship and this is where, this season, the manager got it wrong.

I admit to writing the team off, but their position is an artificial one. Frankly, they are not, at the moment, the best team in the country. They say the table doesn’t lie, but although they were the best for a good portion of this campaign, I simply can’t see it lasting. It’s not just drawing at home to Villa, but the series of events that brought us to Saturday. The injuries – long and short term - which have limited the manager’s options when players do need a rest. Abou Diaby had a stinker on Saturday but was he really match fit? He looked so far off the pace, I suspect it was lack of fitness rather than commitment that made him look so poor. Then there is the lack of composure when required, surely down to inexperience. This young team are also suffering from mental fatigue and with the inability to cope with too many reverses they are struggling to turn the season back on course. The injury to Eduardo was probably the final nail in the coffin although credit to the players that they almost rallied enough in the second half at St Andrews. But the inability to put the game out of reach there, and Clichy’s loss of concentration are explained by the weaknesses listed already.

I am not laying into Arsene Wenger, just trying to make sense of this season and why it will probably end up without silverware. He has done a great job in setting the club up for a very promising future once he decides to call it a day. I am far from convinced it could have happened with any other manager.

The next two assignments are tough ones for different reasons. Milan are the inverse of Arsenal. Too much experience and not enough younger players. Well off the pace in their domestic league and with Europe their only chance of a trophy. They will play a cautious game at home and settle for penalties if need be. If they took this approach against Celtic a year back, they’ll do the same tomorrow evening. Arsenal’s best hope is to try and force the tempo, but it is a big ask. Still, football’s all about luck and the Gunners are due some.

As for Wigan next weekend, I received this email from Bob Ramsden yesterday…

As well as being a Gooner, I also follow Bradford Bulls rugby league team. We played at Wigan last night in terrible conditions with driving rain. The pitch was an absolute bog with players frequently slipping as they tried to accelerate; it was full of divots made by the players’ feet; at the end of the game it wasn’t even fit for rugby league.

Next Sunday, Arsenal visit Wigan. Do not expect a flat pitch; do not expect a grass covered pitch; do not expect an even bounce. If I was Mr Wenger I would get the lads down to Hackney Marshes for some practice (after drawing with AC Milan). They are going to get a hell of a shock when they see what they've got to tread on at Wigan.

I am not excusing the FA Cup performance at Old Trafford on the muddy pitch, but it was well watered ahead of the game despite already resembling something of a bog for a very good reason. It hinders Arsenal’s on-the-floor passing game.

Doubtless there will be a conversation between Steve Bruce and Alex Ferguson before Sunday, and even though the JJB pitch will look like a disgrace, do not be surprised to see the sprinklers giving it their all before Arsenal take the field. It’s a shame, but if you are not able to win a match playing football, then you take the crowd’s money to put on a circus. Little wonder the fans have stopped attending Wigan’s games. Next Sunday will be a huge battle for Arsenal, and this is where experience really counts. Looking at the fixture list when Arsenal were five points clear, you saw Birmingham away, Villa at home, Wigan away and Boro at home before things got tough. Tough came early.

It’s down to the players now. They are good enough to prove me wrong. Certainly, at home, the crowd aren’t going to make a difference. The support against Villa showed that there were many present who either did not care enough to make some noise or have simply become acceptant that this is the way football is and no longer make an effort. There was a bit more noise than normal, but not a lot. That’s it for the idea of turning our new stadium into a fortress now. If it wasn’t going to happen from the off against Villa it isn’t going to happen often enough to make the place intimidating as a matter of course. They play ‘The Wonder of You’ before kick off these days, but when I think of Ashburton Grove now, an Elvis movie title comes to mind: “That’s the way it is”. And it will only get worse. Still, that’s the way the game is going and it is not only Arsenal who suffer from a lack of vocal support at home.

So we are left with the desire of the team, mixed with the ability to find heart and composure after a difficult period. And a couple of slices of luck when it counts. Deep down, they may have it in them, but the momentum has gone at a time when it is needed more tan ever. And if Arsene Wenger can manage to land some silverware come May with the players that turned out on Saturday, then he truly is a miracle worker. Apologies for the downbeat nature of this editorial, but that is how I feel right now. Top of the league with ten matches and in the last 16 in Europe: I’d have been delighted with that last August. But I feel like I’m now witnessing a slide downhill rather than an extended blip.